Adoption as a social marker: Innovation diffusion with outgroup aversion

Abstract

Abstract. Social identities are among the key factors driving behavior in complex societies. Signals of social identity are known to influence individual behaviors in the adoption of innovations. Yet the population-level consequences of identity signaling on the diffusion of innovations are largely unknown. Here we use both analytical and agent-based modeling to consider the spread of a beneficial innovation in a structured population in which there exist two groups who are averse to being mistaken for each other. We investigate the dynamics of adoption and consider the role of structural factors such as demographic skew and communication scale on populationlevel outcomes. We find that outgroup aversion can lead to adoption being delayed or suppressed in one group, and that population-wide underadoption is common. Comparing the two models, we find that differential adoption can arise due to structural constraints on information flow even in the absence of intrinsic between-group differences in adoption rates. Further, we find that patterns of polarization in adoption at both local and global scales depend on the details of demographic organization and the scale of communication. This research has particular relevance to widely beneficial but identity-relevant products and behaviors, such as green technologies, where overall levels of adoption determine the positive benefits that accrue to society at large.

The Evolution of Covert Signaling

“…At the population level, we assumed that all individuals had an equal probability of encountering similar individuals, and that all similar and dissimilar individuals were equivalent. In reality, some individuals may be more or less likely to encounter similar individuals, perhaps related to differences in the tendency to be conformity-versus distinctiveness-seeking (Smaldino & Epstein, 2015), or reflecting minority-majority dynamics (Wimmer, 2013;Bunce & McElreath, 2018). Exploration of this variation opens the door to evaluating signaling and assortment strategies in stratified groups.…”

“…An extensive formal literature has developed exploring how arbitrary signals can facilitate assortment on unconscious norms and preferences (Castro & Toro, 2007;Efferson et al, 2008;Mace & Holden, 2005;McElreath et al, 2003;Moffett, 2013;Nettle & Dunbar, 1997). Language can also serve as a marker for social coordination (Nettle & Dunbar, 1997), as can visible purchasing and fashion choices (Berger & Heath, 2008;Smaldino et al, 2017).…”

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“…"Beta" buyers also represent a future research topic: authors that always get new releases and comment on them tend to have more network ties and influence, but are also more influenced by perceived product reputation and features and by novelty than 'regular' users [16], [17], [18]. Sentiment calculation should consider evaluating these specificities in a differentiated manner along the lifecycle of the PSS.…”

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