An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Diffusion to Plan and Evaluate Intervention Policies

Pescarmona, Gianpiero; Terna, Pietro; Acquadro, Alberto; Pescarmona, Paolo P.; Russo, Giuseppe; Sulis, Emilio; Terna, Stefano

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-91646-6_9

Cited by 11 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…However, the agent-based model is becoming more commonly used in simulating infectious disease transmission (Tracy et al, 2018). Both numerical (Arti and Bhatnagar, 2020;Chintalapudi et al, 2020;Ferguson et al, 2020;Lin et al, 2020;Moghadas et al, 2020;Rhodes et al, 2020;Verity et al, 2020;Xu and Li, 2020) and ABM (Silva et al, 2020;Wolfram, 2020;Gomez et al, 2021;Hinch et al, 2021;Pescarmona et al, 2021;Truszkowska et al, 2021;Lombardo et al, 2022) have been used to simulate COVID-19 transmission dynamics. The use of ABM in the extension of SIR models allows the introduction of individual-level heterogeneity and a more complex social network into the traditional SIR compartmental model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

et al. 2023

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IntroductionCoronavirus transmission is strongly influenced by human mobilities and interactions within and between different geographical regions. Human mobility within and between cities is motivated by several factors, including employment, cultural-driven, holidays, and daily routines.MethodWe developed a sustained metapopulation (SAMPAN) model, an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the effect of individual mobility and interaction behavior on the spreading of COVID-19 viruses across main cities on Java Island, Indonesia. The model considers social classes and social mixing affecting the mobility and interaction behavior within a sub-population of a city in the early pandemic. Travelers’ behavior represents the mobility among cities from central cities to other cities and commuting behavior from the surrounding area of each city.ResultsLocal sensitivity analysis using one factor at a time was performed to test the SAMPAN model, and we have identified critical parameters for the model. While validation was carried out for the Jakarta area, we are confident in implementing the model for a larger area with the concept of metapopulation dynamics. We included the area of Bogor, Depok, Bekasi, Bandung, Semarang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, and Malang cities which have important roles in the COVID-19 pandemic spreading on this island.DiscussionOur SAMPAN model can simulate various waves during the first year of the pandemic caused by various phenomena of large social mobilities and interactions, particularly during religious occasions and long holidays.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

et al. 2023

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“…The generalization of the model is simply a matter of additional calculations. The modelling of interactions can hopefully suggest new ideas to parallel approaches based, for instance, on agents methods [27].…”

Section: Modelling Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemics of mutating virus and society: a multi-scale active particles approach

Bellomo

Burini

Outada

2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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This article presents, within a multiscale framework, a search for a unified approach towards modelling the COVID-19 pandemic, from contagion to within-host dynamics. The modelling is focused on vaccination and therapeutical actions in general. The first part of our article is devoted to understanding the complex features of the system and to the design of a modelling rationale. Then, the modelling approach follows mainly focused on the competition between the proliferating virus and the immune system. Modelling considers also the action of vaccination plans related to the onset of new variants. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Kinetic exchange models of societies and economies’.

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“…The maximum amount of load-following and unit commitment ancillary services that Terna has to set up for the next day to balance the system is called tertiary replacement reserve and is dimensioned using a symmetric band (for up/downward regulation) evaluated through the 99.7% order quantile of the netload forecast errors. [43] Therefore, we define the system flexibility required to resolve the imbalance related to incorrect demand scheduling (i.e., the maximum amount of tertiary replacement reserve) as…”

Section: Italian Imbalance Regulatory Framework and Ancillary Service...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ancillary Services via Flexible Photovoltaic/Wind Systems and “Implicit” Storage to Balance Demand and Supply

et al. 2022

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Achieving the European Union renewable energy source penetration 2030 targets requires an increase in flexible resources to compensate for the variability/intermittency of solar and wind generation to ensure system safety and balancing. Herein, two readily deployable flexibility solutions to balance demand/supply as an alternative to building additional thermoelectric reserves are proposed. How the transmission system OPERATOR can use the ancillary services provided by a flexible photovoltaic (PV) fleet (solar regulation) or PV/wind fleet (variable renewable energy (VRE) regulation) together with a suitable underforecast and proactive curtailment of variable renewable generation (aka, implicit storage) to reduce current and future Italian imbalances is shown. How these flexibility solutions can become even more effective when combined with a strengthening of the transmission grid is shown. The imbalance reduction achievable by 2030 through solar/VRE regulation strategies would be of the order of 20–50% with zonal balancing and 27–80% with nationwide balancing is found. Imbalance costs would remain comparable with the business‐as‐usual (thermal generation) costs. A proactive curtailment of 5–17% of the total VRE generation is the environmental cost of stabilizing the system using VRE plants, avoiding the construction of thermoelectric reserves.

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An Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Diffusion to Plan and Evaluate Intervention Policies

Cited by 11 publications

References 27 publications

Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

Modeling social interaction and metapopulation mobility of the COVID-19 pandemic in main cities of highly populated Java Island, Indonesia: An agent-based modeling approach

Pandemics of mutating virus and society: a multi-scale active particles approach

Ancillary Services via Flexible Photovoltaic/Wind Systems and “Implicit” Storage to Balance Demand and Supply

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