An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan

Tufail, Saira; Batool, Sadia

doi:10.35536/lje.2013.v18.i2.a1

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…For the United States, Jaffe () found that gold returns had no significant relationship with expected inflation over the 1971–1987 period and Blose () found no relationship between nominal gold returns and expected inflation from 1988 to 2008. Tufail and Batool () reported that gold returns provided a complete hedge against unexpected but not expected inflation. Similarly, Ghazali et al () uncovered no significant relationship between gold returns and inflation expectation in Malaysia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?

Liu

et al. 2019

International Finance

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This study examines whether the expected inflation effect hypothesis adequately explains the causal relationship between inflation expectations and gold returns. A bootstrap full‐sample Granger causality test shows that gold returns cause inflation expectations rather than the reverse. To account for possible structural changes, we apply bootstrap subsample Granger causality tests with 60‐month windows. The results suggest that both professional forecasters' and consumers' inflation expectations have negative effects on gold returns in some but not all sample periods, contradicting the expected inflation effect hypothesis. No causality is found in other periods, consistent with the carrying cost hypothesis that the expected gain from gold due to higher inflation is offset by its carrying cost. Holding gold will not necessarily hedge against inflation because gold returns do not necessarily correlate with inflation expectation. Therefore, the carrying cost hypothesis more accurately explains the relationship between gold returns and inflation expectation than the expected inflation effect hypothesis does.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?

Liu

et al. 2019

International Finance

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“…That market has been steadily increasing for ten years. According to a World Bank estimate, the average size of a country's real estate assets constitutes between 60 and 70% of the country's total wealth; if these estimates are applied to Pakistan, the estimated size of the real estate sector would be $300 to $400 billion (Tufail & Batool, 2013). The transactions in the real estate market have been carried out by an increasing number of uneducated agents and dealers who do not have the necessary IT and finance related skills to serve their clientele.…”

Section: Market Competitiveness and Transaction Transparency In Pakistanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Under Invoicing in the Residential Real Estate Market in Pakistan

Wahid

Mantell

Mumtaz

2021

International Journal of Strategic Property Management

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In this paper the meaning of “under invoicing in a real estate market” signifies that the market value of real property exceeds its record value appearing in government documentation. The purpose of this study is to identify the level of under invoicing and determine the factors that affect the under invoicing in real estate markets in Pakistan. We apply OLS and Extreme Bounds Analysis techniques to test our propositions. The statistical sample consists of 338 real estate contracts. We find that under invoicing is determined by a multiplicity of factor. These include: the capital gains tax rate, the measurable amount of corruption in the economy, the risk-free rate, a buyer’s profession, the reputation of the local housing authority, and the degree of disequilibria in regional real estate markets. Our findings are consistent with four distinct hypotheses: (a) tax evasion hypothesis, (b) widening gap hypothesis, (c) a corruption hypothesis and (d) a signaling hypothesis. The evidence suggests that higher rates of taxation and a larger statistical incidence of corruption in markets tend to be associated with a greater probability of under-invoicing. The findings of the study have practical implications for those investors who are interested in real estate markets of emerging and developing economies.

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“…The increase in inflation shows an increase in the prices of goods in general, including rice and gold (Thufail & Batool, 2013). Gold is a determinant of the size of the zakat maal threshold, namely gold and silver zakat or currency zakat, trade zakat and money saving zakat.…”

Section: Based Onmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Inflation, Interest Rate, and Industrial Production Index (IPI) on the Amount of Zakat in Central Baznas Period 2011-2017

Saadillah¹,

Kusnendi²,

Firmansyah³

2019

KSS

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The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact inflation, interest rates, and industrial production index (IPI) on the amount of zakat at the Central BAZNAS from 2011 to 2017. The method used in this study was explanatory methods with quantitative approaches. The data analysis technique used is the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method, if the data is not stationary at the level and there is cointegration, the method used is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The data used in this study are time series data from January 2011 to December 2017 collected from the website of Bank Indonesia, the website of the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), and the website of the Central BAZNAS. The results of the VECM test show that in the short term inflation and interest rates each have a negative and not significant effect on the amount of zakat, while the IPI has a positive and insignificant effect on the amount of zakat. Whereas in the long run inflation has a significant negative effect on zakat receipts. Interest rates are negatively significant and IPI has a significant positive effect on the amount of zakat.

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An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan

Cited by 19 publications

References 56 publications

Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?

Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?

Under Invoicing in the Residential Real Estate Market in Pakistan

Impact of Inflation, Interest Rate, and Industrial Production Index (IPI) on the Amount of Zakat in Central Baznas Period 2011-2017

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