Assessing the Potential for Rare Precipitation Events with Standardized Anomalies and Ensemble Guidance at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

A Comparison between a Generalized Beta–Advection Model and a Classical Beta–Advection Model in Predicting and Understanding Unusual Typhoon Tracks in Eastern China Seas

“…As a matter of fact, the method of decomposing a total field into instantaneous climatic and anomalous components was proposed and used in anomaly forecasting in early 2000 Hart and Grumm 2001) and gained popularity for high-impact weather forecasts in recent years (Junker et al 2008(Junker et al , 2009Graham and Grumm 2010;Grumm 2011a,b;Graham et al 2013). Du et al (2014) further expanded this concept into ''ensemble anomaly forecasting'' by combining anomaly forecasting with ensemble forecasts to not only identify abnormal events but to also quantify the confidence of an anomaly forecast itself.…”

Potential of a probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting approach for the 28 September 2012 extreme flash flood in Murcia, Spain

“…With 8 this assumption and according to the continuity principle, the cumulative volume of storm flow becomes non linearly related to the excess rainfall volume, which is a function of cumulative rainfall, soil cover, land use and antecedent moisture (Chow et al, 1988). The SCS-CN model has been tested on several experimental areas and river basins worldwide (Ranzi et al, 2003;Amengual et al, 2007;Borga et al, 2007;Rabuffetti et al, 2008). A synthetic unit hydrograph provided by SCS (SCS-UH) is used to convert rainfall excess into direct runoff on a watershed.…”

“…events (Junker et al, 2009). Admittedly though, the ensemble mean is likely to forecast the general location of the maximum precipitation amounts best as small scale variability present in individual members is effectively averaged out.…”

Anomalous Atmospheric Events Leading to the Summer 2010 Floods in Pakistan

“…When synoptic-scale flow anomalies suggest that mesoscale storms forming in that environment are likely to have an unusually and particularly hazardous structure in relation to the terrain, such an interpretation could be extremely valuable in downscaling the synoptic-scale forecast flow pattern to predict patterns of flooding and thus helping to formulate advance warnings aimed at saving life and property in vulnerable regions such as the Indus Valley of Pakistan. We suggest that a methodology could be devised in which precipitable water and wind anomalies in the Pakistan region, predicted by global models, could be objectively scaled, for example using a method such as described by Junker et al (in a 2009 Bulletin article) for California storms, to determine the environments in which flooding is probable. The method could be refined further using the climatology of storm structure derived from TRMM PR data to relate these synoptic conditions to specific Himalayan storm types to determine whether the storms would be of the type most likely to cause catastrophic flooding.…”