Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement targets

Rajbhandari, Salony; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1857218

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The GHG emissions are expected to reach the level of 150-160 Mt CO2 in 2050, which is the level that corresponds to the Paris Agreement's goal. Rajbhandari (Rajbhandari & Limmeechokchai, 2020) suggested, in order to meet the Paris Agreement's 2DC and 1.5DC targets, Thailand's energy-related GHG emissions in 2050 should be at 280-300 Mt CO2 and 80-100 Mt CO2 , respectively. Therefore, if the conditions and actions in Clear can be met, Thailand will be able to achieve at least the target of the 2DC pathway.…”

Section: Energy-related Ghgmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Example of previous studies area study of energy technology alternatives towards the greenhouse gas targets (Rajbhandari and Limmeechokchai, 2020;Misila et al, 2020), bio-economy and land-water-energy NEXUS (Silalertruksa and Gheewala, 2019), energy transformation and disruption on power system (Wangjiraniran et al, 2017), and sustainable energy in transport.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Plausible Scenarios for Thai Sustainable Energy in 2050: Cloud and Clear

Wangjiraniran

Pongthanaisawan

Nakapreecha

et al. 2022

IJEEP

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This study’s goal is to illustrate future energy scenarios for Thailand in the year 2050: Cloud and Clear scenarios. Cloud depicts a scenario of an economy driven mainly by value-based industrial manufacturing. Security of energy supply is prioritized, with an emphasis on environment concerns and GHG emissions. Energy industry is dominated by incumbent businesses, which play important role in energy transition. Clean energy is gaining more market share, but fossil fuels remain the primary source of energy. Clear reflects the new economy driven by new S-curve businesses. Energy sustainability became first priority for national policy. Diverse options for end-users are available for self-management. New players can be competitor in Thai energy industry. Clean energy became one of the main energy sources. The quantitative results show that owing to the pandemic’s impact, short-term energy demand and GHG emissions decrease dramatically, then rebound and split into two scenarios: uptrend for Cloud and downtrend for Clear. Pathway to sustainable energy is revealed in Clear scenario. Peak energy demand can be reached within 2030. The peak of GHG emissions has already passed and will be approaching to the level of 2DC pathway. Therefore, more actions are required to achieve the ambitious goal of 1.5C.

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Section: Energy-related Ghgmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plausible Scenarios for Thai Sustainable Energy in 2050: Cloud and Clear

Wangjiraniran

Pongthanaisawan

Nakapreecha

et al. 2022

IJEEP

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“…The study period is 2015-2050. The end-use service demands in various sectors are estimated using GDP and population as the drivers of the end-use services, similar to the methods used in earlier studies of Thailand [18,19,30,38].…”

Section: Development Of Thailand Energy System Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The existing research in Thailand considers the CCS technologies and renewables in the supply side and energy efficiency improvement and fuel switching in the demand side as the pathway to meet net zero emissions consistent with the 1.5°C target [18,19]. The existing studies of Thailand have assessed the potential of GHG emissions reduction considering only the technological changes, while leaving aside the impact of behavioral changes and building designs in energy service demand reduction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy system transformation for attainability of net zero emissions in Thailand

Limmeechokchai

Pradhan²,

Chunark³

et al. 2022

IJSEPM

Self Cite

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This study analyzed energy and technological implications in the energy sector to attain net zero emissions in Thailand by 2050. The study used AIM/Enduse, a bottom-up type energy system model, as an analytical tool. A business-as-usual and a net zero emission scenario are analyzed. Net zero emission scenarios are assessed in terms of net zero greenhouse gas emissions (NZE-GHG). Results show that the GHG emissions from the energy sector in the BAU would reach 635 MtCO2e in 2050. Decarbonization of the energy sector and transition towards net zero emission by 2050 in Thailand would require rapid deployment of renewable energy sources like solar, wind and biomass. In net zero scenario, installed capacity of solar PV and wind for power generation in 2050 would reach 64 GW and 40 GW, respectively. In addition, this study assesses the role of green hydrogen in achieving net zero target. The 200 GW solar capacity would be required to produce green hydrogen for decarbonizing the transport, industrial as well as power sector. The high carbon sequestration from LULUCF sector in Thailand will make it possible to reach net zero emission with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology in the energy sector. Additional bioenergy or CCS technologies will need to be deployed in the power sector if the renewables cannot be deployed to the desirable extent.

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“…Low-carbon development, a chief means to mitigate global warming, has led the world economic development trend. The excessive use of fossil energy has led to a continuous increase in global carbon emissions and environmental pollution (Zhou et al, 2019;Rajbhandari and Limmeechokchai, 2020;Monjardino et al, 2021). As the world's most enormous energy consumer and producer, China has increasing international pressure to control its rising greenhouse gas emissions and protect the environment (Liu et al, 2017;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Could China's Long-term Low-carbon Energy Transformation Achieve the Double Dividend Effect for the Economy and Environment?

Wang

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Achieving low-carbon energy transformation is vital for coordinating economic growth and environmental improvement to satisfy the carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality targets. Existing studies, however, have been dominated by the mere exploration of the low-carbon transformation pathway with little consideration of the importance of energy substitution in low-carbon transformation. Doing so is believably unable to gain the double dividend effect for the economy and environment. Accordingly, this paper develops three energy-target scenarios, taking into account energy structure, electrification level, and carbon mitigation targets by 2030 announced by the Chinese government. A dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM, is employed to examine the economic and environmental effects under different pathways of long-term low-carbon transformation. Firstly, we detect that China's primary energy consumption and electricity production structure would substantially transfer to low-carbon and clean along with all three energy-target scenarios. Secondly, due to the anticipated decline of fossil energy consumption, especially coal consumption, China's CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions in 2020-2030 would also possibly vastly abate with all the scenarios. Besides, it is highly conceivable for China to achieve its peak carbon emission of 12.4 GtCO2 in 2028 if it serves the comparatively more stringent low-carbon transformation pathways. Lastly, different pathways would also produce varying positive impacts on China's macro-economy and achieve the different extent of double dividend effects. The research concludes with a recommendation of tentative improvement policies towards low-carbon transformation under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, including promoting energy substitution, renewable energy development, and low-carbon technologies.

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Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement targets

Cited by 21 publications

References 37 publications

Plausible Scenarios for Thai Sustainable Energy in 2050: Cloud and Clear

Plausible Scenarios for Thai Sustainable Energy in 2050: Cloud and Clear

Energy system transformation for attainability of net zero emissions in Thailand

Could China's Long-term Low-carbon Energy Transformation Achieve the Double Dividend Effect for the Economy and Environment?

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