Abstract. The results of a high resolution Bayesian inversion over the City of Cape Town, South Africa, are presented, which used observations of atmospheric CO 2 from sites at Robben Island and Hangklip lighthouses collected over a sixteen month period from March 2012 until June 2013. A Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by the regional climate model Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) was used to provide the sensitivities of the observations to the surface sources and boundary concentrations. This regional climate model was dynamically coupled to the CABLE (Community Atmosphere
5Biosphere Land Exchange) model, which provided prior estimates of the biogenic fluxes. Prior estimates of the fossil fuel emissions were obtained from an inventory analysis specifically carried out for this inversion exercise, making use of vehicle count data, population census data, fuel usage at industrial point sources, and aviation and shipping vessel counts. The inversion solved for the actual concentration measurements at each site, which was made possible by the use of the Cape Point background site to provide information on the boundaries, and was necessary due to the effect of topography on the atmospheric 10 transport, affecting particularly the sensitivity of the Robben Island site to the surface fluxes. Night-time observations were included, but allocated much larger errors compared to the daytime observations. The inversion was able to substantially improve the agreement between the modelled and observed concentrations, and able to better represent the diurnal cycle in the concentrations compared with the prior modelled concentrations. The mean bias in the modelled concentrations was reduced from -2.9 ppm, with interquartile range -9.1 to 3.7, for the prior modelled 15 concentrations, to 0.5, with interquartile range -1.5 to 1.5, for the posterior modelled concentrations at Robben Island, and from a bias of 2.4 ppm in the prior modelled concentrations at the Hangklip site, with interquartile range -2.3 to 6.5, to a bias of 0.04, with interquartile range -1.1 to 0.8. The standard deviations of the posterior residuals at both sites were reduced to values below that of the observed concentrations.The inversion solved for working week and weekend fossil fuel emissions, and weekly biogenic fluxes, each split into day model errors or the uncertainty in the fluxes was not specified high enough for some months. A companion paper on sensitivity analyses will address different options for the specification of the correlations between errors in the modelled concentrations, how these prior errors are determined, how correlations are determined between the prior fluxes, and how the state vector is specified. Greater confidence is given to the inversion's ability to correct the total flux within each pixel, rather than the individual flux estimates.