Bayesian-based conflict conversion path discovery for waste management policy implementation in China

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to analyze reform path for waste management policy implementation. With reference to the Bayesian theory, this study provides a dynamic policy conversion method through various context settings. Furthermore, this study attempts to present an empirical research paradigm. Design/methodology/approach Matland’s “ambiguity-conflict model” is applied to explain the problems and reform paths of China’s waste management policy implementation. Integrating structure discovery and bibliometrics into qualitative analysis, this study used search data from literature search engine with specific themes to achieve structure learning of Bayesian network with key factors refined in waste management policy. Findings The results show that China’s waste management policy implementation belongs to symbolic implementation with high ambiguity and high conflict. Four basic conversion paths for the waste management policy are proposed, which are classified by length and stability. Then, it is possible to locate the factors, paths and types of policy implementation through involvement analysis with features of each path and each district of policy implementation. Public education holds direct but unstable impact on waste management. Economic incentives hold continuous but gradually diminishing impact. Perceived policy effectiveness plays the crucial role like a central bridge. Resident conditions have a positive impact, which could be enhanced through economic development of China. The impact of subjective norm on waste management is not significant. But subjective norm has the potential breakthrough for solving stagnation of waste classification policy. However, the impacts from each factor may change along with economy growth and technology innovation. Originality/value This study uses the “ambiguity-conflict model” to position China’s waste classification policy and suggests that structure discovery methods help understand feasible reform paths for reform policy. The integration of theoretical analysis and quantitative simulation can achieve a comprehensive analysis of problems and solutions in waste management policy implementation of China. Promotion and education, economic incentives, perceived value, behavior control, subjective norm, perceived policy effectiveness, informal waste recycling system and residential conditions are explored as key factors for waste classification policy implementation as a representative in waste management policy. The role of each key factor and features of each conversion paths are integrated to position reform paths in the ambiguity-conflict model. This work helps to explain the stagnation of waste management policy implementation from the perspective of dynamic structure evolution, and some specific suggestions to get out of stagnation are proposed.

Failing Services on Urban Waste Management in Developing Countries: A Review on Symptoms, Diagnoses, and Interventions

“…Governance and political processes were investigated in a number of studies. Using Matland's ambiguity/conflict model, Yang et al conclude that the governance of SWM can be categorized as "symbolic implementation" indicating the occurrence of conflicting interests along with vagueness on aims and means [63]. Under these circumstances, governance has to provide clear frameworks and has to showcase effectiveness.…”

“…Nidugala et al claim that a combination of a firm strategy and strong political and operational leadership will work [64]. Yang et al claim that symbolic implementation of policies calls for economic incentives, display of governance effectiveness, and the promotion of social acceptance and social control [63]. Nzalalemba et al bring an organizational/psychological aspect in play when narrating the immense task resting on the shoulders of municipal authorities, having to accomplish this task with little knowledge and under brutal circumstances as in the Congo.…”

“…Nidugala et al claim that a combination of a firm strategy and strong political and operational leadership will work [64]. Yang et al claim that symbolic implementation of policies calls for economic incentives, display of governance effectiveness, and the promotion of social acceptance and social control [63].…”

Bayesian-Based NIMBY Crisis Transformation Path Discovery for Municipal Solid Waste Incineration in China

“…Bayesian approach is an attempt of dynamic modeling on the NIMBY crisis transformation. Admittedly, other posteriori conceptual models, such as review technique and graphic evaluation and event tree analysis could have advantages in the field of project and technique, but not in the field of policy implementation, which is a field with high uncertainty, especially with human behavior [41]. Bayesian network is a mature graphical representation method that uses Bayes' theorem to encode conditional probabilistic relationships among uncertain, unpredicted, imprecise and complex variables [75].…”

“…Nevertheless, co-word analysis not only reduce the data into a structured presentation, but can abstract and project the data from gray literature based on the nature of words [34]. Bayesian network is one of the most effective theoretical models for uncertain knowledge representation and reasoning applied in numerous fields [35], such as customer behavior [36], energy police [37], supply chain [38], design and manufacturing [39] and environmental governance [40][41][42]. Importantly, it also has the qualities to be very useful in predicting the effectiveness of various strategies and selecting the best from them [43].…”