Changes in duration of dry and wet spells associated with air temperatures in Russia

Ye, Hengchun

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaae0d

Cited by 27 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 22 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Figure shows the spatial patterns in PRCP, SAT, PET, and AI, which provided more insight into uneven spatial SM patterns. The spatial patterns of trends in PRCP and AI were very similar (Figures a and b), indicating that PRCP was the dominant factor that determined changes in aridity, because most rainfall concentrated in the warm season over large parts of Eurasia, such as China (Gu, Zhang, Singh, & Shi, ), North Africa (Thomas & Nigam, ), Indian Peninsula (Ghosh et al, ), and Russia (Ye, ). Furthermore, the spatial patterns of trends in PRCP and SM were obviously comparable.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Intensification and Expansion of Soil Moisture Drying in Warm Season Over Eurasia Under Global Warming

Zhang

et al. 2019

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Soil moisture (SM) is a key hydrological component regulating the net ecosystem energy exchange at the land‐atmosphere boundary layer over the continents via heat fluxes and relevant feedback on precipitation. Due to its ecological and meteor‐hydrological implications, SM change is of great significance in Eurasia that has the highest population density and fragile ecological environment. Using monthly data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System, this study investigated SM changes over Eurasia during the warm season (May–September). It was found that recent 63 years witnessed widespread decreasing SM across Eurasia during the warm season. Regions with a drying SM tendency kept expanding till the 1990s. Specifically, the largest decreasing magnitude of SM with the aridity index ranging 0.5–0.6 and 1.0–1.1 was found along the semi‐arid and dry‐humid transition regions, respectively. In addition, more significant drying SM was observed in Sahel, northern Asia, northeastern Asia, and western Europe. Weakening West African monsoon (WAM)/East Asia summer monsoon did not benefit the propagation of water vapor flux to the Sahel regions/northeastern and northern Asia, and hence decreased SM in these regions. Besides, results by the maximum covariance analysis highlighted the roles of warming climate in SM variations over Eurasia during the warm season. Global climate models also indicate decreased SM due to global warming and projects continuously decreasing SM in the warm season over the 21st century under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Decreasing SM across the Eurasia and related ecological and environmental implications should cause international concern.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Intensification and Expansion of Soil Moisture Drying in Warm Season Over Eurasia Under Global Warming

Zhang

et al. 2019

JGR Atmospheres

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With regards to D, an increasing frequency of long-duration events has been seen in the Netherlands (Zolina et al 2013), while only small changes were found in the annual maximum duration over Europe (Donat et al 2013). Ye (2018) showed increases in the seasonal mean duration across Russia and demonstrated that locations with the largest increases exhibit a higher rise in seasonal mean temperature. However little attention has been given to quantifying the probability of long-duration and high magnitude DH events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events in Europe during summer (1950–2013)

Manning

Widmann

Bevacqua

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

147

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The propagation of drought from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought can be accelerated by high temperatures during dry periods. The occurrence of extremely long-duration dry periods in combination with extremely high temperatures may drive larger soil moisture deficits than either extreme occurring alone, and lead to severe impacts. In this study, we propose a framework to both characterise long-duration meteorological droughts that co-occur with extremely high temperatures and quantify their probability. We term these events as long-duration, dry and hot (DH) events and characterise them by their duration (D) and magnitude (M). D is defined as the consecutive number of days with precipitation below 1 mm, while M is the maximum daily maximum temperature during an event. A copula-based approach is then employed to estimate the probability of DH events. The framework is applied to Europe during the summer months of June, July and August. We also assess the change in probability that has occurred over the historical period 1950-2013 and find an increased probability of DH events throughout Europe where rising temperatures are found to be the main driver of this change. Dry periods are becoming hotter, leading to an increase in the occurrence of long-duration dry periods with extremely high temperatures. Some parts of Europe also show an increased probability of long-duration events although the relative change is not as strong as that seen with temperature. The results point to a predominant thermodynamic response of DH events to global warming and reaffirm previous research that soil moisture drought events are setting in faster and becoming more severe due to a change in the contributing meteorological hazards. It is hoped that the framework applied here will provide a starting point for further analysis of DH events in other locations and for the assessment of climate models.

show abstract

“…A considerable threat to society from the observed global climate change comes from the changes in precipitation characteristics. In Northern Eurasia (NE), increasing precipitation intensities and the occurrence of heavy rain events (Semenov and Bengtsson 2002, Groisman et al 2005, Mokhov et al 2005, Ye et al 2015, Donat et al 2016, Zolina and Bulygina 2016, and changes in the duration of wet and dry spells (Khon et al 2007, Zolina et al 2010, Ye 2018, affect national economies by modulating streamflow and water availability (Mokhov et al 2003, Milly et al 2005, Shkolnik et al 2018 and causing local devastating flashfloods (Meredith et al 2015b) or large-scale deluges (Mokhov 2014, Mokhov andSemenov 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

Chernokulsky

Kozlov

Zolina

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Long-term changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia (NE) over the last five decades are estimated. Different types of precipitation are separated according to their genesis using routine meteorological observations of precipitation, weather conditions, and morphological cloud types for the period 1966-2016. From an initial 538 stations, the main analysis is performed for 326 stations that have no gaps and meet criteria regarding the artificial discontinuity absence in the data. A moderate increase in total precipitation over the analyzed period is accompanied by a relatively strong growth of convective precipitation and a concurrent decrease in stratiform precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation totals, precipitation intensity and heavy precipitation sums depict major changes in summer, while the relative contribution of the two precipitation types to the total precipitation (including the contribution of heavy rain events) show the strongest trends in transition seasons. The contribution of heavy convective showers to the total precipitation increases with the statistically significant trend of 1%-2% per decade in vast NE regions, reaching 5% per decade at a number of stations. The largest increase is found over the southern Far East region, mostly because of positive changes in convective precipitation intensity with a linear trend of more than 1 mm/day/ decade, implying a 13.8% increase per 1°C warming. In general, stratiform precipitation decreases over the majority of NE regions in all seasons except for winter. This decrease happens at slower rates in comparison to the convective precipitation changes. The overall changes in the character of precipitation over the majority of NE regions are characterized by a redistribution of precipitation types toward more heavy showers.

show abstract

Changes in duration of dry and wet spells associated with air temperatures in Russia

Cited by 27 publications

References 22 publications

Intensification and Expansion of Soil Moisture Drying in Warm Season Over Eurasia Under Global Warming

Intensification and Expansion of Soil Moisture Drying in Warm Season Over Eurasia Under Global Warming

Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events in Europe during summer (1950–2013)

Observed changes in convective and stratiform precipitation in Northern Eurasia over the last five decades

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About