Changes in Spring and Summer Phenology in Poland — Responses of Selected Plant Species to Air Temperature Variations

Jabłońska, Katarzyna; Kwiatkowska-Falińska, Anna J.; Czernecki, Bartosz; Walawender, Jakub P.

doi:10.3161/15052249pje2015.63.3.002

Cited by 24 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…A significant temperature increase occurred, among others, in the warm part of the year and translated into a prolongation of the intensive growing season and a significant increase in thermal resources during the period of active growth of plants (Żmudzka 2012). The increase in temperature at the beginning of the growing season is the reason for the early phenological stages in Poland (Jabłońska et al 2015). Skaugen and Tveito (2004) forecast a prolongation of the vegetation season due to the expected increase in air temperature in the warm mid-year by 2015.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of thermal and precipitation conditions in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966–2015

Tomczyk

Szyga–Pluta

2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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The aim of the study was to identify the thermal and precipitation conditions and their changes in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015. Data on average daily air temperature and daily precipitation totals for 30 stations from the period of 1966-2015 were used. The data were obtained from the collections of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute. The growing season was defined as the period of average daily air temperature ≥ 5°C. The mathematical formulas proposed by Gumiński (1948) were used to determine its start and end dates. In the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015, there were more significant changes in the thermal conditions than there were in the precipitation conditions. In terms of long-term trends over the study period, thermal conditions during the growing season are characterised by an increase in mean air temperature, an increase in the sum of air temperatures and an increasing occurrence of seasons classified as abovenormal seasons. Precipitation conditions of the growing season show large temporal and spatial variations in precipitation and a predominance of normal conditions. The changes in precipitation were not statistically significant, except for Świnoujście.

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Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability of thermal and precipitation conditions in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966–2015

Tomczyk

Szyga–Pluta

2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Additionally, phenological changes are usually strongly correlated with monthly mean temperatures (Menzel et al 2006). An analysis of phenological observations in Poland conducted by Tomaszewska and Rutkowski (1999) and Jabłońska et al (2015) for shows that the onset of vegetation in the spring season tend to occur earlier in the following 10-year periods, while other phenological seasons seemed to be stable. According to Kożuchowski and Degirmendżić (2005), since the 1990s, onset dates have advanced, but due to the tendency toward earlier ending dates of the seasons, the length of the growing season did not change.…”

Section: Long-term Trends Of Duration and Onset Dates Of Thermal Seasmentioning

confidence: 99%

The thermal seasons variability in Poland, 1951–2010

Czernecki

Miętus

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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The aim of this study is to detect variability and changes in the occurrence of the thermal seasons in Poland during the period from 1951 to 2010. A monthly temperature dataset using average area values allowed the researchers to set proper occurrence dates for the thermal seasons' beginnings and length according to the following criteria: winter (t < 0°C), early spring (0-5°C), spring (5-15°C), summer (t > 15°C), autumn (5-15°C) and early winter (0-5°C). Statistically significant long-term trends have been detected for the occurrence dates of the thermal seasons' beginnings and season length. Seasonal variability accelerated significantly since the end of the twentieth century. The trend of limiting wintertime in Poland is 0.64 days per year, while summer and early spring seasons are longer by approximately 0.30 and 0.25 days per year, respectively. All seasons since thermal early spring until thermal summer tend to occur earlier, while the following seasons have the opposite trend. As a result, the number of years without thermal winter has substantially increased in the past 20 years. Simultaneously, thermal summer became the longest season in 85 % of years after 1990 in comparison to less than 50 % in the period from 1951 to 1970. Also, the change in the annual course of monthly mean temperature results in the fact that thermal spring is becoming longer than thermal autumn.

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“…On the other hand, air temperature and its indices are commonly identified as a reliable proxy for determining phenological changes [21,[23][24][25][26]. Therefore, to ensure reproducibility, researchers have decided to use the nearest node of a freely available ECA&D [27].…”

Section: Meteorological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1), covering different climatic regions of Poland. Syringa vulgaris L. and Aesculus hippocastanum L. flowering observations were chosen as the indicator species of the phenological late spring season, which is characterized by a relatively small variation in the onset dates [21]. That may suggest a distinguishable physical signal affecting the physiological reaction of both species, and might therefore be suitable for finding robust predictors applied for regression models.…”

Section: Phenological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014

Czernecki

Jabłońska

2016

Acta Agrobot

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Phenology is primarily seen as an indicator of the impacts of climate change. The strongest biological signal of climatic change is revealed by phenological data from the period after 1990. Unfortunately, the Polish nationwide network of phenological monitoring was terminated in 1992, and was only reactivated in 2005. Here, we attempt to reconstruct late spring phenophases of flowering of Syringa vulgaris L. and Aesculus hippocastanum L. across several sites in Poland from 1951 to 2014 using the GIS-based approach (if observations from neighboring stations were available) and multiple regression modeling with stepwise screening and bootstrap resampling. It was found that the air temperature and its indices explain over 60% of the variance, giving an accuracy of 3.0-3.4 days (mean absolute error) and correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.78 for lilac and horse chestnut, respectively. Altogether, both plant species showed a statistically significant advancement in the onset of flowering with an average rate of 1.7 days per decade. We also found that the final trend is the result of rapid acceleration of the increase in air temperature after the 1990s, while most of the trends for late spring were ambiguous before that period.

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Changes in Spring and Summer Phenology in Poland — Responses of Selected Plant Species to Air Temperature Variations

Cited by 24 publications

References 13 publications

Variability of thermal and precipitation conditions in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966–2015

Variability of thermal and precipitation conditions in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966–2015

The thermal seasons variability in Poland, 1951–2010

Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014

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