Characterizing Species at Risk II:  Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan

Marcot, Bruce G.; Hohenlohe, Paul A.; Morey, Steve; Holmes, Russ; Molina, Randy; Turley, Marianne; Huff, Mark H.; Laurence, J.A.

doi:10.5751/es-01781-110212

Cited by 30 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…However, providing for multiple scoring rounds and guided discussions could result in major changes in some panelists' judgments (e.g., Marcot et al 2006), although it is best to not conduct additional rounds when outcomes seem to have stabilized (Armstrong 2001).…”

Section: Value Of Multiple Scoring Roundsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Expert Panel Approach to Assessing Potential Effects of Bull Trout Reintroduction on Federally Listed Salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon

Marcot

Allen

Morey

et al. 2012

N American J Fish Manag

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The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus is an apex predator in native fish communities in the western USA and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Restoration of this species has raised concerns over its potential predatory impacts on native fish fauna. We held a five-person expert panel to help determine potential impacts of reintroducing bull trout into the Clackamas River, northwest Oregon, on the viability of four anadromous salmonid populations that are listed as threatened under the ESA: spring and fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, coho salmon O. kisutch, and winter steelhead O. mykiss. The panel session was rigorously structured and used a modified Delphi process with structured expert elicitation, disclosure, discussion, and brainstorming. Each panelist distributed 100 score points among seven categories of potential bull trout impact (from no impact to very high impact) on extinction probabilities for the anadromous salmonids. Results were provided by individual panelists rather than as a group consensus and were summarized as means and variations in scores to express the panelists' individual uncertainty, variability among the panelists, and expected differences among the affected salmonids. Score results suggested that panelists viewed the potential impact of bull trout as very low or moderately low for spring Chinook salmon, coho salmon, and winter steelhead and mostly none to very low for fall Chinook salmon. Panelists also provided 19 possible monitoring activities and 21 possible management actions for assessing potential impacts and taking remedial action if bull trout are found to have unacceptable adverse effects. Results of the panel were used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to help craft and execute a plan to reintroduce bull trout into the Clackamas River system under the ESA. This rigorous expert panel process can be used for a wide range of evaluations in situations where empirical data are sparse or ecological interactions are too complex for explicit analytic solution.

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Section: Value Of Multiple Scoring Roundsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Expert Panel Approach to Assessing Potential Effects of Bull Trout Reintroduction on Federally Listed Salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon

Marcot

Allen

Morey

et al. 2012

N American J Fish Manag

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“…For the assessment of rare animals, there is no relevant information, so these three elements are established by means of an expert panel. The expert panel consists of the authors: an ornithologist and several specialists in environmental management or information systems, who formulate the BBN model according to the guidelines proposed by Marcot et al (2006), as shown in Fig. 3.…”

Section: Bayesian Belief Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using fuzzy logic to generate conditional probabilities in Bayesian belief networks: a case study of ecological assessment

Liu

Kuo

Yeh

et al. 2013

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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The survival of rare animals is an important concern in an environmental impact assessment. However, it is very difficult to quantitatively predict the possible effect that a development project has on rare animals, and there is a heavy reliance on expert knowledge and judgment. In order to improve the credibility of expert judgment, this study uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to visually represent expert knowledge and to clearly explain the inference process. For the case study, the primary difficulty is in determining a large amount of conditional probabilities in the BBN, because there is a lack of sufficient data concerning rare animals. Therefore, a new method that uses fuzzy logic to systematically generate these probabilities is proposed. The combination of the BBN and the fuzzy logic system is used to assess the possible future population status of the Pheasant-tailed jacana and the associated probabilities, which have been affected by the construction of the Taiwan High-Speed Rail. The analysis shows that a restoration program would successfully preserve the species, because in the restoration area, the BBN model predicts that there is a 75.49 % probability that the species will flourish in the future.

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“…In natural resource management, BBNs have been used to analyze the effects of land planning on wildlife (Howes et al, 2010;La Morgia et al, 2008;Marcot, 2006), and in conservation planning for potentially rare and endangered wildlife species (Marcot et al, 2006a;Steventon, 2008). BBNs have also been applied to landscape management (Bacon et al, 2002;Ticehurst et al, 2011) and management of ecosystems and biodiversity (McCann et al, 2006;Nyberg et al, 2006;Pollino et al, 2007;Shenton et al, 2011).…”

Section: Bridging Between Systems Thinking and The Bayesian Belief Nementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This helps identify which inputs most affect the output, and is an important process in model testing, providing an understanding of the influential pathways of a single variable (node) or array of nodes on another variable through the Nguyen Huu Hoang-2017 124 developed BBNs (Howes et al, 2010;Marcot et al, 2006a;Marcot et al, 2001). For categorical variables, sensitivity analysis is a calculation of entropy reduction, while for continuous variables, variance reduction is used.…”

Section: Model Validation and Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Intermediate nodes (nodes with both incoming and outgoing arrows), are referred to as "summary child nodes". Response variables are represented by nodes that have no outgoing arrows and are referred to as "output child nodes" (Marcot et al, 2006a;McCann et al, 2006;Renken and Mumby, 2009). The behavior of any BBN depends on the conditional probabilities incorporated in the conditional probability tables (CPTs) which are used to explain the causal links between nodes.…”

Section: An Overview Of Bayesian Belief Network (Bbn)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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A study of the drivers of land use change in the Ha Tien Plain region of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Nguyen¹

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The wetlands of the Mekong Delta (MD) have contributed prominently to economic development in Vietnam, especially to agricultural and fisheries development. Unfortunately, the design of wetland utilization has traditionally been considered from an economic rather than ecological perspective, and wetlands utilization has suffered from a lack of scientific guidance. Many wetlands have been lost because their full value to society was not taken into account. Furthermore, the status of the delta's biodiversity is both poorly known and poorly documented. Decades of over-exploitation of the wetland ecosystems have had detrimental effects on the environment. The maintenance of the important economic functions of the MD is dependent on maintaining the wetlands' ecosystem functions.This thesis addresses several gaps in the broader wetland conservation literature by focusing on the research problem "How can the drivers of land use change in the study area be better managed to lead to more sustainable outcomes?" Using Systems Thinking in combination with Bayesian Belief Networks modelling methods, and a case study of the Phu My Lepironia grassland biodiversity conservation in Kien Giang, Vietnam, this thesis examines how successful community-based wetlands conservation can be achieved in the Mekong Delta. The study is comprised of the following components: (1) a review of the history of the drivers of wetlands degradation in the MD in order to better understand the transformation of the delta's wetlands in different periods, and an analyses of the driving forces of wetland loss and the underlying causes that derive from the differing policies of political regimes; (2) a study of various factors that influence wetlands grassland degradation and the likely consequences of conservation of the wetlands for carbon stocks; and (3) an analysis of the factors affecting how local communities' decide to make changes in their land use practices, and policy interventions that lead to the enhancement of livelihoods and improved sustainability of wetland grassland conservation in the study area.The drivers that have contributed to wetland loss and degradation in the Mekong Delta over the course of 200 years can be divided into five periods. The drivers of wetland losses have included: (1) resettlement and economic development policies; (2) population growth and urbanization; (3) demand for food and reclamation of wetlands for agriculture, construction of canals and construction of dikes for flood protection systems; (4) expansion of travel systems (waterways and roads); and (5) exploitation of wetlands natural resources. As a result of these factors, only 0.068 million ha of the original 4.0 million ha of the MD currently remain as a primary swamp forest ecosystem.ii The analysis presented in this thesis estimates the value of CO2 sequestered by different Mekong Delta wetland ecosystems (mangroves, Melaleuca swamps and wetland grasslands) to be between 5.53 Mt CO2e for grasslands ecosystem to 37.49 Mt CO2e for mangrove ecosystem...

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Characterizing Species at Risk II: Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract: Characterizing species at risk II: using Bayesian belief networks as decision support tools to determine species conservation categories under the Northwest Forest Plan. Ecology and Society 11(2): 12.

Cited by 30 publications

References 11 publications

An Expert Panel Approach to Assessing Potential Effects of Bull Trout Reintroduction on Federally Listed Salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon

An Expert Panel Approach to Assessing Potential Effects of Bull Trout Reintroduction on Federally Listed Salmonids in the Clackamas River, Oregon

Using fuzzy logic to generate conditional probabilities in Bayesian belief networks: a case study of ecological assessment

A study of the drivers of land use change in the Ha Tien Plain region of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

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