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Characterizing species at risk II: using Bayesian belief networks as decision support tools to determine species conservation categories under the Northwest Forest Plan. Ecology and Society 11(2): 12.

The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus is an apex predator in native fish communities in the western USA and is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). Restoration of this species has raised concerns over its potential predatory impacts on native fish fauna. We held a five-person expert panel to help determine potential impacts of reintroducing bull trout into the Clackamas River, northwest Oregon, on the viability of four anadromous salmonid populations that are listed as threatened under the ESA: spring and fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, coho salmon O. kisutch, and winter steelhead O. mykiss. The panel session was rigorously structured and used a modified Delphi process with structured expert elicitation, disclosure, discussion, and brainstorming. Each panelist distributed 100 score points among seven categories of potential bull trout impact (from no impact to very high impact) on extinction probabilities for the anadromous salmonids. Results were provided by individual panelists rather than as a group consensus and were summarized as means and variations in scores to express the panelists' individual uncertainty, variability among the panelists, and expected differences among the affected salmonids. Score results suggested that panelists viewed the potential impact of bull trout as very low or moderately low for spring Chinook salmon, coho salmon, and winter steelhead and mostly none to very low for fall Chinook salmon. Panelists also provided 19 possible monitoring activities and 21 possible management actions for assessing potential impacts and taking remedial action if bull trout are found to have unacceptable adverse effects. Results of the panel were used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to help craft and execute a plan to reintroduce bull trout into the Clackamas River system under the ESA. This rigorous expert panel process can be used for a wide range of evaluations in situations where empirical data are sparse or ecological interactions are too complex for explicit analytic solution.

Legal classification of species requires scientific and values-based components, and how those components interact depends on how people frame the decision. Is classification a negotiation of trade-offs, a decision on how to allocate conservation efforts, or simply a comparison of the biological status of a species to a legal standard? The answers to problem-framing questions such as these influence decision making in

Many species around the world are declining precipitously as a result of multiple threats and changing climate. Managers tasked with protecting species often face difficult decisions in regard to identifying which threats should be addressed, given limited resources and uncertainty in the success of any identified management action. On Kaua'i Island, Hawai'i, USA, forest bird species have experienced accelerated declines over the last 20 years, and 2 species, the 'akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) and 'akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris), are now at the brink of extinction. Both species face multiple threats, and managers face difficult decisions on whether to mitigate threats in the wild, establish a captive population as insurance against extinction, translocate birds to novel locations, or some combination of these actions.Each set of actions (alternatives) would require substantial resources with considerable uncertainty in success. In 2014, we brought together 14 experts representing biologists and managers familiar with the species and island to develop a conservation strategy under a structured decision making (SDM) framework, an approach for making complex decisions under uncertainty. The group's challenge was to identify a set of alternatives that reduces the risk of extinction, set the foundation for one or more genetically viable, reproducing, stable to