Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport

Wagena, Moges B.; Sommerlot, A.; Abiy, Anteneh Z.; Collick, Amy S.; Langan, Simon; Fuka, Daniel R.; Easton, Zachary M.

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1785-z

Cited by 57 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…There have been several studies on future hydroclimatic variability impacting the BNB ( Adem et al, 2016 ; Aich et al, 2014 ; Arsano and Tamrat, 2005 ; Beyene and Meissner, 2010 ; Sutcliffe and Parks, 1999 ) as well as on corresponding historic variability ( Conway, 2000 ; Kebede et al, 2006 ; Mccartney et al, 2012 ). Very few studies have coupled climate change models with watershed models ( Adem et al, 2016 ; Beyene et al, 2009 ; Wagena et al, 2016 ). Model coupling is critical to assess the possible impacts of climate change on both regional water resources and local landscape erosion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Roth

Lemann

Zeleke

et al. 2018

Heliyon

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Drawing on hydrology, rainfall, and climatic data from the past 25 years, this article investigates the effects of climate change on water resources in the transnational Blue Nile Basin (BNB). The primary focus is on determining the long-term temporal and seasonal changes in the flows of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia at the border to Sudan. This is important because the Blue Nile is the main tributary to the Nile river, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt. Therefore, to begin with long-term trends in hydrological time series were detected by means of both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using several sub-basins and new high-resolution land use and soil maps. Future climate change impacts were projected using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions based on three different climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Projected time series were analysed for changes in rainfall and streamflow trends. Climate change scenario modelling suggested that the precipitation will increase from 7% to 48% and that streamflow from the BNB could increase by 21% to 97%. The results provide a basis for evaluating future impacts of climate change on the upper Blue Nile River (Abay River). This is the main river basin contributing to the Nile and a source of water for millions of people in Sudan and Egypt, downstream from Ethiopia. Three models (CCCMA, CNRM, MRI) were applied in this research, within two future time periods (2046–2064 and 2081–2099) and one scenario (A1B). The Abay Basin was divided into seven sub-basins, six of which were used as inlets to the lowest basin at the border to Sudan. The above-mentioned results show that under current climate change scenarios there is a strong seasonal shift to be expected from the present main rainfall season (June to September) to an earlier onset from January to May with less pronounced peaks but longer duration of the rainfall season. This has direct consequences on the streamflow of the Blue Nile, which is connected to the rainfall season and therefore has direct effects on the people living in the sphere of influence of the Nile River.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Roth

Lemann

Zeleke

et al. 2018

Heliyon

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This type of VSA identification is valuable in watersheds such as the SF Shenandoah where hydrology and NPS pathways are characterized by variable precipitation intensity, high annual rainfall, varying topography, and shallow soils. The framework could be applied to many other areas of the humid, temperate US, and indeed other regions globally, [the Nile Basin for instance, Wagena et al (2016)] where topography and soil characteristics govern the formation of runoff source areas. In areas with deep topsoil with no restrictive layer, low conductivity soils and/or relatively flat topography, such as the Great Plains or Southeast U.S., the framework described here may be less applicable, however the GFS-MOS-watershed model coupling could be easily adapted to work with more region specific models, such as the standard SWAT model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupling the short-term global forecast system weather data with a variable source area hydrologic model

Sommerlot

Wagena

Fuka

et al. 2016

Environmental Modelling & Software

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Few current modeling tools are designed to predict short-term, high-risk runoff from hydrologically sensitive areas (HSAs) in watersheds. This study couples the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area model with the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis model and the Global Forecast System-Model Output Statistics model short term weather forecast, to develop a HSA prediction tool designed to assist producers, landowners, and planners in identifying high-risk areas generating storm runoff and pollution. Short-term predictions for stream flow and soil moisture level were estimated in the South Fork of the Shenandoah river watershed. Daily volumetric flow forecasts were found to be satisfactory four days into the future, and distributed model predictions accurately captured sub-field scale HSAs. The model has the potential to provide valuable forecasts that can be used to improve the effectiveness of agricultural management practices and reduce the risk of non-point source pollution.

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“…SWAT, jointly developed by USDA-ARS and Texas A&M AgriLife Research, is a watershedscale, physically based model incorporating weather, soil, land cover, and land management data to simulate surface and subsurface hydrology, various chemical and sediment fluxes, and crop development and yields (Arnold et al 1998). SWAT, one of the most commonly used and well supported modeling systems, has been widely used to predict the environmental impact of land use, land management practices, crop management, and climate change (Douglas-Mankin et al 2010;Abbaspour et al 2015;Rocha et al 2015;Wagena et al 2016;Ashraf-Vaghefi et al 2017;Sinnathamby et al 2017). SWAT requires meteorological input data including precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation as well as soils data, land use/management information, and elevation data.…”

Section: Swat-vsa Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meeting Water Quality Goals under Climate Change in Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

Bosch

Wagena

Ross

et al. 2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Climate change may increase precipitation, temperatures, and pollution loading and necessitate additional measures and costs to achieve water quality goals. We used two climate change models and the mean of the ensemble of seven climate models (Ensemble Mean), a yield prediction model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool‐Variable Source Area), and a farm economic model to estimate how climate change would affect yields and the costs of reducing nitrogen (N) loading in an agricultural subbasin of the Chesapeake Bay. We estimated costs of meeting water quality goals based on the reduction in farm net returns from limits on N loadings under historical and future climate scenarios. Estimated costs of meeting water quality goals increase under future climate for one of the two climate models and for the Ensemble Mean. Major reasons for increased costs are higher predicted N loading from crops and higher N loading reductions to be achieved under future climate. The farm meets N limits by eliminating wheat and reducing corn and soybean production as well as increased use of best management practices (BMPs) including Conservation Reserve Program. Researchers should analyze effects of climate change on the costs of meeting water quality goals using multiple climate change prediction models and considering possible crop substitutions as well as crop and livestock BMPs. Further research should consider how commodity market reactions to producers’ choices under climate change affect costs of meeting water quality goals.

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Climate change in the Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia: implications for water resources and sediment transport

Cited by 57 publications

References 26 publications

Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Effects of climate change on water resources in the upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Coupling the short-term global forecast system weather data with a variable source area hydrologic model

Meeting Water Quality Goals under Climate Change in Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

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