Objectives
To investigate the progression to castrationâresistant prostate cancer after primary androgen deprivation therapy, and to build a simple risk prediction model for primary androgen deprivation therapy patients based on the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment criteria.
Methods
A total of 602 patients who received primary androgen deprivation therapy were entered into the Korean Cancer Study of the Prostate database. The effect of prognostic factors was determined by multivariate analysis. For each patient, the weight of all factors was totaled to give Korean Cancer Studyâprostate scores; patients were divided into three risk groups according to their score. The probability of castrationâresistant prostate cancer, cancerâspecific survival and overall survival was estimated by KaplanâMeier analysis.
Results
On multivariate analysis for castrationâresistant prostate cancer, the significant variables were initial prostateâspecific antigen (>40Â ng/mL; 1Â point), biopsy Gleason score (â„9; 1Â point), clinical N1 (1Â point), and nonâregional lymph node (1Â point), bone (1Â point) and visceral (1Â point) metastasis. The Korean Cancer Studyâprostate scoring model was calculated on a scale of 0â6 (0: low, 1â2: intermediate, â„3: high risk). The risk groups stratified castrationâresistant prostate cancer (PÂ <Â 0.0001), cancerâspecific survival (PÂ <Â 0.0001) and overall survival (PÂ <Â 0.0001) by KaplanâMeier curve. The Korean Cancer Studyâprostate model predicted castrationâresistant prostate cancer with a câindex of 0.7242, cancerâspecific survival with a câindex of 0.7036 and overall survival with a câindex of 0.5890. The 5âyear estimated castrationâresistant prostate cancer/cancerâspecific death rates were 10.3%/6.3% in the lowârisk group, 48.4%/22.2% in the intermediateârisk group and 81.7%/53.1% in the highârisk group.
Conclusions
The Korean Cancer Studyâprostate risk classification, a modified Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment model, is a simple scoring model for predicting oncological outcomes after primary androgen deprivation therapy.