Development of probabilistic models for predicting roughness in asphalt pavement

Soncim, Sérgio Pacífico; Oliveira, Igor Castro Sá de; Santos, Felipe Brandão; Oliveira, Carlos Augusto de

doi:10.1080/14680629.2017.1304233

Cited by 17 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Bayesian and Markov probabilistic models are attracting the greatest interest and are the most employed ones [31]. Among them, the discrete time Markov chains is probably the most used probabilistic model in pavement deterioration modeling, with many examples in the literature [24,32,34,35,37,[39][40][41].…”

Section: Types Of Pavement Deterioration Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, it is necessary to develop a TPM for each combination of factors that affect the pavement performance, such as, material structure, traffic, climate, etc. Researchers usually developed a short series of TPMs for all the possible conditions, gathering them in families, for example, by pavement type [40], by road hierarchy [14,24], by pavement structure [40,41,45], or by climate [41,50].…”

Section: Types Of Pavement Deterioration Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

IRI Performance Models for Flexible Pavements in Two-Lane Roads until First Maintenance and/or Rehabilitation Work

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Pavement performance models play a vital role in any pavement management system. The Regional Government of Biscay (RGB) (Spain) manages a 1200 km road network and conducts pavement data collections, including the International Roughness Index (IRI) values. The aim of the paper is to develop an IRI performance model for two-lane roads with flexible pavement until the first maintenance and/or rehabilitation activity is performed. Due to the huge amount of available information, a deterministic model was selected. A literature review of deterministic models showed that, apart from age and traffic volumes, the pavement structure is a key factor. Therefore, it was decided to analyze the only road stretches whose entire pavement section was known (surface layer + base + subbase). Various variables related to age, traffic volumes and employed materials were introduced as possible factors. The multiple linear regression model with the highest coefficient of determination and all the variables significant included the real pavement age, the cumulated heavy traffic and the total thickness of bituminous layers. As the material employed in the surface layer could affect roughness progression, a qualitative variable was introduced to consider various surface materials. The model improved its accuracy, indicating that the surface layer material is also an influencing factor on IRI evolution.

show abstract

Section: Types Of Pavement Deterioration Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Types Of Pavement Deterioration Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

IRI Performance Models for Flexible Pavements in Two-Lane Roads until First Maintenance and/or Rehabilitation Work

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Probabilistic models are preferable to deterministic ones because the distribution range of pavement conditions that are produced by probabilistic models works on improving decision-making for maintaining the road network [9]. Moreover, probabilistic models are more realistic than the deterministic approach because they can capture uncertainty through the prediction process for pavement performance [10].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated Safety-Pavement Maintenance Management System (SPMS) for Local Authorities in Egypt

Gaber

Diab

Elbeltagi

et al. 2023

JES. Journal of Engineering Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Road maintenance management is a fundamental strategy for achieving the infrastructure sustainability. In Egypt, maintenance decision depends only on the pavement condition, and traffic safety is not considered. This study aims to develop an integrated safety-pavement management system that enables managing roads network according to the available funds and assures the safety concept throughout the service life of roads. It develops a probabilistic performance model and an optimization decision tool based on roads condition, safety levels, and maintenance costs to provide a proper maintenance decision. The system was validated for the road network in southern Egypt. Results show that an inadequate maintenance budget causes a decrease in safety levels and pavement conditions in some sections due to late maintenance decisions. However, the results indicate the applicability for determining the economic maintenance plan which keeps safety at the targeted level and enhances the pavement performance through the network by saving 27 million Egyptian pounds through the analysis period.

show abstract

“…Furthermore, in developing countries, inflation plays a crucial role in fluctuating machinery prices, workforce, materials, and equipment, resulting in the deviation of the project's design and closing costs (Musarat et al, 2020). The cost of road construction is difficult to predict (Soncim et al, 2018), and other costs (Alqadhi et al, 2018) are continually rapidly increasing, leading economic activity to become more difficult to predict. Consequently, it makes it challenging for construction companies to bid in developing countries.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of pavement degradation through statistical analysis model A case study of the Department of Transportation (DOT) of Iowa, USA

Rezvani¹,

Gomes²

2021

Proc. Of the 11th IMA International Conference on Modelling in Industrial Maintenance and Reliability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Transportation network, especially highways, is considered a national or international asset, and by proper maintenance system, public and private organizations can prioritize the budgeting of repair and reconstruction. The problem is to have a reliable and practical model creating a solid understanding of the pavement degradation condition by inexpensive measurable parameters for municipalities. This study focuses on the road pavement condition, particularly the statistical evaluation of the processes of degradation involved in various road sections. Quantitative statistical analysis of a sample taken from the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) in the United States provides a better understanding of the needs in pavement maintenance processes. In addition, it can identify the critical factors of pavement maintenance. Through a case study, it is shown that organizations can develop a solid based statistical decision-making model using basic and low-priced parameters. The model has two approaches, with and without pavement type (used by creating several dummy variables to include each pavement type as independent variables). This study will positively enhance the pavement degradation prediction through a statistical analysis model and a case study of the Department of Transportation (DOT) of Iowa, USA. These details include explanatory models, bivariate correlation, principal component analysis, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering, creating dummy variables, and developing multivariate regression models.

show abstract

Development of probabilistic models for predicting roughness in asphalt pavement

Cited by 17 publications

References 8 publications

IRI Performance Models for Flexible Pavements in Two-Lane Roads until First Maintenance and/or Rehabilitation Work

IRI Performance Models for Flexible Pavements in Two-Lane Roads until First Maintenance and/or Rehabilitation Work

Integrated Safety-Pavement Maintenance Management System (SPMS) for Local Authorities in Egypt

Assessment of pavement degradation through statistical analysis model A case study of the Department of Transportation (DOT) of Iowa, USA

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About