Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe?

Sommerfeld, Andreas; Rammer, Werner; Heurich, Marco; Hilmers, Torben; Müller, Jörg; Seidl, Rupert

doi:10.1111/1365-2745.13502

Cited by 70 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Our model incorporated a constellation of factors that cannot be readily explored with experiments, allowing for multiple drivers to interact synergistically under a wide range of future scenarios (Laurance et al 2011, Turner et al 2020. Scenario studies already support management strategies around the world (Runyon et al 2020, Sommerfeld et al 2020, and our study allows managers to consider a range of plausible futures. Forest attributes will not change at the same rates, and we identified indicators of forest structure that may be harbingers of subsequent forest transformation.…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire

Turner

Braziunas

Hansen

et al. 2021

Ecological Monographs

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As temperatures continue rising, the direction, magnitude, and tempo of change in disturbance-prone forests remain unresolved. Even forests long resilient to stand-replacing fire face uncertain futures, and efforts to project changes in forest structure and composition are sorely needed to anticipate future forest trajectories. We simulated fire (incorporating fuels feedbacks) and forest dynamics on five landscapes spanning the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) to ask: (1) How and where are forest landscapes likely to change with 21 st -century warming and fire activity? (2) Are future forest changes gradual or abrupt, and do forest attributes change synchronously or sequentially? (3) Can forest declines be averted by mid-21 stcentury stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations? We used the spatially explicit individual-based forest model iLand to track multiple attributes (forest extent, stand age, tree density, basal area, aboveground carbon stocks, dominant forest types, species occupancy) through 2100 for six climate scenarios. Hot-dry climate scenarios led to more fire, but stand-replacing fire peaked in mid-century and then declined even as annual area burned continued to rise. Where forest cover persisted, previously dense forests were converted to sparse young woodlands. Increased aridity and fire drove a ratchet of successive abrupt declines (i.e., multiple annual landscape-level changes ≥ 20%) in tree density, basal area and extent of older (>150 yr) forests, whereas declines in carbon stocks and mean stand age were always gradual.Forest changes were asynchronous across landscapes, but declines in stand structure always preceded reductions in forest extent and carbon stocks. Forest decline was most likely in less topographically complex landscapes dominated by fire-sensitive tree species (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa, Pinus contorta var. latifolia) and where fire resisters (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) were not already prevalent. If current GHG emissions continue unabated (RCP 8.5) and aridity increases, a suite of forest changes would transform the GYE, with cascading effects on biodiversity and myriad ecosystem services. However, stabilizing GHG concentrations by mid-century (RCP 4.5) would slow the ratchet, moderating fire activity and dampening the magnitude and rate of forest change. Monitoring changes in forest structure may serve as an operational early warning indicator of impending forest decline.

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Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire

Turner

Braziunas

Hansen

et al. 2021

Ecological Monographs

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“…Forests are typically well adapted to a particular historical disturbance regime; however, modifications of disturbance regimes under climate change could alter forests’ response and reduce their resilience capacity especially under the influence of concurrent disturbances (Buma, 2015; Seidl & Rammer, 2017). For instance, the interaction between extreme weather conditions (e.g., drought) and biotic disturbances has led to unprecedented levels of bark beetle outbreaks in recent years, both in North American (Bentz et al, 2010) and European countries (Sommerfeld et al, 2020). Therefore, under the ongoing global climatic trends and the expected increase of beetle outbreaks (Biedermann et al, 2019), it is crucial to better understand the mechanisms that determine when, where, and how changing disturbance regimes may surpass forest resilience and cause irreversible changes in forest persistence (Thom et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic and stand drivers of forest resistance to recent bark beetle disturbance in European coniferous forests

Jaime

Batllori

Ferretti

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Bark beetle infestation is a major driver of tree mortality that may be critical for forest persistence under climate change and the forecasted increase of extreme heat and drought episodes. Under this context, the environmental position of host tree populations within the species’ climatic niche (central vs. marginal populations) is expected to be a determinant in the dynamics of insect–host systems. Here, we analyzed the recent patterns of bark beetle disturbance and forest resistance across European coniferous forests during the 2010–2018 period. We obtained bark beetle attack and tree mortality data from successive continental‐scale forest condition surveys on 130 plots including five host trees and five bark beetle species, and characterized the climatic niche of each species. Then, we analyzed the overall forest resistance and species‐specific responses, in terms of bark beetle attack and induced tree mortality, in relation to the distance to the niche optimum of both host tree and beetle species, previous drought events, and plot characteristics. Regional patterns of recent disturbance revealed that forests in central, north, and east of Europe could be at risk under the attack of multivoltine bark beetle species. We found that overall forest resistance to beetle attack was determined by several driving factors, which varied among species responses. Particularly, the environmental position of the affected forest within the host and beetle species’ climatic niche and plot characteristics mediated the influence of drought on the resistance to beetle attack. In turn, forest resistance to induced tree mortality was determined exclusively by the maximum intensity and duration of drought events. Our findings highlight the importance of disturbance interactions and suggest that the joint influence of drought events and bark beetle disturbance will threaten the persistence of European coniferous forests, even in those tree populations close to their species' climatic optimum.

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“…However, favorable conditions such as drought can lead to an outbreak (epidemic phase). Beetles start attacking the healthy standing trees due to weakened defenses caused by warmer temperatures (Bouhot et al, 1988 ; Marini et al, 2017 ; Pettit et al, 2020 ) and larger windthrows (Kausrud et al, 2012 ; Biedermann et al, 2019 ; Sommerfeld et al, 2020 ). Furthermore, conifers have self-defense mechanisms to ward off bark beetle infestations with secondary metabolites such as terpenes (Ferrenberg et al, 2014 ; Denham et al, 2019 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reference Gene Selection for Normalizing Gene Expression in Ips Sexdentatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) Under Different Experimental Conditions

et al. 2021

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Ips sexdentatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) is one of the most destructive and economically important forest pests. A better understanding of molecular mechanisms underlying its adaptation to toxic host compounds may unleash the potential for future management of this pest. Gene expression studies could be considered as one of the key experimental approaches for such purposes. A suitable reference gene selection is fundamental for quantitative gene expression analysis and functional genomics studies in I. sexdentatus. Twelve commonly used reference genes in Coleopterans were screened under different experimental conditions to obtain accurate and reliable normalization of gene expression data. The majority of the 12 reference genes showed a relatively stable expression pattern among developmental stages, tissue-specific, and sex-specific stages; however, some variabilities were observed during varied temperature incubation. Under developmental conditions, the Tubulin beta-1 chain (β-Tubulin) was the most stable reference gene, followed by translation elongation factor (eEF2) and ribosomal protein S3 (RPS3). In sex-specific conditions, RPS3, β-Tubulin, and eEF2 were the most stable reference genes. In contrast, different sets of genes were shown higher stability in terms of expression under tissue-specific conditions, i.e., RPS3 and eEF2 in head tissue, V-ATPase-A and eEF2 in the fat body, V-ATPase-A and eEF2 in the gut. Under varied temperatures, β-Tubulin and V-ATPase-A were most stable, whereas ubiquitin (UbiQ) and V-ATPase-A displayed the highest expression stability after Juvenile Hormone III treatment. The findings were validated further using real-time quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR)-based target gene expression analysis. Nevertheless, the present study delivers a catalog of reference genes under varied experimental conditions for the coleopteran forest pest I. sexdentatus and paves the way for future gene expression and functional genomic studies on this species.

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Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe?

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 70 publications

References 78 publications

The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire

The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire

Climatic and stand drivers of forest resistance to recent bark beetle disturbance in European coniferous forests

Reference Gene Selection for Normalizing Gene Expression in Ips Sexdentatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) Under Different Experimental Conditions

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