Does Selection Bias Matter in Football Players’ Valuation? A Crowdsourced Valuation Approach on Players’ Athletic Characteristics

Herberger, Tim Alexander; Wedlich, Florian

doi:10.1080/24704067.2017.1350593

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The website provides independent estimates of players’ market value and is regularly updated (last update in March 2020) by more than 190,000 professional and non-professional individuals with the approval of Transfermarkt.de experts [ 17 , 20 ]. Transfermarkt.de has been used in several previous studies [ 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 ], and has been shown to be a valid and useful database for game performance indicators and market values [ 17 ]. Data exported for this study included birthdate, market value, nationality, club and playing position.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Relative Age Effects Associate with Football Players’ Market Values: Indicators of Losing Talent and Wasting Money

Romann

Javet

Cobley

et al. 2021

Sports

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Background: In football, annual age-group categorization leads to relative age effects (RAEs) in talent development. Given such trends, relative age may also associate with market values. This study analyzed the relationship between RAEs and market values of youth players. Methods: Age category, birthdate, and market values of 11,738 youth male football players were obtained from the “transfermarkt.de” database, which delivers a good proxy for real market values. RAEs were calculated using odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: Significant RAEs were found across all age-groups (p < 0.05). The largest RAEs occurred in U18 players (Q1 [relatively older] v Q4 [relatively younger] OR = 3.1) ORs decreased with age category, i.e., U19 (2.7), U20 (2.6), U21 (2.4), U22 (2.2), and U23 (1.8). At U19s, Q1 players were associated with significantly higher market values than Q4 players. However, by U21, U22, and U23 RAEs were inversed, with correspondingly higher market values for Q4 players apparent. While large typical RAEs for all playing positions was observed in younger age categories (U18–U20), inversed RAEs were only evident for defenders (small-medium) and for strikers (medium-large) in U21–U23 (not goalkeepers and midfielders). Conclusions: Assuming an equal distribution of football talent exists across annual cohorts, results indicate the selection and market value of young professional players is dynamic. Findings suggest a potential biased selection, and undervaluing of Q4 players in younger age groups, as their representation and market value increased over time. By contrast, the changing representations and market values of Q1 players suggest initial overvaluing in performance and monetary terms. Therefore, this inefficient talent selection and the accompanying waste of money should be improved.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Relative Age Effects Associate with Football Players’ Market Values: Indicators of Losing Talent and Wasting Money

Romann

Javet

Cobley

et al. 2021

Sports

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“…The generalisation of this approach can also be observed in the literature when using the terms 'market value'. Definitions of market value can be found that refer to the owning club's willingness to accept, i.e., the compensation required to-at least-compensate for the loss of the economic contribution expected by the owning club: 'Market values […] give indications on the current expected receivable amount of a transfer in advance when negotiations are made' (Herberger & Wedlich, 2017), 'The market value of a player reflects the monetary value the employing club attributes to the player's performance' (Kirschstein & Liebscher, 2018), or '[the Marca market value is the] accurate value of the individual, both relying on the quality of the player and depending on the economic contribution the player is supposed to draw for the team' (Garcia-del-Barrio & Pujol, 2007). Hence, the aforementioned definitions clearly support the idea that the transfer fee should reflect the player's economic contribution to the owning club.…”

Section: Supply Side: the Selling Clubmentioning

confidence: 99%

Football players in light of economic value theory: Critical review and conceptualisation

Franceschi,

Brocard,

Follert

et al. 2023

Manage Decis Econ

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Football players represent the key assets of football clubs, and their value determination is therefore at the heart of clubs' investment and decision‐making processes. Unsurprisingly, the topic of player value has attracted the attention of scholars from various disciplines for decades. Despite this, there is a corpus of academic literature, which, although it works empirically with the relevant data, does not discuss any of the concepts related to the terms ‘value’ and ‘price’ in depth. Conversely, there are studies that do so but do not present a unified and coherent concept of the terminologies used. Consequently, no comprehensive definition of the value of football players seems to emerge from the literature. The central aim of this paper is to fill this gap. Based on a critical review of existing literature, we propose a unified framework embedded in subjective value theory, particularly as formulated by the Austrian school of economics. As a result, this work presents a theoretical basis for defining the use value and market value of football players, the comparison of which can improve clubs' decision‐making. In this context, we also discuss the conceptual validity of Transfermarkt values, a widely used crowd‐sourced valuation tool. Overall, we seek to strengthen the link between economic theory and practical management problems in the football industry. Furthermore, our results are not solely limited to football but are also applicable to athlete valuation in other sports.

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“…Nowadays, crowdsourcing has emerged as a new tool that allows novel and efficient managerial decisions, an example is the popular approach to estimate football players' values through the website transfermarkt.de. Using these figures, different authors have assessed the ability of observable comparative parameters to determine the value of football players through statistical and econometric models based on sports performance (Herm et al, 2014;Majewski, 2016;Herberger and Wedlich, 2017;M€ uller et al, 2017;Serna et al, 2019;Kirschstein and Liebscher, 2019).…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using these figures, different authors have assessed the ability of observable comparative parameters to determine the value of football players through statistical and econometric models based on sports performance (Herm et al. , 2014; Majewski, 2016; Herberger and Wedlich, 2017; Müller et al. , 2017; Serna et al.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

The wisdom of crowd, real option and game theory decisions: can they be used by clubs to improve their investment in football players?

Martín

Manuel

Sánchez

et al. 2022

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PurposeThe aim of this work is to explain the final negotiated prices for some of the most famous transfers of football players over the last twelve years (2007–2018).Design/methodology/approachThe article analyses different values for forwards taken from the sports website Transfermarkt, developing a statistical model based on personal, performance, risk, environmental and popularity variables. From those values, the article finds an explanation for the final prices paid for 20 superstar players based on a combination of real option valuations, incorporating the players' life cycles and game theory.FindingsThe authors find that in a large percentage (70%) of the analysed cases, the price paid was higher than the intrinsic market value resulting from Transfermarkt, implying the existence of monopolistic rents, paid as “growth options” on prices from different negotiating conditions. On occasions, the final prices also exceed the value of the growth option, calculated under neutral bargaining conditions, highlighting the lack of economic viability of important transfers, leading to financial difficulties for the clubs involved.Originality/valueThe algorithm provides more flexibility and realism than previous proposals, based on the life cycle of football players, introducing the uncertainty and volatility of projections through Monte Carlo simulation, the capacity of clubs to bargain a price at any point of the contract and finally, the buyer's ability to transfer the player if his subsequent performance is not as expected.

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Does Selection Bias Matter in Football Players’ Valuation? A Crowdsourced Valuation Approach on Players’ Athletic Characteristics

Cited by 9 publications

References 25 publications

How Relative Age Effects Associate with Football Players’ Market Values: Indicators of Losing Talent and Wasting Money

How Relative Age Effects Associate with Football Players’ Market Values: Indicators of Losing Talent and Wasting Money

Football players in light of economic value theory: Critical review and conceptualisation

The wisdom of crowd, real option and game theory decisions: can they be used by clubs to improve their investment in football players?

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