How Relative Age Effects Associate with Football Players’ Market Values: Indicators of Losing Talent and Wasting Money

Abstract

Background: In football, annual age-group categorization leads to relative age effects (RAEs) in talent development. Given such trends, relative age may also associate with market values. This study analyzed the relationship between RAEs and market values of youth players. Methods: Age category, birthdate, and market values of 11,738 youth male football players were obtained from the “transfermarkt.de” database, which delivers a good proxy for real market values. RAEs were calculated using odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: Significant RAEs were found across all age-groups (p < 0.05). The largest RAEs occurred in U18 players (Q1 [relatively older] v Q4 [relatively younger] OR = 3.1) ORs decreased with age category, i.e., U19 (2.7), U20 (2.6), U21 (2.4), U22 (2.2), and U23 (1.8). At U19s, Q1 players were associated with significantly higher market values than Q4 players. However, by U21, U22, and U23 RAEs were inversed, with correspondingly higher market values for Q4 players apparent. While large typical RAEs for all playing positions was observed in younger age categories (U18–U20), inversed RAEs were only evident for defenders (small-medium) and for strikers (medium-large) in U21–U23 (not goalkeepers and midfielders). Conclusions: Assuming an equal distribution of football talent exists across annual cohorts, results indicate the selection and market value of young professional players is dynamic. Findings suggest a potential biased selection, and undervaluing of Q4 players in younger age groups, as their representation and market value increased over time. By contrast, the changing representations and market values of Q1 players suggest initial overvaluing in performance and monetary terms. Therefore, this inefficient talent selection and the accompanying waste of money should be improved.

Market value of Brazilian soccer players that played 2020 series A and B of the Brazilian championship: an analysis based on quarters of birth and playing position

“…Additionally, our results partially corroborate the study by Figueiredo 18 , as the authors observed an overrepresentation of Brazilian elite players born in the first quarter of the year, while players born in the last quarter of the year were underrepresented, regardless of age category and competition level. Even though RAE tends to reduce as age categories increase 26 , evidence suggests that this phenomenon is so pervasive in youth soccer 26,32 that it lasts up to the senior category.…”

“…Players' full names, date of birth, competitive level, and playing positions were obtained from rosters available at the Brazilian Soccer Confederation (CBF) Official Website (www.cbf.com.br) and clubs' websites. Data regarding the players' market value were obtained from the "Transfermkt" database (www.transfermarkt.com.br), similarly to previous studies 25,26 . Data collection was performed during March 2021, when the season was already over for Series A and B, and players' market value is supposedly stabilized.…”

“…This may explain why relatively younger soccer players are more likely to earn higher salaries 22 and win more awards when they reach the senior level in many leagues around the world 21 , even though they were part of a system that puts them at a disadvantage. This notion has raised the interest of clubs and researchers to better understand the relationship between RAE and the market value of soccer players [23][24][25][26] .…”

Econometric Approach to Assessing the Transfer Fees and Values of Professional Football Players

“…When dealing with the topic of transfer fees, both the media and academics have most often focused on the concept of players' market value (Coates and Parshakov 2021;He et al 2015;Herm et al 2014;Kirschstein and Liebscher 2019;Majewski 2016;Müller et al 2017;Prockl and Frick 2018;Romann et al 2021;Serna Rodríguez et al 2018;Singh and Lamba 2019;Velema 2018). However, we consider that the concept of a players' transfer value is more appropriate, as it clearly refers to transfer fees as described above, while the concept of market value is more ambiguous.…”

The Relationship of Eye-foot Coordination with Football Skill: A Correlation Study in Young Football Player

“…Exercises that can improve eye-foot coordination include variations in footsteps combined with the direction of the player's eyes, trained to align vision with foot movements. The football game which is dominated by the use of the feet, makes the eye-foot coordination aspect play a vital role during the game [3].…”