Earthquake early warning scenarios at critical facilities in the Eastern Caribbean

Zuccolo, Elisa; Gibbs, Tony; Lai, Carlo G.; Latchman, Joan L.; Salazar, Walter; Sarno, Luigi Di; Farrell, Anthony P.; Lynch, Lloyd; Workman, Addison

doi:10.1007/s10518-016-9878-7

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 43 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The validity of this assumption does not significantly affect the outcomes of the study, however; removing from the analyses sources for which δ m ≥ 12 and the nearest station is less than 80 km does not change the conclusions of the work. δ t captures data telemetry delays, which are idealistically assumed to comprise 1 s for data transmission and 1 s for issuing the warning message [66][67][68] .…”

Section: Lead-time Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Here we assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public) to an earthquake’s nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW lead times available across various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and seismic network density. We then determine the potential usefulness of these times for EEW purposes by defining their spatial relationship with population exposure, seismic hazard, and an alert accuracy proxy, using well-established earthquake-engineering tools for measuring the impacts of earthquakes. Our mapped feasibility results show that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for some parts of Europe.

show abstract

Section: Lead-time Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The synthetic seismograms for Southern Italy and the Pyrenees are computed from physics-based numerical simulations, using the broadband ground-motion simulation code described in Crempien and Archuleta (2015), which can simulate the high-frequency content of seismic waves and has already proved to be suitable for EEW feasibility studies (Zuccolo et al, 2016). We specifically generate seismograms for one scenario earthquake on each active fault in both regions.…”

Section: Seismic Waveformsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the Performance of Regional Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms in Europe

2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Several earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms have been developed worldwide for rapidly estimating real-time information (i.e., location, magnitude, ground shaking, and/or potential consequences) about ongoing seismic events. This study quantitatively compares the operational performance of two popular regional EEW algorithms for European conditions of seismicity and network configurations. We specifically test PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo) and the implementation of the Virtual Seismologist magnitude component within SeisComP, VS(SC), which we use jointly with the SeisComP scanloc module for locating events. We first evaluate the timeliness and accuracy of the location and magnitude estimates computed by both algorithms in real-time simulation mode, accounting for the continuous streaming of data and effective processing times. Then, we focus on the alert-triggering (decision-making) phase of EEW and investigate both algorithms’ ability to yield accurate ground-motion predictions at the various temporal instances that provide a range of warning times at target sites. We find that the two algorithms show comparable performances in terms of source parameters. In addition, PRESTo produces better rapid estimates of ground motion (i.e., those that facilitate the largest lead times); therefore, we conclude that PRESTo may have a greater risk-mitigation potential than VS(SC) in general. However, VS(SC) is the optimal choice of EEW algorithm if shorter warning times are permissible. The findings of this study can be used to inform current and future implementations of EEW systems in Europe.

show abstract

“…Some regions (e.g. Italy, Chinese mainland, Switzerland, Chile, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador) are currently testing EEW systems within their seismic monitoring networks (Clinton et al, 2016;Leyton et al, 2018;Massin et al, 2019; and see next section for details of Chinese mainland), while others are only at the stage of discussing the need and feasibility of developing EEW systems (Bird et al, 2008;Stankiewicz et al, 2015;Romeu Petit et al, 2016;Sokos et al, 2016;Zuccolo et al, 2016;Ogweno et al, 2019). Recently, crowdsourcing (Hammon and Hippner, 2012) has been applied as a promising new technique to EEW, allowing the general public to record seismic data/records with micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) in smart devices and to receive earthquake alerts in real-time on a global or regional scale (Minson et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time Characterization of Finite Rupture and Its Implication for Earthquake Early Warning: Application of FinDer to Existing and Planned Stations in Southwest China

Böse

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Earthquake early warning (EEW) not only improves resilience against the risk of earthquake disasters, but also provides new insights into seismological processes. The Finite-Fault Rupture Detector (FinDer) is an efficient algorithm to retrieve line-source models of an ongoing earthquake from seismic real-time data. In this study, we test the performance of FinDer in the Sichuan-Yunnan region (98.5oE–106.0oE, 22.0oN–34.0oN) of China for two datasets: the first consists of seismic broadband and strong-motion records of 58 earthquakes with 5.0 ≤ MS ≤ 8.0; the second comprises additional waveform simulations at sites where new stations will be deployed in the near future. We utilize observed waveforms to optimize the simulation approach to generate ground-motion time series. For both datasets the resulting FinDer line-source models agree well with the reported epicenters, focal mechanisms, and finite-source models, while they are computed faster compared to what traditional methods can achieve. Based on these outputs, we determine a theoretical relation that can predict for which magnitudes and station densities FinDer is expected to trigger, assuming that at least three neighboring stations must have recorded accelerations of 4.6 cm/s2 or more. We find that FinDer likely triggers and sends out a report, if the average distance between the epicenter and the three closest stations, Depi, is equal or smaller than log10 (Ma + b) + c, where a = 1.91, b = 5.93, and c = 2.34 for M = MW ≥ 4.8, and c = 2.49 for M = MS ≥ 5.0, respectively. If the data used in this study had been available in real-time, 40–70% of sites experiencing seismic intensities of V-VIII (on both Chinese and MMI scales) and 20% experiencing IX-X could have been issued a warning 5–10 s before the S-wave arrives. Our offline tests provide a useful reference for the planned installation of FinDer in the nationwide EEW system of Chinese mainland.

show abstract

Earthquake early warning scenarios at critical facilities in the Eastern Caribbean

Cited by 8 publications

References 43 publications

Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

Comparing the Performance of Regional Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms in Europe

Real-Time Characterization of Finite Rupture and Its Implication for Earthquake Early Warning: Application of FinDer to Existing and Planned Stations in Southwest China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About