Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

Cremen, Gemma; Galasso, Carmine; Zuccolo, Elisa

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27807-2

Cited by 37 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Earthquake early warning system makes use of the message carried by the P‐wave arrival to issue warnings about the later coming, and potentially destructive, S and surface waves, to field emergency countermeasures, which are scaled to the different objects to be protected (Allen et al, 2009; Allen & Melgar, 2019; Cremen et al, 2022; Kanamori, 2005; Satriano et al, 2011). If the detection network does not cover the seismic source, it has been shown that SHA may help to improve their performance (Cremen & Galasso, 2020; Zhang, Wu et al, 2021).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) empowered by Time‐Dependent Neo‐Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (TD‐NDSHA)

Zhang

Romanelli

et al. 2023

Terra Nova

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In the network‐based on‐site earthquake early warning system (EEWS), the ‘blind zone’, namely the zone where the issued warning arrives later than the destructive S and surface waves, is one of the challenges affecting its effectiveness. The ‘blind zone’ is determined by the interstation distance, or equivalently the density of seismic stations, of the network. In this paper, we suggest a practical approach according to which, when in a region a temporary increase of seismic hazard is declared, additional stations are deployed in such a way that the blind zone is temporarily reduced. In the procedure, the time‐dependent neo‐deterministic seismic hazard assessment (TD‐NDSHA) plays a vital role in the identification of the regions potentially exposed to high macroseismic intensities. As a showcase example, we consider the scenario of year 2014 at the Sichuan‐Yunnan border of southwest China. The TD‐NDSHA is based on the standard NDSHA procedure at regional scale (bedrock conditions), with the ‘controlling earthquakes’ defined on the basis of the Annual Consultation. We show that the ‘blind zone’ can be reduced in the identified areas of interest (e.g., MMI ≥ VI), by deploying a limited number of additional seismic stations. In the case where false alarms can be tolerated, significant reduction of the ‘blind zone’ can be implemented by moving from a network‐based EEWS to a single‐sensor‐based EEWS and skipping the process of location and magnitude‐determination/prediction procedures.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) empowered by Time‐Dependent Neo‐Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (TD‐NDSHA)

Zhang

Romanelli

et al. 2023

Terra Nova

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“…When these seismic waves propagate to the ground, they can induce strong shaking, which causes severe loss of life and damage to the economy. Hence, seismologists monitor earthquakes by recording ground vibrations using seismometers, e.g., to give warnings of seismic activity and minimize the loss (Allen & Stogaitis, 2022;Cremen et al, 2022;Massin et al, 2021;Cremen & Galasso, 2020).…”

Section: Waves and Virtual Realitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Elastic immersive wave experimentation

Robertsson

Manen

2022

Geophysical Journal International

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We describe an elastic wave propagation laboratory that enables a solid object to be artificially immersed within an extended (numerical) environment such that a physical wave propagation experiment carried out in the solid drives the propagation in the extended (numerical) environment and vice-versa. The underlying method of elastic immersive wave experimentation for such a laboratory involves deploying arrays of active multi-component sources at the traction-free surface of the solid (e.g., a cube of granitic rock). These sources are used to accomplish two tasks: (1) cancel outgoing waves, and (2) emit ingoing waves representing the first-order interactions between the physical and extended domains, computed using, e.g., a finite-difference (FD) method. Higher-order interactions can be built by alternately carrying out the processes for canceling the outgoing waves and the FD simulations for generating the ingoing waves. We validate the proposed iterative scheme for realizing elastic immersive wave experimentation using two-dimensional (2D) synthetic wave experiments.

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“…However, as the EEWS performance is bound to depend on a multitude of uncertain factors, such efforts have, for the most part, understandably targeted individual system characteristics that are more testable, or adopted a narrower scope in their assessment. This usually translates to using proxy targets such as satisfactory alert accuracy (Pinsky, 2017), size of no-alert zones (Kuyuk and Allen, 2013; Picozzi et al, 2015), length of warning times (Böse et al, 2022; Meier et al, 2020), or composite indices combining the above and/or other proxies (Cremen et al, 2022). Many of these studies have, in fact, been instrumental in enhancing particular EEWSs or improving the EEW science in general; yet, they do not provide directly actionable information to decision makers, that is, an assessment of whether EEW can be an effective driver of risk reduction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework to quantify the effectiveness of earthquake early warning in mitigating seismic risk

et al. 2023

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Earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) aim to rapidly detect earthquakes and provide timely alerts, so that users can take protective actions prior to the onset of strong ground shaking. The promise and limitations of EEWSs have both been widely debated. On one hand, an operational EEWS could mitigate earthquake damage by triggering potentially cost- and life-saving actions. These range from automated system responses such as slowing down trains to the actions of individuals that receive the alerts and take protective measures. On the other hand, the effectiveness of an EEWS is conditional on the ability to issue warnings that are sufficiently accurate and timely to facilitate an appropriate action. The refinement of earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms and the installation of denser and faster seismic networks have improved performance; however, the benefit in risk reduction that an EEWS could achieve remains unquantified. In this study, we leverage upon regional event-based probabilistic seismic risk assessment to devise a quantitative and fully customizable framework for evaluating the effectiveness of EEW in mitigating seismic risk. We demonstrate this framework using Switzerland as a testbed, for which we compute and contrast human loss exceedance curves with and without EEW.

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Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

Cited by 37 publications

References 64 publications

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) empowered by Time‐Dependent Neo‐Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (TD‐NDSHA)

Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) empowered by Time‐Dependent Neo‐Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (TD‐NDSHA)

Elastic immersive wave experimentation

A framework to quantify the effectiveness of earthquake early warning in mitigating seismic risk

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