Environmental Modelling of Climate Change Impact on Grapevines: Case Study from the Czech Republic

Abstract

Predicted climate change can significantly affect ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes. Possibilities of predicting climate change effects on growing conditions of crops are therefore sought for practical reasons. The aim of the present study is to contribute to the current discussions about the impact of climate change on agriculture. The case study from the Czech Republic presents methods and results of environmental modelling of the impact of predicted climatic changes on future conditions for growing grapevines. The model is based on the ecological relationship between climate and vegetation zonation of the landscape and thus belongs to the group of process biogeographic models applicable on a regional scale. The results of the presented model show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area. The results of the model relevant to the Czech Republic are in line with the previous assumptions of trends in future impacts of climate change on viticulture in Europe. However, the data resulting from the presented model, which relate to the time horizon beyond 2050, should be regarded as indicative and fraught with a high degree of uncertainty linked with the uncertainty of the input climatological prediction for this time period.

Changes to Land Area Used for Grain Maize Production in Central Europe due to Predicted Climate Change

“…us, vegetation zones changes can be used as a basis for applying the biogeographical modelling to predictions of climate change impacts on the growing conditions of agriculture crops on a regional scale [28,29]. In this study, we applied a process-based biogeographical model [30] based on the equilibrium responses of vegetation to climate change [31,32].…”

“…e present vegetation zoning therefore represents a suitable basic framework for the modelling of climate impacts on the production and growth conditions of vegetation in the Czech Republic. We have applied this modelling in the Czech Republic for grapevine [28] and European beech [31]. But these prior studies were based on former climatological scenarios SRES, which are not developing currently.…”

Assessing Diversity Levels in Selected Wine Regions of South Moravia (Czech Republic)

“…Nevertheless, in every region there are still lots of vineyard sites underused for growing grapevines and with suitable conditions (e.g., Valtice), which are potential localities for new vineyard plantation. From the case study of environmental modelling of climate change and its impact on grapevines, the total area with suitable conditions should increase by 10% in 2050 [28]. The extension of the vineyard sites depends on EU policy regulations, but such an increase of suitable area gives a potential to create new vineyard sites.…”

Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment—the case of the Czech Republic

“…We focus on the Czech Republic in central Europe, a region where future precipitation trends are uncertain (Kjellström et al 2011;Kovats et al 2014). Climate change in the Czech Republic is expected to lead to wetter winters and drier summers (Kyselý et al 2011;Stepanek et al 2016), more frequent extreme rainfall events (Kyselý and Beranová 2009;Kyselý et al 2011;Rulfová et al 2017), decreased spring and summer runoff (Hanel et al 2012), increased flood damages (Rojas et al 2013), increased pest pressures (Eitzinger et al 2012), increased risk of land degradation (Trnka et al 2016), changing crop suitability (Trnka et al 2009;Machar et al 2017) and crop yields (Trnka et al 2004;Eitzinger et al 2012), changing species suitability (e.g. Lučan et al 2013;Kolář et al 2017), and increased urban heatwave impacts (e.g.…”