European oak declines and global warming: a theoretical assessment with special reference to the activity of Phytophthora cinnamomi

Abstract

Causes of current severe declines of the deciduous oaks Quercus robur and Q. petraea in northern and central Europe and of the evergreen Q. ilex, Q. suber and other Quercus spp. in the Mediterranean area are reviewed. Factors implicated include drought, pollution, winter cold, flooding, and stress‐related attacks by insects and fungi. Additional factors in Mediterranean oak declines include changing land‐use patterns and root disease caused by the aggressive, exotic oomycete root pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi. Under conditions of global warming the survival and degree of root disease caused by this fungus seems likely to be enhanced, while the host range of the organism might also be increased. Application of the CLIMEX climate‐matching program suggests that with a mean increase in temperatures of 1.5–3°C the fungus might considerably increase its disease activity in its existing locations, and to some extent spread northwards and eastwards. However, it seems unlikely to become significantly active in areas of Europe with colder winters such as parts of Scandinavia, Russia and the central Danube. The predictive value of research on major environmental problems such as oak declines could be enhanced by more highly coordinated European forestry research programmes.

Análise de risco das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a sigatoka-negra da bananeira no Brasil

“…Geralmente, os autores simplificam a metodologia assumindo um valor constante de temperatura ou precipitação a ser somado ou subtraído nos valores médios atuais, independentemente da época do ano e da região geográfica estudada, como por exemplo, Boag et al (1991) para o estudo do efeito das mudanças climáticas em nematóides fitopatogênicos, Xiphinema e Longidorus, na Europa; Luo et al (1995) para simulações com brusone do arroz em países asiáticos; Brasier & Scott (1994) e Brasier (1996 para a ocorrência de Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands em carvalho (Quercus spp.) no continente europeu; fitopatógenos na Finlândia por Carter et al (1996) e no Reino Unido, por Clifford et al (1996).…”

Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming

“…Changing weather (e.g. temperature, rainfall) can induce severe plant disease epidemics (Coakley et al 1999;Chakraborty 2005), which threaten food security if they affect staple crops (Luo et al 1995;Chakraborty et al 2000;Anderson et al 2004) and can damage landscapes if they affect amenity species (Brasier & Scott 1994;Bergot et al 2004). Severity of human, animal and plant disease epidemics is greatly affected by climatic factors, especially temperature and rainfall (Wint et al 2002;Fitt et al 2006a; Thomson et al 2006;Bosch et al 2007).…”

“…Modelling approaches have included those matching existing climates in one region with climates predicted for another (Brasier & Scott 1994) or combinations of simulation models for crop growth and disease development (Luo et al 1995). Before 1999, no work had used predicted climate variables generated by new more sophisticated general circulation models (GCMs); most studies had relied on predictions of fixed changes in temperature and rainfall (Coakley et al 1999).…”

Winter survival of Phytophthora alni subsp. alni in aerial tissues of black alder

“…Our results are also in accordance with Marçais et al (1996), who confirmed the effect of higher winter temperatures and orientation in the most heated side of the stem girth in P. cinnamomi survival in stems of red oak. In accordance with the modelling of P. cinnamomi behaviour as a result of climate change (Brasier, Scott 1994;Marçais et al 1996;Brasier 1996;Bergot et al 2004), we expect that warming will significantly enhance the impact of PAA in its locations.…”

“…Recent models predict an increase in the distribution and local impact of a range of forest pathogens, including P. cinnamomi (Desprez-Loustau et al 2007). Winter survival is a dominant cue for the development of ink disease caused by this pathogen in oak in Europe (Brasier, Scott 1994;Marçais et al 1996;Bergot et al 2004). Therefore, we predict that winter temperatures will play a key role in the survival of other invasive Phytophthora spp.…”