ForFITS: a New Help in Transport Decision Making for a Sustainable Future

Andrejszki, Tamás; Gangonells, Miquel; Molnár, Éva D.; Török, Ádám

doi:10.3311/pptr.7442

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 17 publications

(2 reference statements)

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“…To develop the simulations presented in this paper, we chose the abovementioned ForFITS, 4 a system dynamic model developed for UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) and the Regional Commissions of the United Nations (UNECE, 2011a). UNECE's motivation to develop a new tool was to use a simulation model that contemplates most of the features of available tools to evaluate strategies for sustainable and integrated development of various transport modes, applicable to the most diverse local, regional and national contexts (Andrejszk et al, 2014b). Furthermore, the development of ForFITS should produce internationally comparable results, a criterion which, according to UNECE (2011a) none of the existing tools met.…”

Section: Scenario Building With a Dynamic Simulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity

Menezes¹,

Maia

Carvalho

2017

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper evaluates low-carbon urban development strategies for the transport sector in São Paulo, one of the largest cities in the world. For each mobility policy selected, we build scenarios to evaluate the potential of mitigating GHG emissions, shedding light on institutional aspects, benefits and risks of implementing each measure. Selected policies analyzed in this paper focus on: (i) reduction of frequency and distance of motorized trips; (ii) improvement of public transport; and (ii) technological issues, from improvement of fuel efficiency of all transport modes to replacement of fossil fuels by biofuels. Results show that the measures that present the highest potential to reduce GHG emissions are those that promote the use of biofuels, particularly ethanol, followed by those that favor the use of public transport. Moreover, simulations of integrated policies evidence that their effectiveness depends upon the adoption of coordinated policies at Federal, State and Local levels. Lastly, we highlight the complementary nature of the proposed policies and the contribution of scenario building to the debate on the strategic planning of integrated urban public policies to promote sustainable development in São Paulo City.

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Section: Scenario Building With a Dynamic Simulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity

Menezes¹,

Maia

Carvalho

2017

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…When setting up a new model, the model requires a significant amount of data for calibration such as housing cost, income, living space, and share of owner-occupiers. Along similar lines, ForFITS, the product of the UN Development Account (UNDA), was developed to estimate transport emissions, and evaluate transport policies for CO2 emissions mitigation (Andrejszki et al, 2014). While the model is suitable for the analysis of local, regional, and national transport systems, its primary focus is on national systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of supply-side and demand-side policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions from urban passenger transportation: The case of Istanbul

Batur

Bayram

Кочкодан

2019

Journal of Cleaner Production

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The transportation sector accounts for about a quarter of global energy consumption and energy-related carbon emissions. To design and realize sustainable urban transportation, it is vital to understand and analyze interactions between a set of dynamic factors that shape transportation patterns, behaviors, and impacts. To this end, this study aims to develop a systems dynamics (SD) model for Istanbul, Turkey to simulate its urban motorized passenger transport system for analyzing numerous policies under different scenarios and assessing their potential effects in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the upcoming years. The constructed SD model includes four subsystems: population, household disposable income, transport, and energy and CO2 emissions. Based on historical data (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and model validation processes, the energy consumption and the associated CO2 emissions from motorized passenger transport are forecasted for the following scenarios. The first one is business as usual scenario (BAU) which is designed to show how energy use and the associated CO2 emissions would evolve over time with the current development plans. The second and third scenarios constitute supply management measures (SMM) which consider different levels of improvements in the fuel economy of the vehicle fleet and reduced carbon emission intensity in electricity generation through increased share of renewable energy use. The fourth and fifth scenarios consider travel demand management (TDM) policies that include different levels of transport cost increase, and trip length reduction. Finally, the last two scenarios include integrated scenarios that are composed of the SMM and TDM options. In detail, compared to the BAU scenario, integrated scenario considers (1) a 10% improvement in the fuel economy of the vehicles, (2) a 10% reduction in the emission intensity of electricity generation, (3) a 30% increase in the transportation cost, and (4) a 15% reduction in the trip lengths. Under the BAU scenario, the SD model shows that energy consumption per capita from passenger trips will increase from 183 liters of oil equivalent in 2016 to 315 liters of oil equivalent in 2025 while the associated CO2 emissions per capita will increase from 460 kg in 2016 to 807 kg in 2025. To combat this dramatic growth, the findings indicate that the ambitious integrated scenario achieves the lowest energy consumption and CO2 emissions by offering a 33.5% expected reduction in total energy consumption and a 32.8% expected reduction in total CO2 emissions. Highlights • Development of system dynamics model for Istanbul passenger transport network• Several supply-side, demand-side, and integrated policy scenarios are generated using cost, emission, and trip-related parameters• Policies are evaluated based on transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions for Istanbul until 2025.• Integrated policies perform the best and lead to nearly one-third of energy and carbon...

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“…Factors that have influence on long distance transport, especially air transport, are economic situation, infrastructure availability, population's growth, migrations, transport service development, transport price, technological progress and secondary homes. Some of them have already been investigated by (Andrejszki et al 2014a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The estimation of GHG emission costs in road and air transport sector: case study of Serbia

2016

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The paper gives special attention on long distance passenger transport and specific emissions related to different transport modes, particularly road and air transport sector. The goal of this research is creation and selection of appropriate methodology for modelling the cost estimation of GHG emissions in road and air transport sector for Republic of Serbia as well as the application of the methodology regarding to detailed calculation by transport mode and sub modes. Input data for road transport sector refer to the 2013 and include road and traffic conditions on the road network. Input data for air transport sector are related to the 2014 and international airport ‘Nikola Tesla’ Belgrade as the main hub point with the highest recorded number of aircraft operations in the Western Balkan countries. The obtained results reveal that, due to realized transport volume, diesel cars have the largest share of the costs of GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions within the passenger long distance road transport. Cost estimates of CO2 emissions in the air transport sector shows that A319 aircraft type have the major share in total costs. The reasons are twofold: first, a high level of Landing and Take-Off (LTO) emission factor for CO2 and second, largest number of LTO cycles.

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ForFITS: a New Help in Transport Decision Making for a Sustainable Future

Abstract: Abstract

Cited by 17 publications

References 17 publications

Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity

Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity

Impact assessment of supply-side and demand-side policies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions from urban passenger transportation: The case of Istanbul

The estimation of GHG emission costs in road and air transport sector: case study of Serbia

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