Hindsight Bias

Roese, Neal J.; Vohs, Kathleen D.

doi:10.1177/1745691612454303

Cited by 393 publications

(311 citation statements)

References 196 publications

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“…The distorted effort rating observed in the current study also bears resemblance to hindsight bias (22), reflecting a tendency to change recalled probability estimations once outcomes are known. As in a hindsight bias, retrospective change in effort estimation might reflect a general tendency to reshape memory contents to make them fit with an updated knowledge base (23).…”

Section: Fig 2 (A)supporting

confidence: 52%

Receipt of reward leads to altered estimation of effort

Pooresmaeili

Wannig²,

Dolan

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Effort and reward jointly shape many human decisions. Errors in predicting the required effort needed for a task can lead to suboptimal behavior. Here, we show that effort estimations can be biased when retrospectively reestimated following receipt of a rewarding outcome. These biases depend on the contingency between reward and task difficulty and are stronger for highly contingent rewards. Strikingly, the observed pattern accords with predictions from Bayesian cue integration, indicating humans deploy an adaptive and rational strategy to deal with inconsistencies between the efforts they expend and the ensuing rewards.Aye, and I saw Sisyphus in violent torment, seeking to raise a monstrous stone with both his hands.Homer, Book XI of The Odyssey T he adage "it was well worth the effort" highlights an assumed interdependency between attainment of reward and retrospective effort assignment. Despite its ubiquity we know little about the nature of these retrospective effort estimations. Previous studies have focused on the interaction of effort and reward as costs and benefits when a choice is to be made (1-5). Whether receipt of reward influences a retrospective estimation of effort is not known. Intuitively, we assume to have immediate and unbiased access to internal representations of how much "effort" we expended in an endeavor. Here, we demonstrate that retrospective estimation of effort is strongly affected by the amount of monetary reward attained and, as such, is profoundly biased. This bias adheres to established principles of Bayesian cue integration (6-8) and, on this basis, is not irrational.In a behavioral experiment, participants pressed two buttons on a keyboard to push a ball up a virtual ramp and rated their experienced physical effort in each trial ( Fig. 1; see also SI Materials and Methods for additional information regarding the task). The ball rolled back by a constant amount on each frame of the display, hence simulating a gravity force that varied so as to manipulate task difficulty (n = 6 difficulty levels, adjusted individually for each participant). Successful trials where participants managed to push the ball all of the way up the ramp were rewarded. Reward was contingent upon task difficulty (with values drawn from six Gaussian distributions with means from 1.5 to 6.5 cents) and the strength of this contingency varied across different blocks of the experiment (SDs of 1.2 or 2.5 cents). Additionally, we included a control experiment in which reward receipt was unrelated to task difficulty (SD = ∞).The reward information was presented either before or after the rating of effort (in 90% and 10% of trials, respectively). Trials in which reward was shown after the estimation of effort served as a reference, because here subjects are not influenced by preceding reward information. Participants were instructed to pay attention to all information presented in a trial, including a brief color change of the ball (50% of the trials), which they needed to detect on each trial. This manipulation was...

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Section: Fig 2 (A)supporting

confidence: 52%

Receipt of reward leads to altered estimation of effort

Pooresmaeili

Wannig²,

Dolan

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Whereas the memory design requires participants to make a naïve prediction and then recall this prediction after learning the actual outcome, the hypothetical design involves participants learning the actual outcome and then generating an estimate of what they would have predicted without the benefit of outcome knowledge. Although a sense-making process is presumed to underlie HB in the hypothetical design (Pezzo & Pezzo, 2007;Roese & Vohs, 2012), sense-making may also be initiated in the memory design conditional on a failed OJ recollection. If the OJ is not accessible, then individuals may attempt to make sense of the outcome by searching for viable explanations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With regard to HB more specifically, researchers have had some success in reducing HB when asking participants to list reasons for making their decision, to think of plausible alternative outcomes, and to provide evidence contrary to the outcome (Pezzo & Pezzo, 2007;Roese & Vohs, 2012;Slovic & Fischhoff, 1977). Furthermore, in the decision-making and cognitive aging literature, researchers have shown that strategies such as presenting less information (i.e., reducing cognitive load) when making complex decisions can effectively increase older adults' decision-making capabilities (e.g., medical decision, Wood et al, 2011).…”

Section: The Implications Of Hindsight Bias In Older Adultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining individual differences in cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias

et al. 2014

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Outcome knowledge influences recall of earlier predictions of an event. Compared to younger adults, older adults are more susceptible to the two underlying bias processes that contribute to this hindsight bias (HB) phenomenon, recollection bias and reconstruction bias. However, the role of cognitive abilities in these processes remains unclear. In Experiment 1, we extended the multinomial processing tree model for HB by incorporating individual variation in cognitive abilities into parameter estimation in a sample of 60 older (M = 72.50, range = 65 to 87) and 62 younger (M = 20.10, range = 18 to 25) adults. In older adults, our findings revealed that (1) higher episodic memory was associated with higher recollection ability in the absence of outcome knowledge, (2) higher episodic memory, inhibitory control, and working memory capacity were associated with higher recollection ability in the presence of outcome knowledge, and (3) higher inhibitory control was associated with less reconstruction bias. Although the pattern of effects was similar in younger adults, the cognitive covariates did not significantly predict the underlying processes in this age group.In Experiment 2, we collected memory judgment HB data on an additional 80 older adults (M = 71.40, range = 65 to 87) to assess whether a) experimentally increasing inhibition demands via outcome rehearsal during the HB task impacts the underlying HB processes, and b) the effects of this cognitive load manipulation on the underlying HB processes vary with an individuals' inherent cognitive abilities. Our findings revealed that cognitive load increased recollection bias independently of individuals' cognitive abilities. I would like to give a special thank you to Brant for his inspiration and statistical assistance, and his endless love and confidence in me.vi

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“…A problem relating to this type of study is hindsight bias-a belief that an event is more predictable after 3 Available at https://servicifi.wordpress.com/ICSME-2 it becomes known than it was before it became known [53]. In this research, it means that interviewees might tend to reconstruct the business goals based on the results of the impacts.…”

Section: Validitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Does software modernization deliver what it aimed for? A post modernization analysis of five software modernization case studies

Khadka

Shrestha

Klein

et al. 2015

2015 IEEE International Conference on Software Maintenance and Evolution (ICSME)

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Abstract-Software modernization has been extensively researched, primarily focusing on observing the associated phenomena, and providing technical solutions to facilitate the modernization process. Software modernization is claimed to be successful when the modernization is completed using those technical solutions. Very limited research, if any, is reported with an aim at documenting the post-modernization impacts, i.e., whether any of the pre-modernization business goals are in fact achieved after modernization. In this research, we attempt to address this relative absence of empirical study through five retrospective software modernization case studies. We use an explanatory case study approach to document the pre-modernization business goals, and to decide whether those goals have been achieved. The intended benefits for each of the five cases we considered were all (partially) met, and in most cases fully. Moreover, many cases exhibited a number of unintended benefits, and some reported detrimental effects of modernization.

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Hindsight Bias

Cited by 393 publications

References 196 publications

Receipt of reward leads to altered estimation of effort

Receipt of reward leads to altered estimation of effort

Explaining individual differences in cognitive processes underlying hindsight bias

Does software modernization deliver what it aimed for? A post modernization analysis of five software modernization case studies

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