Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia

Huggel, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramı́rez, Juan M.

doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9393-0

Cited by 53 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Together with the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation and within a risk reduction project, local and regional authorities recently started implementing an early-warning system whose design is described in Huggel et al (2010). Three rainfall gauging stations were installed in 2008, each of which includes rainfall measuring equipment and a geophone.…”

Section: Results and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the past, rainfall-triggered floods have repeatedly affected the region and claimed lives (Huggel et al 2010). Particularly problematic is thereby that many people, especially the poor, live directly at the margin of the Combeima.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to volcano and flood hazards, landslides from steep slopes and tributary valleys threaten the Combeima valley. This type of hazard is not a focus of this paper but has been studied by Huggel et al (2010). figure): 1 present ice cover; 2 Holocene andesitic and basaltic lava flows with high resistance to erosion, and recent glacial moraines (*nineteenth century) with grain size of 50-60 % blocks, 15-25 % gravel, 5-10 % sand and 15-25 % fines; 3 pyroclastic flow and surge deposits, partly also andesitic lava; 4 pyroclastic flow and surge deposits overlaid by recent alluvium and debris flow/lahar deposits in the channel; 5 unconsolidated recent alluvial and debris flow or lahar deposits.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

Künzler

Huggel

Ramı́rez³

2012

Nat Hazards

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The glacier-covered Nevado del Tolima in the Colombian Cordillera Central is an active volcano with potential lahars that might be more hazardous than those on Nevado del Ruiz. Furthermore, rainfalltriggered floods and landslides notoriously and severely affect the region. For effective disaster prevention, a risk analysis is of primary importance. We present here a risk analysis methodology that is based on the assessment of lahar and rainfall-related flood hazard scenarios and different aspects of vulnerability. The methodology is applied for populated centres in the Combeima valley and the regional capital Ibagué (*500,000 inhabitants). Lahar scenarios of 0.5, 1, 5, and 15 million m3 volume are based on melting of 1, 2, 10, and 25 % of ice, firn and snow, respectively, due to volcanic activity and subsequent lahar formation. For flood modelling, design floods with a return period of 10 and 100 years were calculated. Vulnerability is assessed considering physical vulnerability, operationalized by market values of dwelling parcels and population density, whereas social vulnerability is expressed by the age structure of the population and poverty. Standardization of hazard and vulnerability allows for the integration into a risk equation, resulting in five-level risk maps, with additional quantitative estimate of damage. The probability of occurrence of lahars is low, but impacts would be disastrous, with about 20,000 people and more directly exposed to it. Floods are much more recurrent, but affected areas are generally smaller. High-risk zones in Ibaguéare found in urban areas close to the main river with high social vulnerability. The methodology has proven to be a suitable tool to provide a first overview of spatial distribution of risk which is considered by local and regional authorities for disaster risk reduction. The harmonization of technical-engineering risk analysis and approaches from social sciences into common reference concepts should be further developed. Abstract The glacier-covered Nevado del Tolima in the Colombian Cordillera Central is an active volcano with potential lahars that might be more hazardous than those on Nevado del Ruiz. Furthermore, rainfall-triggered floods and landslides notoriously and severely affect the region. For effective disaster prevention, a risk analysis is of primary importance. We present here a risk analysis methodology that is based on the assessment of lahar and rainfall-related flood hazard scenarios and different aspects of vulnerability. The methodology is applied for populated centres in the Combeima valley and the regional capital Ibagué (*500,000 inhabitants). Lahar scenarios of 0.5, 1, 5, and 15 million m 3 volume are based on melting of 1, 2, 10, and 25 % of ice, firn and snow, respectively, due to volcanic activity and subsequent lahar formation. For flood modelling, design floods with a return period of 10 and 100 years were calculated. Vulnerability is assessed considering physical vulnerability, operationalized by market values of dwellin...

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Section: Results and Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

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A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

Künzler

Huggel

Ramı́rez³

2012

Nat Hazards

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“…The rainfall recording is continuous on daily charts, which can be evaluated to intervals as low as 15 minutes. Based on the IDEAM rainfall data, rainfall intensity-duration curves have been calculated, indicating that for a duration of 60 min the 10-year return period intensity may vary between 40 and 60 mm/h (Huggel et al, 2010). Between 2007 and 2010, four telemetric stations were installed which can be programmed to transmit measured data when a rainfall increment occurs (i.e.…”

Section: Rainfall Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation capacity of a landslide early warning system to climate change: numerical modeling for Combeima region in Colombia

Khabarov¹,

Huggel²,

Obersteiner³

et al. 2011

IDRiM Journal

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Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydrometeorological hazards, including landslides. EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced.In this paper we utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Correct evacuation was assessed with a 'true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that has been implemented in recent years within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage.The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

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“…EWSs at a regional scale for rainfall-induced landslides have become a sustainable risk management approach worldwide to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately defined wide warning zones. In fact, during the last decades, several systems have been designed and improved, not only in developing countries (UNISDR, 2006;Chen et al, 2007;Huggel et al, 2010; among others) but also in developed countries (NOAA-USGS, 2005;Badoux et al, 2009;Baum and Godt, 2010;Osanai et al, 2010;Lagomarsino et al, 2013;Tiranti and Rabuffetti, 2010;Rossi et al, 2012;Staley et al, 2013;Calvello et al, 2015;Segoni et al, 2015). As a recent example, the Norwegian LEWS was launched in autumn 2013 by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

Piciullo

Dahl

Devoli

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

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Implementation and integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system: a pilot study in Colombia

Cited by 53 publications

References 29 publications

A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

Adaptation capacity of a landslide early warning system to climate change: numerical modeling for Combeima region in Colombia

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

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