Influence of incentive networks on landscape changes: A simple agent-based simulation approach

Abstract

International audienceThe aim of this paper is to implement a simple model for exploring the influence of different multi-scale incentive networks affecting farmer decision on landscape changes. Three scales of networks are considered: a global ‘policy’ network promoting specific land uses, an intermediate ‘social’ network where land use practices are shared and promoted collectively and a local ‘neighborhood’ network where land use practices are influenced by those of their neighbors. We assess the respective and combined influence of these networks on landscape pattern (fragmentation and heterogeneity) and dynamics, taking into account agronomic constraints (assimilated to crop successions). Simulations show that combination of incentive networks does not have linear and/or cumulative influence on landscape changes. Comparison of simulated scenarios highlights that a combination of two networks tends to improve landscape heterogeneity and fragmentation; scenarios combining all networks could lead to two opposite landscape configuration illustrating emergence of landscape dynamics. Finally, this study emphasizes that landscape complexity has also to be understood through the multiplicity of pathways of landscape changes rather than the assessment of the resulting landscape patterns

Cultural landscapes and behavioral transformations: An agent-based model for the simulation and discussion of alternative landscape futures in East Lesvos, Greece

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Modelling uncertainty in social–natural interactions

“…Global socio-economic changes affect regional and local socioeconomic structures (Lambin et al, 2001;Foley et al, 2005) and lead to changes in land uses in the landscape (Schmitz et al, 2005;Caillault et al, 2013) and in the structure and functionality of natural ecosystems (Matson et al, 1997;Foley et al, 2005;Rudel et al, 2009). One of the main effects of these changes relates to the behaviour of water flows (Scanlon et al, 2005;Maes et al, 2009;Toda et al, 2010;Park et al, 2014).…”

Measuring the temporal instability of land change using the Flow matrix

“…However, many basic challenges remain – from understanding path dependence (Caillault et al, in Press; An and Brown 2008) to quantifying uncertainty and accuracy (Pontius et al 2007; Rindfuss et al 2004). One such basic challenge is to measure how consistent historic trends have been, either to describe the landscape or to calibrate a model for future projections.…”