Intense Geomagnetic Storm during Maunder Minimum Possibly by a Quiescent Filament Eruption

Isobe, Hiroaki; Ebihara, Yusuke; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Hayakawa, Hisashi

doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab107e

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…Studies of cosmogenic radionuclides arguably suggest that the last 400 years, an interval that includes both the Maunder Minimum and the recent grand maximum (Lockwood et al, 2009) cover almost the full range of solarterrestrial activity levels (Usoskin, 2017). From understanding solar conditions during the Maunder Minimum (hereafter, MM), we can make deductions about solar-terrestrial effects, which will enable us to start to construct a climatology of space weather phenomena that covers all possible activity ranges (e.g., Schröder, 1992;Silverman, 1992;Usoskin et al, 2007Usoskin et al, , 2015 Topical Issue -Space climate: The past and future of solar activity Lockwood et al, 2017a, Isobe et al, 2019Hayakawa et al, 2020b;2018c). This could be used with probability estimates of future grand minima (Barnard et al, 2011) to aid the design of operational systems that will be needed in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Graphical evidence for the solar coronal structure during the Maunder minimum: comparative study of the total eclipse drawings in 1706 and 1715

Hayakawa

Lockwood

Owens

et al. 2021

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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We discuss the significant implications of three eye-witness drawings of the total solar eclipse on 1706 May 12 in comparison with two on 1715 May 3, for our understanding of space climate change. These events took place just after what has been termed the “deep Maunder Minimum” but fall within the “extended Maunder Minimum” being in an interval when the sunspot numbers start to recover. Maria Clara Eimmert’s image in 1706 is particularly important because she was both a highly accomplished astronomical observer and an excellent artist: it was thought lost and was only re-discovered in 2012. Being the earliest coronal drawings of observational value yet identified, these drawings corroborate verbal accounts a corona without significant streamers, seen at totality of this and another eclipse event in 1652 during the Maunder Minimum. The graphical evidence implies that the coronal solar magnetic field was not lost but significantly weakened and the lack of coronal structure means there was little discernable open flux (either polar or at lower latitudes) even during the recovery phase of the Maunder Minimum. These observations provide evidence for a different state of oscillation of the solar dynamo and hence behaviour of the Sun in comparison with that during normal solar cycle minima (when a streamer belt between two polar coronal holes is visible) or near normal sunspot maxima (when coronal structure is caused by coronal holes at all latitudes) even to observers without a telescope.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Graphical evidence for the solar coronal structure during the Maunder minimum: comparative study of the total eclipse drawings in 1706 and 1715

Hayakawa

Lockwood

Owens

et al. 2021

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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“…Its ICME-origin is acceptable, as the sunspot AR is recorded a few days before this candidate aurora, the rate of ICMEs is estimated to be comparable between the recent solar minima (2008/2009 and 1996/1997) and the MM (Owens and Lockwood, 2012), and intensity of this storm was not that extreme (minimal Dst ≤ −100 nT). In fact, despite the empirical preference of ICME occurrence around the maximum, or the declining phase of the solar cycle (Kilpua et al, 2015;Lefevre et al, 2016) observations (e.g., Letfus, 2000;Isobe et al, 2019). While ICMEs and source sunspots have been expected for the origin of these candidate aurorae (Riley et al, 2015), a considerable ratio of the candidate aurorae described during the MM in Rethly and Berkes (1963) were probably misinterpretations, as already clarified by themselves.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…In this context, it is important to analyse likely robust geomagnetic storms in the core MM during the period 1650-1700 (Vaquero and Trigo, 2015;c.f., Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016). One such case was a major storm in March 1653 confirmed by simultaneous observations in East Asia (Willis and Stephenson, 2000;Isobe et al, 2019). Another candidate case with simultaneous observations is known from May 1680 (Fritz, 1873; see also Schröder, 1978).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

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Candidate Auroral Observations Indicating a Major Solar–Terrestrial Storm in 1680: Implication for Space Weather Events during the Maunder Minimum

Hayakawa

Schlegel²,

Besser

et al. 2021

ApJ

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The Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645–1715) is currently considered the only grand minimum within telescopic sunspot observations since 1610. During this epoch, the Sun was extremely quiet and unusually free from sunspots. However, despite a reduced frequency, candidate aurorae were reported in the mid-European sector during this period and have been associated with occurrences of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), although some of them have been identified as misinterpretations. Here, we have analyzed reports of candidate aurorae on 1680 June 1 with simultaneous observations in central Europe, and compared their descriptions with visual accounts of early modern aurorae. Contemporary sunspot drawings on 1680 May 22, 24, and 27 have shown a sunspot. This sunspot may have been a source of ICMEs, which caused the reported candidate aurorae. On the other hand, its intensity estimate shows that the geomagnetic storm during this candidate aurora was probably within the capability of the storms derived from the corotating interaction region (CIR). Therefore, we accommodate both ICMEs and CIRs as its possible origin. This interpretation is probably applicable to a number of candidate aurorae in the oft-cited Hungarian catalog, on the basis of the reconstructed margin of their equatorward auroral boundary. Moreover, this catalog itself has clarified that the considerable candidates during the MM were probably misinterpretations. Therefore, the frequency of the auroral visibility in Hungary was probably lower than previously considered and agrees more with the generally slow solar wind in the existing reconstructions, whereas sporadic occurrences of sunspots and coronal holes still caused occasional geomagnetic storms.

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“…Cosmogenic isotope based reconstructions help us understand the solar activity level in the past and we can make deductions about solar magnetic activity driven terrestrial effects and space weather phenomena covering all possible activity ranges (e.g. Usoskin et al 2007Usoskin et al , 2015Schröder 1992;Silverman 1992;Lockwood et al 2017;Hayakawa et al 2020;Isobe et al 2019;Pal et al 2020). But they lack description of the coronal magnetic field distribution which governs the space climate modulation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term forcing of Sun's coronal field, open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential during grand minima, maxima and regular activity phases by the solar dynamo mechanism

Dash¹,

Nandy²,

Usoskin³

2022

Preprint

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Magnetic fields generated in the Sun's interior by the solar dynamo mechanism drive solar activity over a range of time-scales. While space-based observations of the Sun's corona exist only for few decades, direct sunspot observations exist for few centuries, solar open flux and cosmic ray flux variations can be reconstructed through studies of cosmogenic isotopes over thousands of years. While such reconstructions indicate the presence of extreme solar activity fluctuations in the past, causal links between millennia scale dynamo activity, consequent coronal field, solar open flux and cosmic ray modulation remain elusive. By utilizing a stochastically forced solar dynamo model we perform long-term simulations to illuminate how the dynamo generated magnetic fields govern the structure of the solar corona and the state of the heliosphere -as indicated by variations in the open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential. We establish differences in the nature of the large-scale structuring of the solar corona during grand maximum, minimum, and regular solar activity phases and simulate how the open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential varies over time scales encompassing these different phases of solar activity. We demonstrate that the power spectrum of simulated and reconstructed solar open flux are consistent with each other. Our study provides the theoretical basis for interpreting long-term solar cycle variability based on reconstructions relying on cosmogenic isotopes and connects solar internal variations to the forcing of the state of the heliosphere.

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Intense Geomagnetic Storm during Maunder Minimum Possibly by a Quiescent Filament Eruption

Cited by 10 publications

References 75 publications

Graphical evidence for the solar coronal structure during the Maunder minimum: comparative study of the total eclipse drawings in 1706 and 1715

Graphical evidence for the solar coronal structure during the Maunder minimum: comparative study of the total eclipse drawings in 1706 and 1715

Candidate Auroral Observations Indicating a Major Solar–Terrestrial Storm in 1680: Implication for Space Weather Events during the Maunder Minimum

Long-term forcing of Sun's coronal field, open flux and cosmic ray modulation potential during grand minima, maxima and regular activity phases by the solar dynamo mechanism

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