Main Assumptions for Energy Pathways

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to make the scenario calculations fully transparent and comprehensible to the scientific community. It provides the scenario narratives for the reference case (5.0 °C) as well as for the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C on a global and regional basis. Cost projections for all fossil fuels and renewable energy technologies until 2050 are provided. Explanations are given for all relevant base year data for the modelling and the main input parameters such as GDP, population, renewable energy potentials and technology parameters. Scenario studies cannot predict the future, but they can describe what is needed for a successful pathway in terms of technology implementation and investments. Scenarios also help us to explore the possible effects of transition processes, such as supply costs and emissions. The energy demand and supply scenarios in this study are based on information about current energy structures and today's knowledge of energy resources and the costs involved in deploying them. As far as possible, we also take into account potential constraints and preferences in each world region. However, this remains difficult due to large sub-regional variations. Our energy modelling primarily aims to achieve a transparent and consistent scenario, an ambitious but still plausible storyline from several possible techno-economic pathways. Knowledge integration is the core of this approach because we must consider different technical, economic, environmental, and societal factors. The scenario modelling follows a hybrid bottom-up/top-down approach, with no cost optimising objective functions. The analysis considers the key technologies required for a successful energy transition, and focuses on the roles and potential of renewable energies. Wind and solar energies have the highest economic potential and dominate the pathways on the

It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

“…The REF Scenario provides the lower benchmarks for efficiency potentials derived from the Current Policies Scenario of the IEA World Energy Outlook [15]. The upper benchmarks for the efficiency potentials for each world region are taken from the literature [18,19], including the low-energy-demand (LED) scenario [20,21]. In the transport sector, a combination of technical measures and modal shifts reduce annual passenger kilometres for private vehicles by 25% in OECD countries under the 1.5 • C scenario.…”

“…The IPCC [8] concluded that 'at the global level, scenarios reaching about 450 ppm CO 2 eq are (also) characterized by more rapid improvements in energy efficiency' and Lovins [22] identified energy efficiency among the most cost-effective ways to reduce carbon emissions. As well as reducing the energy demand by improving energy efficiency, the two energy decarbonization pathways are based on expanding renewable energy supply technologies [21]. Figure 1 shows the resulting final energy demands by sector and scenario, and the primary energy by energy carrier.…”

“…How much each renewable energy source supplies to the total demand depends on regional opportunities for and constraints upon deploying renewable energies [21,23]. In the 1.5 • C Scenario, solar heat and power technologies provide over 50% of the total primary energy demand in the global sun belt, because solar is readily available and comparatively inexpensive (see Figure 2).…”

“…The graphical interface serves for structuring the modelled system and defining the quantitative interdependences between individual elements at different structural depths. Details of the structure and relevant model equations are given in the literature [21,74]. The energy flows of the energy system are balanced in the model on an annual basis.…”