Modelling coupled human–environment complexity for the future of the biosphere: strengths, gaps and promising directions

Abstract

Humans and the environment form a single complex system where humans not only influence ecosystems but also react to them. Despite this, there are far fewer coupled human–environment system (CHES) mathematical models than models of uncoupled ecosystems. We argue that these coupled models are essential to understand the impacts of social interventions and their potential to avoid catastrophic environmental events and support sustainable trajectories on multi-decadal timescales. A brief history of CHES modelling is presented, followed by a review spanning recent CHES models of systems including forests and land use, coral reefs and fishing and climate change mitigation. The ability of CHES modelling to capture dynamic two-way feedback confers advantages, such as the ability to represent ecosystem dynamics more realistically at longer timescales, and allowing insights that cannot be generated using ecological models. We discuss examples of such key insights from recent research. However, this strength brings with it challenges of model complexity and tractability, and the need for appropriate data to parameterize and validate CHES models. Finally, we suggest opportunities for CHES models to improve human–environment sustainability in future research spanning topics such as natural disturbances, social structure, social media data, model discovery and early warning signals. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.

Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years

“…Conversely, 1 − x will be the rest of the population, which would adhere to a non-conservation policy. The last term, Δ U ( x , R ), introduces a difference between utilities [ 85 ]. Additionally, a dynamical equation for R (i.e.…”

“…7Þ is a dynamical system where x represents the relative fraction of the population adopting a conservation/mitigation option while exploiting a limited resource R. Conversely, 1 − x will be the rest of the population, which would adhere to a nonconservation policy. The last term, ΔU(x, R), introduces a difference between utilities [85]. Additionally, a dynamical equation for R (i.e.…”

Incorporating human behaviour into Earth system modelling

“…1) 28,29 . Similarly, a changing physical climate will not act on a passive and unresponsive population, but rather people will prepare for and respond dynamically to changing environmental conditions in a fully coupled human-natural system [8][9][10][11][12][13][14] . In this manuscript, we discuss how to incorporate human behaviour into Earth system models broadly and climate models in particular.…”

“…The Earth is a complex system composed of coupled natural and human systems characterized by nonlinear feedbacks that challenge the skill of models and forecasts 10,14,15 . Abstracting the climate system from the human system rather than seeing them as inextricably interconnected leads to a reductionist approach, with model development largely confined to disciplinary boundaries 6 .…”

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk Response Based on Planning Control

“…It is also an important policy tool for macro-control governance and micro-fine management of land use. Humans develop and protect land space through management and control of it, thereby changing the orientation of land use and ensuring ecological security [ 24 ]. Current research is mainly focused on the interaction mechanism between LUCC and ecosystems under global environmental change [ 25 , 26 ] and the extrapolation and simulation prediction of LUCC trends at different geographic scales [ 27 , 28 , 29 ], and there are few studies on the relationship between planning control, LUCC, and ecological security.…”