Mortality-based damages per ton due to the on-road mobile sector in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic U.S. by region, vehicle class and precursor

Abstract

On-road vehicular emissions contribute to the formation of fine particulate matter and ozone which can lead to increased adverse health outcomes near the emission source and downwind. In this study, we present a transportation-specific modeling platform utilizing the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ) with the decoupled direct method (DDM) to estimate the air quality and health impacts of on-road vehicular emissions from five vehicles classes; light-duty autos, light-duty trucks (LDT), medium-duty trucks, heavy-duty trucks (HDT), and buses (BUS), on PM2.5 and O3 concentrations at a 12 × 12 kilometer scale for 12 states and Washington D.C. as well as four large metropolitan statistical areas in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. in 2016. CMAQ-DDM allows for the quantification of sensitivities from individual precursor emissions (NO X , SO2, NH3, volatile organic compounds, and PM2.5) in each state to pollution levels and health effects in downwind states. In the region we considered, LDT are responsible for the most PM2.5-attributable premature mortalities at 1234 with 46% and 26% of those mortalities from directly emitted primary particulate matter and NH3, respectively; and O3-attributable premature mortalities at 1129 with 80% of those mortalities from NO X emissions. Based on a detailed source-receptor matrix of sensitivities with subsequent monetization of damages that we computed, we find that the largest damages-per-ton estimate is approximately $4 million per ton of directly emitted primary particulate matter from BUS in the New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan statistical area. We find that on-road vehicular NH3 emissions are the second largest contributor to PM2.5 concentrations and health impacts in the study region, and that reducing 1 ton of NH3 emissions from LDT is ∼75 times and from HDT is ∼90 times greater in terms of damages reductions than a 1 ton reduction of NO X . By quantifying the impacts by each combination of source region, vehicle class, and emissions precursor this study allows for a comprehensive understanding of the largest vehicular sources of air quality-related premature mortalities in a heavily populated part of the U.S. and can inform future policies aimed at reducing those impacts.

ZIP Code-Level Estimation of Air Quality and Health Risk Due to Particulate Matter Pollution in New York City

“…Despite multiple policies addressing fuel switching and technology changes, emissions remain high enough to impact the city’s population. In the past decade, multiple studies focused on PM 2.5 pollution in NYC, including concentration trends 11 − 15 , 22 source apportionment, 16 , 17 health burden, 18 − 23 and emission control. 25 , 26 Despite declines in PM 2.5 concentrations (New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS) 27 2019 and U.S. EPA monitoring observations from 2011 to 2020), the health burden attributed to current ambient levels of PM 2.5 is still high enough to be of concern.…”

“…Traffic emissions from the New York Metropolitan Statistical Area (NYMSA) were estimated to have caused ∼1800 premature deaths due to exposure to PM 2.5 and O 3 , with 20% due to emissions from medium-duty trucks (MDT) and 17% due to the heavy-duty trucks (HDT) sector. 11 Jin et al 29 used multiple estimates of PM 2.5 exposures for New York state from varying techniques (satellite remote sensing, air quality modeling, land use regression modeling, etc.) and assess gains in air pollution-related health benefits for a decadal period and state a 28% uncertainty because of choice of different techniques for estimating air pollution levels.…”

“…New York City (NYC), the densest city in the United States with an area of 783 km 2 and a population of more than 8.41 million (population density of 27 346 people/sq-km), continues to experience major impacts from PM 2.5 . , NYC has an ever-increasing energy demand in all its emissions sectors (buildings, on-road, and power generation). Despite multiple policies addressing fuel switching and technology changes, emissions remain high enough to impact the city’s population.…”

“…Despite multiple policies addressing fuel switching and technology changes, emissions remain high enough to impact the city’s population. In the past decade, multiple studies focused on PM 2.5 pollution in NYC, including concentration trends − , source apportionment, , health burden, − and emission control. , Despite declines in PM 2.5 concentrations (New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS) 2019 and U.S. EPA monitoring observations from 2011 to 2020), the health burden attributed to current ambient levels of PM 2.5 is still high enough to be of concern . The NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene estimates that annually (2015–2017 average) almost 2000 premature deaths and more than 6500 emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations can be attributed to PM 2.5 emissions in the region from multiple sources .…”

Can Industrial Restructuring Improve Urban Air Quality?—A Quasi-Experiment in Beijing during the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…There are also several possible reasons. Researchers found that a decrease in PM 2.5 can lead to an increase in the O 3 concentration [62,63] because PM 2.5 can eliminate the precursors of ozone, including hydroxyl radicals and nitrogen-oxygen free radicals [64,65]. When the PM 2.5 concentration falls, the concentrations of hydroxyl radicals and nitrogen-oxygen free radicals in the air will increase, thereby promoting the production of ozone [66].…”