National and Subnational Population-Based Incidence of Cancer in Thailand: Assessing Cancers with the Highest Burdens

Abstract

In Thailand, five cancer types—breast, cervical, colorectal, liver and lung cancer—contribute to over half of the cancer burden. The magnitude of these cancers must be quantified over time to assess previous health policies and highlight future trajectories for targeted prevention efforts. We provide a comprehensive assessment of these five cancers nationally and subnationally, with trend analysis, projections, and number of cases expected for the year 2025 using cancer registry data. We found that breast (average annual percent change (AAPC): 3.1%) and colorectal cancer (female AAPC: 3.3%, male AAPC: 4.1%) are increasing while cervical cancer (AAPC: −4.4%) is decreasing nationwide. However, liver and lung cancers exhibit disproportionately higher burdens in the northeast and north regions, respectively. Lung cancer increased significantly in northeastern and southern women, despite low smoking rates. Liver cancers are expected to increase in the northern males and females. Liver cancer increased in the south, despite the absence of the liver fluke, a known factor, in this region. Our findings are presented in the context of health policy, population dynamics and serve to provide evidence for future prevention strategies. Our subnational estimates provide a basis for understanding variations in region-specific risk factor profiles that contribute to incidence trends over time.

Cervical Cancer in Khon Kaen, Thailand: Analysis of 1990-2014 Incidence Data and Prediction of Future Trends

“…This is consistent with the reported incidence in a previous study which studied the trend in incidence of five cancers and prediction of future trends in each region of Thailand. The study found that the incidence rates of other regions (north, central, south) would be continuously decreasing in the future until 2030 (Virani et al, 2017). Thus, the projection is ensured when there is no major change affecting the screening scheme in the near future if the screening is still continuing indefinitely.…”

“…In the south, the APC was increasing at 2.1% per year before 2000. The drop in ASR after the year 2000 was obvious and continuous with APC of -5.0% per year (Virani et al, 2017). We have hypothesized that the decline in the incidence of cervical cancer might be the result of the organized screening program.…”

National Cancer Control Program of Thailand

“…Since 2006, NCI has played a leading role in carrying out cancer prevention campaigns, with five does and don't using a wide variety of education materials, talks at schools, and public education through all social media al., 2016). A decrease was projected in all geographic zones except the North-East during 2012-2025 (Virani et al, 2017). However, a decreasing trend in incidence of cervical cancer in Khon Kaen was evident from 1990 to 2014 with a prediction of continuous decrease until 2029 (Saenrueang et al, 2019).…”

Current Colorectal Cancer in Thailand

“…From 2000 to 2012, CRC was the only malignancy in Thailand with an increased incidence in both sexes (average annual percent changes in males = 4.1% and in females = 3.1%) regardless of geographic region [2]. Currently, CRC is the third leading cancer in males and the fourth most common cancer in females.…”