Oceanic ensemble forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: An application to the case of the Deep Water Horizon oil spill

Khade, V. V.; Kurian, Jaison; Chang, Ping; Szunyogh, Istvan; Thyng, Kristen M.; Montuoro, Raffaele

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.04.004

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…The Gulf of Mexico is a marginal sea of the Atlantic Ocean, with substantial mixing of Atlantic and Gulf waters (see Khade et al, 2017 for a recent discussion), including inflows of saltwater from the Caribbean Sea and freshwater from two-thirds of the conterminous United States and a portion of Canada. Formed 165-142 million years ago as seafloor spreading continued following the breakup of the supercontinent Pangea (Stern and Dickinson, 2010), the Gulf had opened to the Atlantic Ocean by approximately 155 million years ago.…”

Section: Background Of the Gulf Coast Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast

Glickson¹,

Özkan-Haller²,

Carter³

et al. 2018

Geological Society of America Abstracts With Programs

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Division), and Eric White (The Water Institute of the Gulf). The committee would also like to thank Brad Murray of Duke University, who provided information to the committee via a webinar. This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

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Section: Background Of the Gulf Coast Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast

Glickson¹,

Özkan-Haller²,

Carter³

et al. 2018

Geological Society of America Abstracts With Programs

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Within ocean applications, preliminary studies show that coastal predictions benefit from improved ensemble spread generated by stochastic elements (Quattrocchi et al, 2014;Vervatis et al, 2016;2019). In downstream applications such as biogeochemical models and oil spill, the adoption of ensemble forecasting is shown to have even larger impacts (Khade et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new stochastic ocean physics package and its application to hybrid‐covariance data assimilation

Storto

Andriopoulos

2021

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Generating optimal perturbations is a key requirement of several data assimilation schemes. Here, we present a newly developed stochastic physics package for ocean models, implemented in the NEMO ocean general circulation model. The package includes three schemes applied simultaneously: stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies (SPPT), stochastically perturbed parameters (SPP) and stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) schemes. The three schemes allow for different temporal and spatial perturbation scales.Within a limited-area ocean model configuration, ensemble free-running simulations were performed to assess the impact and reliability of the schemes. They prove complementary in increasing the ensemble spread at different scales and for different diagnostics. The ensemble spread appears reliable; for instance, it proves consistent with the root-mean-square differences with respect to higher-resolution (sub-mesoscale) simulations that here represent the "truth" (in the sense that it includes "unresolved physics"). Interestingly, both the SPPT and the SKEB schemes lead to an increase of eddy kinetic energy at small spatial scales (2-10 km), and contribute to modify the ensemble mean state, mitigating warm biases near the thermocline due to the enhancement of the upper ocean vertical mixing. As an application of the stochastic packages, the ensemble anomaly covariances coming from the ensemble free-running simulations are used to feed large-scale anisotropic covariances that complement smaller-scale ones in a hybrid-covariance regional analysis and forecast system in the Mediterranean Sea. Ensemble-derived covariances are formulated as slowly varying three-dimensional low-resolution empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). The improvements due to the addition of such covariances to the stationary ones are found significant in real-data experiments, within verification skill scores against glider profile data, remotely sensed observations and current speed measurements from drifters, radar and moorings.

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“…The wind is a major source of errors in oil spill modeling (Li et al, 2013(Li et al, , 2019Khade et al, 2017). Incomplete knowledge of atmospheric initial conditions and simplifications in atmospheric model parameterizations due to constraints in computational resources are major sources of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction systems (Buizza, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil spill model uncertainty quantification using an atmospheric ensemble

et al. 2021

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Abstract. We investigate the impact of atmospheric forcing uncertainties on the prediction of the dispersion of pollutants in the marine environment. Ensemble simulations consisting of 50 members were carried out using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and the oil spill model MEDSLIK-II in the Aegean Sea. A deterministic control run using the unperturbed wind of the ECMWF high-resolution system served as reference for the oil spill prediction. We considered the oil spill rates and duration to be similar to major accidents of the past (e.g., the Prestige case) and we performed simulations for different seasons and oil spill types. Oil spill performance metrics and indices were introduced in the context of probabilistic hazard assessment. Results suggest that oil spill model uncertainties were sensitive to the atmospheric forcing uncertainties, especially to phase differences in the intensity and direction of the wind among members. An oil spill ensemble prediction system based on model uncertainty of the atmospheric forcing, shows great potential for predicting pathways of oil spill transport alongside a deterministic simulation, increasing the reliability of the model prediction and providing important information for the control and mitigation strategies in the event of an oil spill accident.

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Oceanic ensemble forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: An application to the case of the Deep Water Horizon oil spill

Cited by 11 publications

References 40 publications

Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast

Understanding the Long-Term Evolution of the Coupled Natural-Human Coastal System: The Future of the U.S. Gulf Coast

A new stochastic ocean physics package and its application to hybrid‐covariance data assimilation

Oil spill model uncertainty quantification using an atmospheric ensemble

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