On the Environmental Determinants of COVID‐19 Seasonality

Choi, Yonghyun; Tuel, Alexandre; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

doi:10.1029/2021gh000413

Cited by 48 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Other studies confirmed the seasonal trend of COVID-19 mortality, but none of them focused on temperate climate countries only. Some of them analyzed individual countries or cities ( Zoran et al, 2021 ; Hoogeveen and Hoogeveen, 2021 ; Choi et al, 2021 ; Danon et al, 2021 ), while others arbitrarily selected sets of states around the world with significant climate differences ( Smith et al, 2021 ; Rouen et al, 2020 ). In addition, most papers focused on incidence rates, which may be biased by the testing capacity of individual countries ( Zoran et al, 2021 ; Hoogeveen and Hoogeveen, 2021 ; Choi et al, 2021 ; Danon et al, 2021 ; Smith et al, 2021 ; Rouen et al, 2020 ; Lagacé-Wiens et al, 2021 ; Christophi et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries

D’Amico

Marmiere

Righetti

et al. 2022

Environmental Research

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Introduction While the beneficial effect of vaccination, restrictive measures, and social distancing in reducing mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 is intuitive and taken for granted, seasonality (predictable fluctuation or pattern that recurs or repeats over a one-year period) is still poorly understood and insufficiently taken into consideration. We aimed to examine SARS-CoV-2 seasonality in countries with temperate climate. Methods We identified countries with temperate climate and extracted average country temperature data from the National Center for Environmental information and from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal. We obtained mortality and vaccination rates from an open access database. We used the stringency index derived from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker to quantify restriction policies. We used Spearman's and rank-correlation non-parametric test coefficients to investigate the association between COVID-19 mortality and temperature values. We employed multivariate regression models to analyze how containment measures, vaccinations, and monthly temperatures affected COVID-19 mortality rates. Results The time series for daily deaths per million inhabitants and average monthly temperatures of European countries with a temperate climate had a negative correlation (p < 0.0001 for all countries, 0.40 < R < 0.86). When running multivariate regression models with country fixed effects, we noted that mortality rates were significantly lower when temperature were higher. Interestingly, when adding an interaction term between monthly temperatures and vaccination rates, we found that as monthly temperatures dropped, the effect of the vaccination campaign on mortality was larger than at higher temperatures. Discussion Deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 decreased during the summer period in temperate countries. We found that the effect of vaccination rates on mortality was stronger when temperatures were lower. Stakeholders should consider seasonality in managing SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemics to minimize mortality, limit the pressure on hospitals and intensive care units while maintaining economic and social activities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries

D’Amico

Marmiere

Righetti

et al. 2022

Environmental Research

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“…A 10.7 kJ m −2 h −1 increase in ambient UV radiation increased the time taken for a doubling in the number of people who were virus positive from 5.2 to 5.7 days. Finally, in an analysis of data from 5 countries with different climate conditions and constant social controls of SARS-CoV-2 over the analysis period, low UV radiation was associated with higher viral spread [ 226 ].…”

Section: Human Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

Barnes

Robson

Neale

et al. 2022

Photochem Photobiol Sci

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The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme evaluates effects on the environment and human health that arise from changes in the stratospheric ozone layer and concomitant variations in ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the Earth’s surface. The current update is based on scientific advances that have accumulated since our last assessment (Photochem and Photobiol Sci 20(1):1–67, 2021). We also discuss how climate change affects stratospheric ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation, and how stratospheric ozone depletion affects climate change. The resulting interlinking effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change are assessed in terms of air quality, carbon sinks, ecosystems, human health, and natural and synthetic materials. We further highlight potential impacts on the biosphere from extreme climate events that are occurring with increasing frequency as a consequence of climate change. These and other interactive effects are examined with respect to the benefits that the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments are providing to life on Earth by controlling the production of various substances that contribute to both stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.

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“…The epidemiological trends observed worldwide suggest a seasonal effect for the disease that is not directly controlled by the genomic makeup of the virus [8]. Some researchers suggest that air drying capacity (ADC) and ultraviolet radiation (UV) are probable environmental determinants in shaping the transmission of COVID-19 at a seasonal time scale [55]. Recent global studies have revealed consistent negative effects for both temperature and absolute humidity at large spatial scales for COVID-19 cases, but at finer spatial resolutions, these connections have been substantiated during the seasonal rise and fall of COVID-19 [56].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Climate and Bioclimate on COVID-19 Cases in Poland

et al. 2021

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The correlations between air temperatures, relative and absolute humidity, wind, cloudiness, precipitation and number of influenza cases have been extensively studied in the past. Because, initially, COVID-19 cases were similar to influenza cases, researchers were prompted to look for similar relationships. The aim of the study is to identify the effects of changes in air temperature on the number of COVID-19 infections in Poland. The hypothesis under consideration concerns an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases as temperature decreases. The spatial heterogeneity of the relationship under study during the first year and a half of the COVID-19 pandemic in Polish counties is thus revealed.

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On the Environmental Determinants of COVID‐19 Seasonality

Cited by 48 publications

References 44 publications

COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries

COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2021

The Effects of Climate and Bioclimate on COVID-19 Cases in Poland

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