Present‐day and future climate over central and South America according to <scp>CMIP5</scp>/<scp>CMIP6</scp> models

Ortega, Geusep; Arias, Paola A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Marquet, Pablo A.; Nobre, Paulo

doi:10.1002/joc.7221

Cited by 111 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…2c,f,i,S1). This deficiency in the distribution of precipitation was also observed in the CMIP5 models and downscaled regional climate simulations (e.g., Yin et al 2013;Gulizia and Camilloni 2015;Sánchez et al 2015;Sierra et al 2015;Falco et al 2019;Llopart et al 2020a;Ortega et al 2021). GCMs also tend to produce overly strong precipitation over the central Andes in Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador and southwestern Colombia (Figs.…”

Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 52%

“…The NWS sub-region exhibits distinct climate characteristics both from west to east, including an arid coastal strip, the wetter Andes (or the Sierra region) and the tropical forest region of Peruvian Amazon, and from north to south, including equatorial climate in Ecuador and Colombia and subtropical climate in the southernmost limit of the region (Espinoza et al 2020). Overall, the GCM ensemble captures these principal characteristics of precipitation over these sub-regions, as also highlighted by Ortega et al (2021). However, substantial spread across the mean exists among the models over NSA throughout the year (Fig.…”

Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 69%

“…However, they have a strong bias along the Andes (Fig. 3c), which is partly due to the poor representation of highlands in coarse resolution GCMs (Bozkurt et al 2019;Pabón-Caicedo et al 2020;Arias et al 2021b;Ortega et al 2021).…”

Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Realistic representation of the complex climate characteristics of South America in numerical models remains a challenge. For instance, most studies using Global Climate Models (GCMs) show that while models are able to simulate the main precipitation, temperature and circulation features over the continent, they exhibit systematic errors in precipitation magnitudes, such as underestimation in tropical South America and overestimation in the Andes and La Plata basin (Yin et al 2013;Gulizia and Camilloni 2015;Sierra et al 2015;Zazulie et al 2017;Rivera and Arnould 2020;Arias et al 2021b;Dias and Reboita 2021;Ortega et al 2021). Several studies also document the limitations of GCMs in simulating mesoscale circulation features associated with the Andes (Pabón-Caicedo et al 2020;Arias et al 2021a), and the genesis of mesoscale convective systems over southeastern South America (Muñoz et al 2015(Muñoz et al , 2016Doss-Gollin 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of climate change uncertainty over South America can only emerge if all factors affecting variations in time and space are fully explored. Recent studies highlight that CMIP6 models improve the representation of seasonal precipitation in South America with respect to CMIP3 and CMIP5 (Arias et al 2021b;Dias and Reboita 2021;Ortega et al 2021) although systematic large-scale biases such as the double Intertropical Convergence Zone still persist (Tian and Dong 2020;Ortega et al 2021).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

et al. 2021

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We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

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Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 52%

Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 69%

Section: Reference Period (1994-2015) Comparisonsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

et al. 2021

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The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: A path to extinction?

Meireles

Lopes

Brito

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Global changes increasingly worry researchers and policymakers and may have irreversible impacts on Earth's biodiversity. Similar to other phytophysiognomies, natural grasslands suffer from the effects of land use changes and rising temperatures, threatening animal and plant communities. Birds, being very sensitive to these changes, are widely studied and fundamental to understand the dynamics of ecosystems in relation to climate and land use changes. The Campo Miner Geositta poeciloptera is a grassland bird endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado and threatened with extinction that has been widely studied in recent years. We analyze the decrease in its extent of occurrence (EOO) and the effects of climate and land use change to understand the environmental suitability of the species in current and future scenarios. We used 5 common algorithms to produce ecological niche models. For future predictions, we use two general circulation models for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies, an optimistic (ssp245) and a pessimistic (ssp585), plus two land use models focusing on increasing farmlands and reducing native grasslands. The current EOO represents ~45% of that presented by the IUCN EOO. The models generated for the present were satisfactory (TSS = 0.77 and ROC = 0.90) and showed high environmental suitability in areas where the species is currently found and low suitability where it is already extinct. All future scenarios have reduced suitable areas for the species, and the models of a greater increase in temperature and increase in farmlands and a greater decrease in grasslands were the worse. Our results reinforce the need to care about biome awareness disparity and the importance of actively preserving grassy‐shrub areas. Apparently, the state of Minas Gerais will be the only stronghold of the species in the coming years; however, the lack of protected areas that guarantee its survival needs attention.

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Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Torres

Benassi

Martins

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Even if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near‐surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector.

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Present‐day and future climate over central and South America according to CMIP5/CMIP6 models

Cited by 111 publications

References 78 publications

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

The future of suitable habitats of an endangered Neotropical grassland bird: A path to extinction?

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

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