Pumped-storage project: A short to long term investment analysis including climate change

Gaudard, Ludovic

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.052

Cited by 24 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…This is a topical issue and various methods are developed to tackle this issue. For instance, [50] provide a sensitivity analysis to some price parameters for an alpine hydropower plant. Reference [51] makes an analysis of uncertainty for future hydropower revenue brought by climate change and electricity prices.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Hydropower Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower Production: The Case of the Toce River Basin

Ravazzani

Valle

Gaudard

et al. 2016

Climate

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Abstract:The aim of the presented study is to assess the impacts of climate change on hydropower production of the Toce Alpine river basin in Italy. For the meteorological forcing of future scenarios, time series were generated by applying a quantile-based error-correction approach to downscale simulations from two regional climate models to point scale. Beside a general temperature increase, climate models simulate an increase of mean annual precipitation distributed over spring, autumn and winter, and a significant decrease in summer. A model of the hydropower system was driven by discharge time series for future scenarios, simulated with a spatially distributed hydrological model, with the simulation goal of defining the reservoirs management rule that maximizes the economic value of the hydropower production. The assessment of hydropower production for future climate till 2050 respect to current climate (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) showed an increase of production in autumn, winter and spring, and a reduction in June and July. Significant change in the reservoir management policy is expected due to anticipation of the date when the maximum volume of stored water has to be reached and an increase of the reservoir drawdown during August and September to prepare storage capacity for autumn inflows.

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Section: Projected Changes In Hydropower Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower Production: The Case of the Toce River Basin

Ravazzani

Valle

Gaudard

et al. 2016

Climate

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“…Several studies were carried out on the impact of climate change in the Bagne Valley where the Mauvoisin power plant is situated (Gaudard 2015;Gaudard et al 2013a;Gabbi et al 2012;Terrier et al 2011;Schaefli et al 2007). So far, the operators have taken advantage of the glacier melting, which increases the annual volume of water.…”

Section: Field Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thanks to the reservoir, the power plant operator may, however, mitigate the effects resulting from the runoff seasonality (Gaudard et al 2013a). A new pumped-storage may even be built from 2040 on the surface released by the glacier and therefore increases energy production on the site (Gaudard 2015;Terrier et al 2011) …”

Section: Field Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

Gaudard

Gabbi²,

Bauder³

et al. 2016

Water Resour Manage

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Hydropower represents the world's largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of the electricity system. However, climate change and market liberalization may hinder investment due to the evolution of water runoffs and electricity prices. Both alter expected revenue and bring uncertainty. It increases risk and deters investment. Our research assesses how climate change and market fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on the uncertainty, rather than on forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means of a mixed method, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach uses established models in natural sciences and economics. The uncertainty is accounted for by applying various scenarios and various datasets coming from different models. Based on those results, uncertainty is discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis requires the assessment of a large panel of models and data sets. It is therefore rarely carried out. The originality of the paper also lies on the combination of quantitative established models with a qualitative analysis. The results surprisingly show that the greenhouse gas scenarios may in fact represent a low source of uncertainty, unlike electricity prices. Like forecasting, the main uncertainties are actually case study related and depend on the investigated variables. It is also shown that the nature of uncertainty evolves. Runoff uncertainty goes from variability, i.e. inherent randomness, to epistemic, i.e. limitation of science. The reverse situation occurs with the electricity price. The implications for scientists and policy makers are discussed.

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“…Like for most European PSP assets, the economic viability of current and projected Swiss PSP plant is threatened by the current low electricity prices [112,113]. The situation is even more critical in Switzerland due the government's decision to phase out nuclear plants, as this means PSPs will lose their original purpose.…”

Section: Switzerlandmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of the drivers and asset management of pumped-storage power plants historical and geographical perspective

Guittet

Capezzali

Gaudard

et al. 2016

Energy

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Pumped-storage project: A short to long term investment analysis including climate change

Cited by 24 publications

References 41 publications

Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower Production: The Case of the Toce River Basin

Assessing Climate Impacts on Hydropower Production: The Case of the Toce River Basin

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

Study of the drivers and asset management of pumped-storage power plants historical and geographical perspective

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