Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India

Sonali, P.; Kumar, D. Nagesh

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.034

Cited by 440 publications

(205 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…For detecting trends and shifts in trends in hydrometeorological variables, various statistical methods have been developed and used over the years [45][46][47][48][49][50]. Of the two methods most commonly used, the parametric and nonparametric methods, the latter has been favored over the former [49].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of the two methods most commonly used, the parametric and nonparametric methods, the latter has been favored over the former [49]. Among the nonparametric methods, the Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test [51,52] has been frequently used to quantify the significance of trends in time series [1,23,[45][46][47][48][49][50][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An extension of the MK method, called the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test, is widely used to detect the time (year) when a trend shows a shift (change in regime trend turning point) [1,20,47,49,56,58,60]. SQMK consists of sequential forward (u(t i )) and backward (u'(t i )) analyses of the MK test.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Zeleňáková

Vido

Portela

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:The objective of this paper was to analyze the temporal and spatial trends in annual and seasonal precipitation in Slovakia utilizing 487 gauging station data collected statewide in the period from 1981 to 2013. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test, which has been widely used to assess the significance of trends in hydrological time series, was applied to detect the significant trends. The Theil-Sen (TS) approach was applied to quantify the trend magnitude, and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was used to detect abrupt temporal trend shifts. In general, precipitation data in the study area have not changed during the last 33 years, and there are no big gaps. However, predominantly increasing trends in precipitation time series were found at most of the gauging stations in Slovakia. The results corroborate previous climatic studies in the area of central Europe. In Slovakia, there is evidence of different rain distribution from the monthly point of view. Decreasing trends were detected in December in the northern part of Slovakia, while the central and southern parts revealed increasing trends. Most of the stations showed increasing summer precipitation trends, especially in July. It is expected that the findings of this comprehensive study of precipitation trends over Slovakia will produce more insights for the understanding of the regional hydrological behavior in Slovakia over the last several decades.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Zeleňáková

Vido

Portela

et al. 2017

Water

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“…For this purpose, various statistical techniques have been defined and employed by researches. A brief review of these techniques (Khaliq et al, 2009;Sonali and Kumar, 2013) have demonstrated that parametric and non-parametric methods have been widely employed to detect significant trends in hydro-meteorological data. Among these, the Mann-Kendall test is one of the most widely used nonparametric method for detecting significant monotonic trends in rainfall time series.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trend Analysis of Daily Maximum Rainfall Series in Çoruh Basin, Turkey

Tosunoğlu¹

2017

jist

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ABSTRACT:In the present study, trends of daily maximum rainfall series in three time scales including annual, seasonal and monthly time series were investigated by using Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (mMK), Theil-Sen (TH) and Sequential Mann-Kendall (SMK) trend tests. These tests are applied to daily maximum rainfall data of five stations located Çoruh Basin, Turkey. The MK and mMK tests are employed to quantify significance of the trend, the TH test is used to determine magnitude of the trend and the SMK test is also applied for defining starting year of the significant trend. The results of the MK and mMK tests showed that there are considerable significant increasing trends of daily maximum rainfalls in months including January, March, July, August and October. However, significant decreasing trends were detected in daily maximum rainfalls of May and December. In annual and seasonal time scale, significant increasing trends were detected. The TH test also indicated that the highest magnitude of the negative trends was occurred in daily maximum rainfalls of December while the highest magnitude of the positive trends was found in daily maximum rainfalls of annual time scale. Furthermore, the SMK test revealed that the significant positive and negative trends mostly began in the mid-1980s and the early 1990s.Keywords: Çoruh basin, daily maximum rainfalls, mann-kendall test, modified mann-kendall test, sequential mann-kendall test, theil-sen test ÖZET: Bu çalışmada, yıllık, mevsimlik ve aylık üç zaman dilimdeki günlük maksimum yağışların trendleri Mann-Kendall (MK), modifiye edilmiş Mann-Kendall (mMK), Theil-Sen (TH) ve Mann-Kendall Sıra Korelasyon (MKSK) testleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Bu testler, Çoruh havzasında bulunan 5 adet istasyonun günlük maksimum yağış verilerine uygulanmıştır. MK ve mMK testleri trendlerin anlamlılığını belirlemede, TH testi trendin büyüklüğünü hesaplamada ve MKSK testi ise ele alınan verilerdeki anlamlı trendlerin başladığı yılları tespit etmede kullanılmıştır. MK ve mMK test sonuçlarına göre Ocak, Mart, Temmuz, Ağustos ve Ekim aylarına ait günlük maksimum yağış değerlerinde istatistiksel anlamda bir artış varken Mayıs ve Aralık aylarının günlük maksimum yağış verilerinde ise istatistiki anlamda önemli azalışlar söz konusudur. Yıllık ve mevsimlik zaman ölçeğinde ise ele alınan verilerde istatistiksel anlamlı artış trendleri tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, TH testi günlük maksimum yağışlardaki en büyük negatif (azalış) trendin Aralık ayında, en büyük pozitif (artışın) trendin ise yıllık zaman diliminde meydana geldiğini belirtmektedir. Buna ek olarak, MKSK testide bu tespit edilen anlamlı negatif ve pozitif trendlerin başlangıç yıllarının çoğunlukla 1980'lerin ortalarında ve 1990'ların başları olduğunu göstermektedir.

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“…Several approaches were developed in an attempt to address this problem (Kundzewicz and Robson [13], Khaliq, et al [14], Sonali and Kumar [15]). Among these efforts, the most widely accepted and applied approaches are Pre-Whitening (PW), Trend-Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW), Block Bootstrap (BBS) and Variance Correction (VC).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linear Trend Detection in Serially Dependent Hydrometeorological Data Based on a Variance Correction Spearman Rho Method

Wang

Chen

Becker

et al. 2015

Water

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Hydrometeorological data are commonly serially dependent and thereby deviate from the assumption of independence that underlies the Spearman rho trend test. The presence of autocorrelation will influence the significance of observed trends. Specifically, the positive autocorrelation inflates Type I errors, while it deflates the power of trend detection in some cases. To address this issue, we derive a theoretical formula and recommend an appropriate empirical formula to calculate the rho variance of dependent series. The proposed procedure of the variance correction for the Spearman rho method is capable of mitigating the effect of autocorrelation on both, Type I error and power of the test. Similar to the Block Bootstrap method, it has the advantage that it does not require an initial knowledge of the autocorrelation structure or modification of the series. In comparison, the capability of the Pre-Whitening method is sensitive to model misspecification if the series are whitened by a parametric autocorrelation model. The Trend-Free Pre-Whitening method tends to lead to an overestimation of the statistical significance of trends, similar to the original Spearman rho test. The results of the study emphasize the importance of selecting a reliable method for trend detection in serially dependent data.

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Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India

Cited by 440 publications

References 30 publications

Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Precipitation Trends over Slovakia in the Period 1981–2013

Trend Analysis of Daily Maximum Rainfall Series in Çoruh Basin, Turkey

Linear Trend Detection in Serially Dependent Hydrometeorological Data Based on a Variance Correction Spearman Rho Method

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