Risk analysis in Natech events: State of the art

Mesa-Gómez, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim; Muñoz, Felipe

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104071

Cited by 51 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…Pandemics should be recognized as triggers to process safety events similarly to Natech events (natural-hazard-triggered technological; e.g. climatic events like tsunamis, floods, hurricanes; geological events: earthquakes) ( Mesa-Gómez et al, 2020 ). Unlike Natech events, pandemics do not have a direct impact on the equipment and facilities (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the impact of a pandemic on the control of the process safety risk in major hazards industries using a Fault Tree Analysis approach

Ashraf

Imran

Véchot

2022

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

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The control of the risks associated with major hazard events is critical to the safe and continuous operation of the process industry. Over the last decades, the process industry has been successful at establishing and implementing robust Process Safety Management (PSM) systems to prevent and mitigate the consequences of such major hazard events. While there exist some industry guidelines developed relatively recently for events initiated by natural disasters and security-related threats, for initiating events like outbreaks of pathogens and pandemics, there is currently a clear lack of understanding of the impact of the restrictions and disruption caused by a pandemic on the ability of companies operating major hazard facilities to keep controlling the risks associated to their hazardous operations. Moreover, there is no industry guideline on how to account for such an impact in PSM systems for process safety hazards. The recent COVID-19 outbreak caused serious disruptions to normal operations that have challenged industry in their ability to control risks. The objective of this paper is to perform an analysis of the impact of a pandemic situation on the implementation of selected elements of PSM systems related to the identification and evaluation of the risks of a major hazard and their control. The approach chosen involves the analysis of the root causes of the failure of the selected PSM elements using a Fault Tree Analysis method. The findings provide the first steps in the establishment of recommendations for the upgrade of PSM systems to face events such as pandemics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the impact of a pandemic on the control of the process safety risk in major hazards industries using a Fault Tree Analysis approach

Ashraf

Imran

Véchot

2022

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

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“…To answer the raised questions, seven methodologies about Natech risk analysis with a quantitative approach were identified. The majority of those methodologies were found in the literature reviews on Natech events carried out by Nascimento and Alencar [2], Cruz and Suarez-Paba [3], Suarez-Paba et al [4], and Mesa-Gómez et al [7]. Table 1 presents the Natech QRAs considered in this work.…”

Section: Current Natech Quantitative Risk Analysis Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cruz and Suarez-Paba [3], and Suarez-Paba et al [4] carried out a qualitative meta-analysis of Natech research, analyzing the quantitative and qualitative approaches have been developed to address Natech risk management; more specifically, it was found that quantitative methodologies have been designed for earthquakes, while events like landslides and extreme temperatures have been rather scarcely studied as a leading cause of Natechs. Caputo et al [5] made an exhaustive study of the existing methodologies for the quantitative risk Processes 2021, 9, 40 2 of 14 analysis of the seismic impact on chemical process plants, reaching the conclusion that more complex risk assessment methodologies should be developed; Caputo et al [6] developed as well a methodology to estimate the resilience of process plants, applying it to the specific case of earthquake impact Finally, Mesa-Gómez et al [7] presented a state of the art about Natech qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative analysis methodologies for single and multi-hazard approaches. In this work, the authors highlight that quantitative risk analysis has been widely studied, although its application has been limited to floods, earthquakes, and lightning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advances and Gaps in Natech Quantitative Risk Analysis

et al. 2020

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The occurrence of Natech (natural hazard triggering technological disasters) accidents has generated a reflection about the need to manage adequately the risk to people, to the environment, and to the infrastructures subjected to natural events. For this reason, academia and industry have increased research in the process safety area in the last decade, strengthening quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methodologies for Natech events. However, these methodologies have some gaps that must be closed for a better decision-making process. In this communication a comparative analysis of the existing Natech QRA approaches is done, to highlight features and differences and to identify main gaps that should be addressed in future research. It can be mentioned that all the analyzed methodologies, which have been applied to floods, earthquakes, and lightning, are based on an initial one developed in 2007. The critical gap is that in all these methodologies, the final step is the risk calculation based on fatalities, and they do not consider the area-wide as an essential element in the risk analysis process.

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“…A cascading event is defined as a chain of events in which a primary event triggers a secondary event, which in turn can cause a tertiary event, and so on (Mesa-Gómez et al 2020). Therefore, cascading events contain four major entities, which are natural hazards, industrial plants, plant units, and hazardous substances (Girgin and Krausmann 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because the interdependency between Natech-prone facilities is the major characteristic of Natech accidents, damage to critical infrastructure causes a cascading effect (Theoharidou and Giannopoulos 2015). During Natech accidents, the risk of cascading events is generally higher than that during conventional technological accidents (Mesa-Gómez et al 2020). However, data on Natech accidents are limited, and the specific scenarios under which cascading effects occur have not been adequately conceptualized.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events

Cai

Marson

2021

Nat Hazards

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Because of the recent frequency of climatic hazards and extreme weather events, disasters caused by natural hazards are attracting increased attention from the governments, communities, and the public. Synergistic effects between natural and technological hazards have a significant role in risk assessment. To address these effects, a Natech risk assessment model based on a natural-technological-prone (Natech-prone) facility network is developed to clarify specific scenarios and assess Natech risk. A weighted and directed graph is employed to map out the industrial facilities and other necessary information emerging from the display. It is assumed that the final risk triggered by a natural event is the result of disasters caused by Natech-prone facilities. The decision weights of Natech-prone facilities are heavily dependent on the recognition of the interacting components. A subjective probability is applied to the expected risk utility function to overcome the disadvantage of objective probability, which fails to address the uncertainty found in irrational human factors. Fuzzy measures are used to describe the positive and negative synergistic effects caused by the interaction between Natech-prone facilities. In addition, a Choquet integral is incorporated into the method to deduce the positive and negative synergistic effects in risk assessment. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model, and comparisons and analyses are provided. This paper conceptualizes a specific scenario of a Natech accident. The use of an expected risk utility function for dependent disaster events is a new idea in the field of Natech risk assessment.

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Risk analysis in Natech events: State of the art

Cited by 51 publications

References 88 publications

Analysis of the impact of a pandemic on the control of the process safety risk in major hazards industries using a Fault Tree Analysis approach

Analysis of the impact of a pandemic on the control of the process safety risk in major hazards industries using a Fault Tree Analysis approach

Advances and Gaps in Natech Quantitative Risk Analysis

A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events

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