Roadmap for achieving net-zero emissions in global food systems by 2050

Abstract

Food systems (FSs) emit ~ 20 GtCO2e/y (~ 35% of global greenhouse gas emissions). This level tends to raise given the expected increases in food demands, which may threaten global climate targets. Through a rapid assessment, evaluating 60+ scenarios based on existing low-emission and carbon sequestration practices, we estimate that intensifying FSs could reduce its emissions from 21.4 to − 2.0 GtCO2e/y and address increasing food demands without relying on carbon offsets (e.g., related to afforestation and reforestation programs). However, given historical trends and regional contexts, a more diverse portfolio of practices, including diet shifts and new-horizon technologies, will be needed to increase the feasibility of achieving net-zero FSs. One likely pathway consists of implementing practices that shift food production to the 30th-percentile of least emission-intensive FSs (~ 45% emissions reduction), sequester carbon at 50% of its potential (~ 5 GtCO2e/y) and adopt diet shifts and new-horizon technologies (~ 6 GtCO2e/y). For a successful transition to happen, the global FSs would, in the next decade (2020s), need to implement cost-effective mitigation practices and technologies, supported by improvements in countries’ governance and technical assistance, innovative financial mechanisms and research focused on making affordable technologies in the following two decades (2030–2050). This work provides options and a vision to guide global FSs to achieving net-zero by 2050.

An Equality-Based Approach to Analysing the Global Food System’s Fair Share, Overshoot, and Responsibility for Exceeding the Climate Change Planetary Boundary

“…); cosmopolitan justice (global fairness; intergenerational justice); justice for the environment and non-human beings (ecological integrity; justice for animals); procedural justice (just processes); recognition justice (respectful treatment of others); and capacities (non-discriminatory capacity development). Based on the evaluation of >60 known low-emission and carbon-sequestration scenarios, strengthening food systems might reduce their emissions from 21.4 to −2.0 Gt CO 2 -e y −1 and fulfil rising food demand without relying on carbon offsets [ 45 ]. There have been some recent studies on the drivers of GHG emissions from food systems [ 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 ] and possible ways to mitigate them [ 53 , 54 , 55 ].…”

Healthcare Challenges due to Global Conflict Escalation Amid the Pandemic, Climate, and Economic Dilemmas

“…Approximately 80% of global carbon emissions are attributed to energy, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) (Bhardwaj, 2021). Current trends in global food systems would prevent the 1.5 °C target from being met and put the 2 °C target by the end of the century in jeopardy, even if fossil fuel emissions stopped now (Costa et al, 2022).…”

Transforming food systems

“…For having a 66 per cent chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C, estimates from integrated assessment models have suggested a limit of agricultural emissions (i.e. methane and nitrous oxide) of about 5 GtCO2e in 2050, in addition to decarbonizing the energy system and limiting emissions from land-use changes (Costa et al 2022;Willett et al 2019).…”

“…Emissions from tree cover loss are taken from Global Forest Watch (Curtis et al 2018). This selection leads to higher total emissions from food systems than Crippa et al (2021), Tubiello et al (2022), andCosta et al (2022).…”