Scenario analysis of urban GHG peak and mitigation co-benefits: A case study of Xiamen City, China

Lin, Jianyi; Kang, Joonho; Khanna, Nina; Shi, Longyu; Zhao, Xiaofeng; Liao, Jianhui

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.040

Cited by 50 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…For many years, the complex relationship between tourism and GHG emissions has become a hotspot of tourism research. As the country with the largest GHG emissions, China plays a crucial role in resisting climate change [3] and has promised to reach its peak total of GHG emissions by 2030 [4]. Tourism significantly contributes to the national economy [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry

Liu

Da-yuan

Huang

2021

IJERPH

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China has grown into the world’s largest tourist source market and its huge tourism activities and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are particularly becoming a concern in the context of global climate warming. To depict the trajectory of carbon emissions, a long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP)-Tourist model, consisting of two scenarios and four sub-scenarios, was established for observing and predicting tourism greenhouse gas peaks in China from 2017 to 2040. The results indicate that GHG emissions will peak at 1048.01 million-ton CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2033 under the integrated (INT) scenario. Compared with the business as usual (BAU) scenario, INT will save energy by 24.21% in 2040 and reduce energy intensity from 0.4979 tons of CO2 equivalent/104 yuan (TCO2e/104 yuan) to 0.3761 Tce/104 yuan. Although the INT scenario has achieved promising effects of energy saving and carbon reduction, the peak year 2033 in the tourist industry is still later than China’s expected peak year of 2030. This is due to the growth potential and moderate carbon control measures in the tourist industry. Thus, in order to keep the tourist industry in synchronization with China’s peak goals, more stringent measures are needed, e.g., the promotion of clean fuel shuttle buses, the encouragement of low carbon tours, the cancelation of disposable toiletries and the recycling of garbage resources. The results of this simulation study will help set GHG emission peak targets in the tourist industry and formulate a low carbon roadmap to guide carbon reduction actions in the field of GHG emissions with greater certainty.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry

Liu

Da-yuan

Huang

2021

IJERPH

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“…Lin et al . (2018) used LEAP to model both CO 2 and non-CO 2 emissions for the city of Xiamen, but projected the reduction in non-CO 2 emissions primarily based on reduced activities rather than through implementation of specific mitigation technologies or measures 30 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential

Lin

Khanna

Liu

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

Self Cite

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Forecasts indicate that China’s non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO2 GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China’s non-CO2 GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today’s cost-effective and technologically feasible CO2 and non-CO2 mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO2 GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO2 GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.

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“…In the existing literature, at the spatial level, Yang and Teng [31] and Wang et al [32] studied the impact of China's coal control policy (2010-2050) and non-fossil energy promotion policy (2005-2100) on SO 2 , NOx, and PM2.5 emissions. Bhanarkar et al [23], Dong et al [17], Liu et al [24], and Lin et al [33] all used 2030 as their target year and explored the synergistic emission reduction of air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, black carbon, SO 2 , CO, VOC, etc.) and CO 2 under the influence of the air pollution control policies or CO 2 emission reduction technologies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…and CO 2 under the influence of the air pollution control policies or CO 2 emission reduction technologies. Compared to the spatial analysis perspective, more studies focused on the industry or sector level, such as the power sector, transportation sector, and cement industry [13,[33][34][35][36][37][38]. However, most of the above studies analyze the long-term synergistic effects of a single policy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on an Implementation Scheme of Synergistic Emission Reduction of CO2 and Air Pollutants in China’s Steel Industry

Tan

Jun

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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China’s steel industry is an energy-intensive sector. Synergistic reduction of emissions of CO2 and air pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) in the steel industry has an important practical significance for climate change and air pollution control. According to the CO2 emission reduction intensity targets (CERO) and air pollutant emission targets (PERO) for 2020 and 2030, 28 types of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies (20 types of carbon reduction technology and eight types of air pollution end-of-pipe technology) were selected for examination, and a two-stage dynamic optimization model with collaborative implementation of PERO and CERO was built to assess the near future (2015–2020) and long-term (2020–2030) implementation plans for synergistic emissions reduction of CO2 and air pollutants. The results show that in the near future, the implementation of PERO will have a greater synergistic effect on CO2 emission reduction. CO2 emission reduction under PERO in 2020 will be 97 million tons (Mt) higher than that of CERO, an increase of nearly 26%. However, the effects of implementing CERO are better in the long run. Under CERO, the emission reductions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 in 2030 are 2.44 Mt, 1.47 Mt, and 0.86 Mt, respectively, and 7%, 4%, and 5% higher than the implementation of PERO. As far as marginal abatement cost is concerned, in the near future, the marginal abatement costs of CO2 and air pollutant equivalents are 1.06 yuan/kgCO2 and 133 yuan/kg pollution equivalent (pe) under PERO, which are 23% and 11% lower than that of CERO, while in the long run, the marginal abatement costs of CO2 and pollutant equivalents under CERO are 0.025 yuan/kgCO2 and 2.73 yuan/kgpe, about 96% and 95% lower than that of PERO.

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Scenario analysis of urban GHG peak and mitigation co-benefits: A case study of Xiamen City, China

Cited by 50 publications

References 23 publications

LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry

LEAP-Based Greenhouse Gases Emissions Peak and Low Carbon Pathways in China’s Tourist Industry

China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential

Study on an Implementation Scheme of Synergistic Emission Reduction of CO2 and Air Pollutants in China’s Steel Industry

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