Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western <scp>US</scp> streams to future climate conditions

Beer, W. Nicholas; Anderson, James J.

doi:10.1111/gcb.12242

Cited by 26 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…We have provided a mathematical rationale for experimentally observed dependence of Chinook Salmon phenology, not only on total temperature unit accumulation but on delivery of ATUs, and described implications of this in a natural river. This general result is demonstrated in other ecological processes, but is specifically relevant for responses to thermal variability (Ruel and Ayres 1999;Beer and Anderson 2013;Vasseur et al 2014). Across eight sources of variability in Chinook Salmon emergence timing, we found that the greatest source of variability FIGURE 2.…”

Section: Biological Response To Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 56%

Impacts and Implications of Temperature Variability on Chinook Salmon Egg Development and Emergence Phenology

Beer

Steel

2018

Trans Am Fish Soc

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The nonlinear relationship of egg development rates to temperature due to compensatory mechanisms in Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha has consequences for emergence timing in nonoptimal and/or highly variable temperature regimes. A mechanistic model of the relationship between temperature and development was used to better understand laboratory results on the primary effects of temperature variability leading to emergence. The model was then applied to a natural river system and used to predict emergence timing while considering additional factors associated with natural spawning such as an individual spawner's timing, the stock's spawning season, and spawning cue. In the natural system simulations, the largest source of emergence timing variability was due to interannual water temperature regimes and spawning date variation. Lesser emergence variability resulted from temperature variability, family lineage, egg size, individual spawner's timing, and spawning cue. An improved understanding of the role of riverine thermal regimes in inducing developmental variability can contribute to conservation planning and predictions of phenology under future climates.

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Section: Biological Response To Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 56%

Impacts and Implications of Temperature Variability on Chinook Salmon Egg Development and Emergence Phenology

Beer

Steel

2018

Trans Am Fish Soc

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“…The median daily temperature recorded from October to December each fall ranged from 10.0°C in 1983 to 14.4°C in 2014, with a positive trend over the 34‐yr study period (Fig. A.1; see Beer and Anderson , Isaak et al. , for more detailed analyses of temperature trends in this region).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Modeling composite effects of marine and freshwater processes on migratory species

et al. 2019

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Life histories of migratory species such as anadromous fishes make them particularly susceptible to composite effects of processes experienced across distinct habitats and life stages. Therefore, their population dynamics are difficult to quantify and manage without tools such as life‐cycle models. As a model species for which life‐cycle modeling is particularly useful, we provide an analysis of influential processes affecting dynamics of the Central Valley fall‐run Chinook salmon (CVFC) population (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). This analysis demonstrates how, through identification of covariates that affect this population at each life stage and their relationship to one another, it is possible to identify actions that best promote sustainability for this anadromous species. We developed a life‐cycle model for CVFC examining primary processes influencing variability in observed patterns of escapement from 1988 to 2016. CVFC are a valuable fishery along the US West Coast; however, their natural population is a fraction of its historic size, and recent low escapements have resulted in substantial restrictions on the fishery. Our model explains 68.3% of variability in historic escapement values. The most influential processes include temperatures experienced during egg incubation, freshwater flow during juvenile outmigration, and environmentally mediated predation during early marine residence. This work demonstrates the need, and methodology, for considering the interactions between freshwater and marine dynamics when evaluating the efficacy of managerial practices in freshwater and the ocean, especially in the context of increased environmental variability, climate change, and dynamic predator populations. The methodology developed in this study can be used toward improved conservation and management of other anadromous fishes and migratory species.

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“…By this reason, the distribution of cold-water species such as brown trout and other salmonids is likely to suffer a displacement in the lower limits of their range to higher altitudes and latitudes (i.e. Crozier et al 2008, Beer and Anderson 2013, Ruesch et al 2012, Eby et al 2014. The simulation of climate scenarios can help us assess the magnitude of the loss of suitable habitat ranges, not only in terms of the distribution range but also in terms of the physiological efficiency (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brown trout thermal niche and climate change: expected changes in the distribution of cold‐water fish in central Spain

et al. 2015

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This paper addresses the determination of the realized thermal niche and the effects of climate change on the range distribution of two brown trout populations inhabiting two streams in the Duero River basin (Iberian Peninsula) at the edge of the natural distribution area of this species. For reaching these goals, new methodological developments were applied to improve reliability of forecasts. Water temperature data were collected using 11 thermographs located along the altitudinal gradient, and they were used to model the relationship between stream temperature and air temperature along the river continuum. Trout abundance was studied using electrofishing at 37 sites to determine the current distribution. The Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4·5 and RCP8·5 change scenarios adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report were used for simulations and local downscaling in this study. We found more reliable results using the daily mean stream temperature than maximum daily temperature and their respective 7 days moving average to determine the distribution thresholds. Thereby, the observed limits of the summer distribution of brown trout were linked to thresholds between 18·1 and 18·7°C. These temperatures characterize a realized thermal niche narrower than the physiological thermal range. In the most unfavourable climate change scenario, the thermal habitat loss of brown trout increased to 38% (Cega stream) and 11% (Pirón stream) in the upstream direction at the end of the century; however, at the Cega stream, the range reduction could reach 56% due to the effect of a 'warm-window' opening in the piedmont reach.

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Sensitivity of salmonid freshwater life history in western US streams to future climate conditions

Cited by 26 publications

References 47 publications

Impacts and Implications of Temperature Variability on Chinook Salmon Egg Development and Emergence Phenology

Impacts and Implications of Temperature Variability on Chinook Salmon Egg Development and Emergence Phenology

Modeling composite effects of marine and freshwater processes on migratory species

Brown trout thermal niche and climate change: expected changes in the distribution of cold‐water fish in central Spain

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