Species distribution modelling to support marine conservation planning: The next steps

Marshall, Charlotte; Glegg, Gillian; Howell, Kerry L.

doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2013.09.003

Cited by 63 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…; Guisan et al . ; McShea ; Allen & Singh ), yet SDMs are infrequently used in marine management (Marshall, Glegg & Howell ). This is in contrast to terrestrial systems, where SDMs have been used to examine overlap between species such as the migratory saiga antelope Saiga tatarica or caribou Rangifer tarandus and risk (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ecosystem-based and dynamic ocean management) instead of relying on a single approach (Worm et al 2009). Telemetry data combined with species distribution models (SDMs) offer a novel approach towards examining management scenarios (Carvalho et al 2011;Guisan et al 2013;McShea 2014;Allen & Singh 2016), yet SDMs are infrequently used in marine management (Marshall, Glegg & Howell 2014). This is in contrast to terrestrial systems, where SDMs have been used to examine overlap between species such as the migratory saiga antelope Saiga tatarica or caribou Rangifer tarandus and risk (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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WhaleWatch: a dynamic management tool for predicting blue whale density in the California Current

Hazen

Palacios

Forney

et al. 2016

Journal of Applied Ecology

155

196

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Summary1. Management of highly migratory species is reliant on spatially and temporally explicit information on their distribution and abundance. Satellite telemetry provides time-series data on individual movements. However, these data are underutilized in management applications in part because they provide presence-only information rather than abundance information such as density. 2. Eastern North Pacific blue whales are listed as threatened, and ship strikes have been suggested as a key factor limiting their recovery. Here, we developed a satellite-telemetry-based habitat model in a case-control design for Eastern North Pacific blue whales Balaenoptera musculus that was combined with previously published abundance estimates to predict habitat preference and densities. Further, we operationalize an automated, near-real-time whale density prediction tool based on up-to-date environmental data for use by managers and other stakeholders. 3. A switching state-space movement model was applied to 104 blue whale satellite tracks from 1994 to 2008 to account for errors in the location estimates and provide daily positions (case points). We simulated positions using a correlated random walk model (control points) and sampled the environment at each case and control point. Generalized additive mixed models and boosted regression trees were applied to determine the probability of occurrence based on environmental covariates. Models were used to predict 8-day and monthly resolution, year-round density estimates scaled by population abundance estimates that provide a critical tool for understanding seasonal and interannual changes in habitat use. 4. The telemetry-based habitat model predicted known blue whale hot spots and had seasonal agreement with sightings data, highlighting the skill of the model for predicting blue whale habitat preference and density. We identified high interannual variability in occurrence emphasizing the benefit of dynamic models compared to multiyear averages. 5. Synthesis and applications. This near-real-time tool allows a more accurate examination of the year-round spatio-temporal overlap of blue whales with potentially harmful human activities, such as shipping. This approach should also be applicable to other species for which sufficient telemetry data are available. The dynamic predictive product developed here is an important tool that allows managers to consider finer-scale management areas that are more economically feasible and socially acceptable.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

WhaleWatch: a dynamic management tool for predicting blue whale density in the California Current

Hazen

Palacios

Forney

et al. 2016

Journal of Applied Ecology

155

196

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“…Species geographic responses to the multiple effects of climate change may include resilience, distribution range shift toward the pole, where they would find more suitable conditions, and local extinction (Doney et al., ; Walther et al., ). Species distribution models (SDM) have been currently used to address these biogeographic issues for conservation purposes (Marshall, Glegg, & Howell, ; Reiss et al., ; Ross & Howell, ; Zucchetta, Venier, Taji, Mangin, & Pastres, ), assess the direct impact of human activities on ecosystems (Vázquez‐Luis, March, Álvarez, Álvarez‐Berastegui, & Deudero, ; Vierod, Guinotte, & Davies, ), and predict species distribution range shifts in response to climate change (Guillera‐Arroita et al., ; Tingley, Vallinoto, Sequeira, & Kearney, ). SDM relate species occurrence records to abiotic environmental predictors (Elith & Leathwick, ; Elith et al., ) to identify species suitable areas (Phillips et al., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Applied SDM studies to marine species (Duffy & Chown, 2017;Marshall et al, 2014;Robinson et al, 2011;Ross & Howell, 2013) may be also confronted with substantial limitations. Sampling bias, data availability, quality, and heterogeneous distribution are common issues (Guillera-Arroita et al, 2015;Robinson et al, 2011;Tessarolo, Rangel, Araújo, & Hortal, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Benthic species of the Kerguelen Plateau show contrasting distribution shifts in response to environmental changes

Guillaumot

Fabri‐Ruiz

Martin

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Marine life of the Southern Ocean has been facing environmental changes and the direct impact of human activities during the past decades. Benthic communities have particularly been affected by such changes although we only slowly understand the effect of environmental changes on species physiology, biogeography, and distribution. Species distribution models (SDM) can help explore species geographic responses to main environmental changes. In this work, we modeled the distribution of four echinoid species with contrasting ecological niches. Models developed for [2005–2012] were projected to different time periods, and the magnitude of distribution range shifts was assessed for recent‐past conditions [1955–1974] and for the future, under scenario RCP 8.5 for [2050–2099]. Our results suggest that species distribution shifts are expected to be more important in a near future compared to the past. The geographic response of species may vary between poleward shift, latitudinal reduction, and local extinction. Species with broad ecological niches and not limited by biogeographic barriers would be the least affected by environmental changes, in contrast to endemic species, restricted to coastal areas, which are predicted to be more sensitive.

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“…au/topics/marine/marine-reserves) which, at 3.1 million km 2 , is currently the world's largest. This new development provided a unique opportunity to test both (1) the relevance of mid-water stereovideography as a field data collection tool for the monitoring of offshore marine reserves, and (2) the validity of camera-derived sightings as input to species distribution models, a suite of analytical tools in growing demand to support conservation decision-making and aid reserve mapping and management (Guisan et al 2013, Barker et al 2014, Marshall et al 2014. Specifically, we designed a new generation of drifting baited pelagic cameras suited for deployment in regions of complex seabed topography and depths greater than 100 m. These were used to document the occurrence of pelagic species within and around the formerly eastern-most national park of the Perth Canyon CMR (hereafter ''the eastern park'', for brevity; see Methods: Study area for details regarding updated zoning arrangements).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drifting baited stereo‐videography: a novel sampling tool for surveying pelagic wildlife in offshore marine reserves

Bouchet

Meeuwig

2015

Ecosphere

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We present a novel system of drifting pelagic baited stereo‐video cameras that operate in deep‐water, topographically complex environments typically considered inaccessible for sampling. The instruments are portable, semi‐autonomous and inexpensive, allowing the recording of high‐definition video footage in near‐real time and over broad stretches of ocean space. We illustrate their benefits and potential as non‐extractive monitoring tools for offshore marine reserves with a pilot study conducted within the newly established Perth Canyon Commonwealth Marine Reserve, southwestern Australia (32° S, 115° E). Using occupancy and maximum entropy models, we predict the distribution of midwater fishes and sharks and show that their most suitable habitat encompasses a wider fraction of the canyon head than is covered by park boundaries. Our proof‐of‐concept study demonstrates that drifting pelagic stereo‐video cameras can serve as appropriate field platforms for the construction of species distribution models with implications for ocean zoning and conservation planning efforts.

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Species distribution modelling to support marine conservation planning: The next steps

Cited by 63 publications

References 29 publications

WhaleWatch: a dynamic management tool for predicting blue whale density in the California Current

WhaleWatch: a dynamic management tool for predicting blue whale density in the California Current

Benthic species of the Kerguelen Plateau show contrasting distribution shifts in response to environmental changes

Drifting baited stereo‐videography: a novel sampling tool for surveying pelagic wildlife in offshore marine reserves

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