Strengthening Environmental Foresight: Potential Contributions of Futures Research

Abstract

ABSTRACT. The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does not exist. We propose that futures research, a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that has been developing for more than 50 years, offers an underused but fruitful set of approaches to address this important challenge. A few futures research methods-notably several forms of scenario analysis-have been applied to environmental issues and problems in recent years. But futurists have developed an array of other useful methods for exploring possible, plausible, and preferable futures, important insights into the nature of change, and perspectives for thinking creatively and deeply about the future. We present an overview of futures research and its potential to enrich environmental planning and policy by offering a cross-fertilization of new ideas and approaches, providing a more complete view of emerging environmental problems, and facilitating the development of strategies to increase adaptive capacity and deal more effectively with surprises.

Ten principles for thinking about the future: a primer for environmental professionals

“…This framework is lacking in our everyday thinking, which is often haphazard and too narrowly focused on a simple continuation of current trends. Systematic futures thinking is also generally lacking among natural resource and environmental professionals and their organizations (Bengston et al 2012), resulting in a diminished capacity to adapt to accelerating change.…”

“…These principles and strategies are drawn from the transdisciplinary field of futures studies (Bengston et al 2012, Cook et al 2014 and the large body of work of academic and consulting futurists. The principles distill what leading futurists have learned through decades of study from a variety of disciplinary perspectives and theoretical frameworks.…”

Wildland fire management futures: insights from a foresight panel

“…Bell (1997) further characterizes futures research as an "action science," with an orientation to informing decisionmaking and action. With roots extending back many decades, futures research is now a mature field with a considerable body of literature, many specialized journals, professional organizations, and distinct methods (Bengston et al 2012). The goal of futures research is to produce strategic foresight, defined as "the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent, and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organizationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy" (Slaughter 2002: 104).…”

“…According to Williams (2013) This study offers a supplemental and alternative approach to the QFRs, exploring wildland fire management futures via methods and diverse perspectives from futures research. Futures research is a transdisciplinary social science that uses an array of methods and perspectives to examine alternative possible, plausible, and preferable futures (Bengston et al 2012, Cook et al 2014. The goal of futures research is to produce strategic foresight, defined as "the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent, and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organizationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy" (Slaughter 2002: 104).…”

Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

“…Scenario planning has a long history of being used to identify, discuss, and tackle complex and emerging problems (Kahane and van der Heijden 2012). It is thought that it can help to foster creativity, dialogue, and use of different knowledges (Bengston et al 2012), as well as explicit consideration of uncertainty, complexity, and the requirements for adaptation (Peterson et al 2003, Wright and Goodwin 2009, Game et al 2014). …”