Surplus production, variability, and climate change in the great sardine and anchovy fisheries

Jacobson, Larry D.; Oliveira, José Antônio Apparecido de; Barangé, Manuel; Cisneros-Mata, Miguel Á.; Félix-Uraga, Roberto; Hunter, John; Kim, Jin Yeong; Matsuura, Yasunobu; Ñiquen, Miguel; Porteiro, Carmela; Rothschild, Brian J.; Sánchez, R.P; Serra, Rodolfo; Uriarte, Andrés; Wada, Tokio

doi:10.1139/cjfas-58-9-1891

Cited by 35 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Climate‐sensitive upwellings of nutrient‐rich waters support huge catches of anchovies and sardines, primarily off Peru and Chile (Pauly and Tsukayama 1987; Bakun and Broad 2003). Catches of small pelagic fishes have been as high as 11 million tonnes per year, more than 10% of world capture fish production (FAO 2004), but show pronounced fluctuations in relation to changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Jacobson et al. 2001).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

et al. 2009

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Introduction 174Methods 175Spatial scale of climate vulnerability assessment 175The three components of vulnerability 175Exposure 176 AbstractAnthropogenic global warming has significantly influenced physical and biological processes at global and regional scales. The observed and anticipated changes in global climate present significant opportunities and challenges for societies and economies. We compare the vulnerability of 132 national economies to potential climate change impacts on their capture fisheries using an indicator-based approach. Countries in Central and Western Africa (e.g. Malawi, Guinea, Senegal, and Uganda), Peru and Colombia in north-western South America, and four tropical Asian countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Yemen) were identified as most vulnerable. This vulnerability was due to the combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts and opportunities. Many vulnerable countries were also among the world's least developed countries whose inhabitants are among the world's poorest and twice as reliant on fish, which provides 27% of dietary protein compared to 13% in less vulnerable countries. These countries also produce 20% of the world's fish exports and are in greatest need of adaptation planning to maintain or enhance the contribution that fisheries can make to poverty reduction. Although the precise impacts and direction of climate-driven change for particular fish stocks and fisheries are uncertain, our analysis suggests they are likely to lead to either increased economic hardship or missed opportunities for development in countries that depend upon fisheries but lack the capacity to adapt.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

et al. 2009

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“…Mature biomass tracks the population's resilience, as accumulated biomass from adults can sustain populations through times of scarcity (Warner & Chesson, ). Annual population production provides a good proxy for short‐term productivity (Denney, Jennings, & Reynolds, ) and has been proposed as a metric for detecting environmentally induced variation (Jacobson et al., ). Our goal throughout was to characterize, as realistically and faithfully as possible, the type of variability in recruitment and somatic growth as well as underlying population structure and demographic rates of each species.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Somatic growth contributes to population variation in marine fishes

Stawitz

Essington

2018

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Understanding population fluctuations is a major goal of population ecology. In unpredictable marine environments, population variation is thought to be caused primarily by varying survival rates through a critical early life‐history stage. However, there is increasing evidence that somatic growth variation is common and causes population fluctuations. We examine the relative effects of empirically validated variability in somatic growth and recruitment on two response metrics across eight different life‐history archetypes of marine fish. We evaluate how much variation is propagated into mature biomass (MB), a proxy for population resilience, and population production, a measure of population rebuilding capacity. Production is defined as the biomass produced by the stock above what is needed to sustain the population at a constant level. We used empirical estimates of reproductive success and somatic growth rate, coupled with a population model, to evaluate the relative role of both types of variation in population fluctuations. The effects of this variation on population production and MB were examined across three variation scenarios, in which somatic growth only, reproduction only or both processes varied temporally. We also examined three levels of age truncation to explore whether modified population age structure altered these dynamics. The contribution of somatic growth to biomass variability exceeded that of recruitment for some species (2/8), while in others (5/8 species), recruitment variation was more influential. When population production was examined, somatic growth variation contributed more to population variation for three species. The relative importance of the two processes was not clearly correlated with key life‐history traits (i.e., growth and mortality rates), but instead was determined by time‐series characteristics of growth and recruitment variation. Increasing age truncation slightly increased the relative effect of recruitment variation on MB variation for three species. These results suggest somatic growth variation can be as important as early life‐history survival in driving population fluctuations in some marine fish species. This analysis provides a counterexample to the commonly held assumption of many marine population dynamics models: That population variability is induced primarily through variation in reproductive success.

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“…Numerous studies indicated that the climate anomalies might have potential impacts on the dispersal of long‐distance migratory fishes (Chang, Sheng, Ohashi, Béguer‐Pon, & Miyazawa, ; Han et al, ; Jacobson et al, ). Based on the above analysis, an autocorrelation analysis was performed for the time series analysis of the year effect coefficient to explore the factors influencing the population trend of whitespotted conger during 2011–2017.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Population status and distribution of whitespotted conger (Conger myriaster) in Yellow Sea: An important migratory species along coastal China with limited data

Jiao

et al. 2019

Fisheries Oceanography

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Whitespotted conger (Conger myriaster) is a marine migratory species with important economic and ecological values in Northwestern Pacific. The population status and distribution of whitespotted conger may have changed in the eastern coastal water of China owing to the intensive fishing pressure and human activities in the past few decades. There have been miscellaneous concerns about its population trend and potential environment‐driven variations in spatiotemporal distribution. Delta‐generalized linear models, generalized linear mixed models, and a set of correlation analyses were performed to answer the above concerns, and a stratified random sampling‐designed bottom trawl survey from 2011 to 2017 in Haizhou Bay of the central Yellow Sea was conducted to collect samples. Our study suggested that whitespotted conger remained a relatively stable population status with slight fluctuations likely caused by climate variability during 2011–2017. The hierarchical generalized linear mixed models with spatial random effect performed better than the generalized linear model and the common generalized linear mixed models. Spatiotemporal differences of whitespotted conger were significantly associated with bottom water salinity, depth, sampling time, and space, which were probably mainly influenced by a combination of the Cold Water Mass, the Yellow Sea Warm Current, and the Yellow Sea Coastal Current. The predicted spatiotemporal distribution of whitespotted conger has a monthly variation matching its seasonable migration and an overall higher abundance in the deeper water than that in the neritic areas in Haizhou Bay.

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Surplus production, variability, and climate change in the great sardine and anchovy fisheries

Cited by 35 publications

References 16 publications

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries

Somatic growth contributes to population variation in marine fishes

Population status and distribution of whitespotted conger (Conger myriaster) in Yellow Sea: An important migratory species along coastal China with limited data

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