Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Shaaban, Mostafa; Scheffran, Jürgen; Böhner, Jürgen; Elsobki, Mohamed Salah

doi:10.3390/en11051117

Cited by 89 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Recently published studies on energy sector planning [43][44][45][46][47][48] have applied various advanced MCDA-integrating fuzzy methods for decision making support however not emphasizing assessments of risks in selecting best energy supply options, though study [46] applied AHP weighting uncertainty analysis for sustainability assessment just of coal-fired power plants and applied approach can be extended for all possible electricity generation alternatives, including renewable energy sources.…”

Section: Types Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development

2019

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This study is devoted to presentation of the concept of risk, and the possibility of applying mathematical methods in supporting decision making in the energy sector to promote sustainable energy development. The problem with risk assessment in the energy sector arises mainly due to the difficulty of expressing risk in numerical terms. To avoid risk, it is necessary to set the criteria and objectives of measurement before making decisions in the energy sector. The aim of this study is to try to fill in this gap by means of comparing decisions under risk conditions within models supporting energy decisions. The authors’ focus is on the problem of risk in supporting decision making towards sustainable energy sector development, which is the main target of the European Union (EU) energy policies. Without the ability to determine the probability of occurrence of certain phenomena and their inclusion into the model, it is not possible to determine how well the solutions resulting from the models are accurate, and what is the probability of their implementation under specific conditions linked to renewable energy development.

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Section: Types Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development

2019

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“…Then the MMR will be assigned to 1. By this explanation, maximum regret of plan k for EEC and GEC is defined as (28) and (29), respectively.…”

Section: Mmrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, a multi-attribute decision making (MADM) method [29] for co-expansion planning of a gas-electricity system is introduced. The proposed method is a useful tool for decision making about planning of systems with multiple independent operators such as a gas-electricity system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Attribute Expansion Planning Model for Integrated Gas–Electricity System

et al. 2018

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Gas-fired power plants are environmentally friendly because of their high efficiency rates and low CO2 emissions. On the other hand, the output power of renewable generators is stochastic, meaning that additional capacity must be held in reserve throughout the system. Gas-fired power plants are ideally suited to mitigate renewable uncertainties as they are more flexible and can easily be fired up in just a few minutes, and subsequently be shut down. Increased use of gas-fired power plants makes gas and electricity networks more dependent, so that adequacy in fuel supply of electricity network becomes a majority. However expansion planning of gas and electricity systems is accomplished by private gas and electricity companies, having no effective data exchange mechanism together. So there is a need to provide a model that coordinates the expansion planning of gas and electricity networks. On the other hand, expansion cost of either gas or electricity network and risk criteria of integrated energy system may have priority in decision-making process. With different challenging attributes, there is a gap in the literature to provide a model that takes into account the privacy of energy parties with a minimum data exchange, while considering different attributes in decision-making process. In this paper a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) method for co-expansion planning of gas and electricity systems is introduced. The proposed MADM method supposes that a central entity as Ministry of Energy (ME) is responsible for coordinated expansion planning of gas and electricity networks, while taking into account the privacy of gas and electricity energy parties. Decision-making attributes are conflicting and the proposed method selects the best plan based on a compromise among the attributes. Different attributes including gas expansion cost (GEC), electricity expansion cost (EEC), minimum of maximum regret (MMR) and β-robustness (β_R) are considered to find the best plan with regard to the preferences of independent gas and electricity network operators. In this regard, two multi-attribute decision analysis methodologies are employed: analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is used as a simple way to weight and rank all the attributes objectively and find the relative importance of various plans, and the weighted sum method to provide a general composite index and finding the final appropriate plan. A real case study in the Khorasan province of Iran, which has a high penetration level of gas-consuming generation units (GCGU), is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed MADM method. Results are compared with a Pareto optimal method to qualify the accuracy of proposed method.

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“…However, their study was conducted against a horizon of 2030 instead of 2050. Several studies apply MCA methodologies for different countries but focus solely on energy production technologies, instead of electricity mix scenarios: Shaaban et al [19] have studied Egypt, Bohanec et al [20] Slovenia, Štreimikiene et al [21] Lithuania and Promentilla et al [22] the Philippines, for example. Other studies have developed scenarios displaying different electricity mixes in combination with MCA but not for the countries/region in question: Klein and Whalley [23] studied the USA, Santos et al [24] Portugal, Strantzali et al [25] a Greek island, Mirjat et al [26] Pakistan, Santos et al [27] Brazil and Atilgan and Azapagic [28] Turkey, for instance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Electricity Scenarios for the MENA Region: Assessing the Preferences of Local Stakeholders Using Multi-Criteria Analyses

et al. 2019

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In recent years, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), including Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, have rolled out national policies with the goal of decarbonising their economies. Energy policy goals in these countries have been characterised by expanding the deployment of renewable energy technologies in the electricity mix in the medium term (i.e., until 2030). This tacitly signals a transformation of socio-technical systems by 2030 and beyond. Nevertheless, how these policy objectives actually translate into future scenarios that can also take into account a long-term perspective up to 2050 and correspond to local preferences remains largely understudied. This paper aims to fill this gap by identifying the most widely preferred long-term electricity scenarios for Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. During a series of two-day workshops (one in each country), the research team, along with local stakeholders, adopted a participatory approach to develop multiple 2050 electricity scenarios, which enabled electricity pathways to be modelled using Renewable Energy Pathway Simulation System GIS (renpassG!S). We subsequently used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) to capture local preferences. The empirical findings show that local stakeholders in all three countries preferred electricity scenarios mainly or even exclusively based on renewables. The findings demonstrate a clear preference for renewable energies and show that useful insights can be generated using participatory approaches to energy planning.

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Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

Cited by 89 publications

References 42 publications

The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development

The Concept of Risk and Possibilities of Application of Mathematical Methods in Supporting Decision Making for Sustainable Energy Development

A Multi-Attribute Expansion Planning Model for Integrated Gas–Electricity System

Long-Term Electricity Scenarios for the MENA Region: Assessing the Preferences of Local Stakeholders Using Multi-Criteria Analyses

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