Technology Foresight and Sustainable Innovation Development in the Complex Dynamical Systems View

Abstract

Information and communication technologies (ICT) which are transforming most areas develop non-linearly. Failure to take into account the nonlinear principles of complex dynamic systems hinders development of balanced innovation strategies. Companies and governments lose the ability to effectively respond to “grand challenges”. The linear approach does not allow covering a wide range of critical areas simultaneously in the scope of Foresight projects, prevents from applying an interdisciplinary approach to developing innovation strategies, correct risks assessment, and making informed decisions. The paper proposes a solution: management based on “cyber-physical systems” (CPS) built on dynamic complexity and nonlinearity principles. Such systems not only integrate computing and physical action but are embedded in everyday environment; they are more than the sum of multiple intelligent computing devices. CPS transforms into collective social systems, integrate information, energy, and material flows, and adapt to physical processes. Cyber-physical systems can offer a sustainable information infrastructure which serves as a prerequisite for building up the innovation potential of a company, region, or country. They make it possible to analyse all stages of an innovation project from the technical and organisational points of view simultaneously, cover all possible social consequences and challenges, and identify unexpected promising developments. CPS have a decentralised structure which allows to solve complex problems and manage large and complex structures in real time, such as an energy grid, transport, smart city, healthcare, etc.

Models and Methods of Formation of the Foresight-Controlling Mechanism

“…It has been established that high-tech development in a crisis and taking into account the standard understanding of VUCA factors of the external environment are effective when integrating their characteristics to better account for the resources of the knowledge economy. This is numerically confirmed by the correlation between managerial competencies, the quality of knowledge management and creative thinking by modeling the processes of effective functioning of knowledge networks in a number of studies [5,31,35,36]. Estimates of the foresight of future employment in the field of science, technology and innovation as a spiral of innovation in various configurations of the "knowledge triangle" were obtained [25,[35][36][37].…”

“…Separate use of foresight and controlling subsystems of enterprise development trends and the possibility of using the criterion of sustainability of high-tech development in knowledge economy systems were present, but there were no specific functions for integrating and combining resources of knowledge economy objects consistent with standard enterprise management functions. Mainly financial models of evolutionary increases in innovativeness of development based on foresight management in the "triangle of knowledge" or controlling strategic goals have been developed, and principles of building a controlling system and evaluating its effectiveness have been proposed [1][2][3][4][5][6]14,[23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33] and appeared, increasing the cyclical and strategic opportunities for improving the quality of managing the forecasting and for controlling the environment. The use of convergent models of cross-functional integration of enterprises with objects of the knowledge economy and the possibility of achieving stability in bifurcation processes of increasing the efficiency of innovative development were present, but the control subsystem of the enterprise and the complex became more complicated.…”

How do grand challenges determine, drive and influence the innovation efforts of for‐profit firms? A multidimensional analysis

“…The main theme emerging within in this quadrant is "Complex Technological Solutions," which comprises research topics such as complex dynamic systems, complex structure management, cyber-physical systems, and foresight as the key terms. The principal argument within this research is that solutions to nonlinear and complex problems can solely be found by creating systems built on dynamic complexity and nonlinearity principles (Mainzer, 2020). This theme also includes research that revolves around the research question of how foresight, as a communication platform, can help solve grand challenges (Gokhberg et al, 2017).…”

Digital capital as an indicator of the effectiveness of the use of digital technologies in the management of socio-economic systems

“…In addition, it is necessary to take into account possible unforeseen circumstances ("dark corners" [1]) that require improved management in the digital economy in favor of structural changes, including the capital structure of the enterprise. The process of digitalization itself is not always carried out "as planned"; it was assumed that digitalization would develop exponentially [2], become more active as the scale increases, but this did not happen; digital technologies are used quite actively by organizations and households (judging by statistical reporting and analytics), but the effectiveness of digitalization is still low. Process measurement tools are always important in management, perhaps in this case it is necessary to change the tools for measuring the effectiveness of digitalization?…”