Abundance trends of Hawaiian monk seals Monachus schauinslandi at 6 subpopulations throughout the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) have fluctuated considerably during the past 5 decades. Direct human impacts have been widely accepted as the primary cause of previous monk seal population declines and, consequently, much conservation effort has focused on minimizing these threats. Yet climate variability has been increasingly identified as a factor influencing monk seal demography. We endeavored to evaluate the relative influence of climate versus direct anthropogenic impacts on historic trends in monk seal populations. Periods of growth and decline in monk seal abundance at 4 subpopulations were associated with positive and negative phases, respectively, of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Moreover, PDO regime shifts were followed, after approximately 2 yr lags, by corresponding changes in monk seal abundance trajectories, especially in the absence confounding human impacts. We propose that the PDO is a proxy for varying productivity in the northern NWHI, the effects of which propagate vertically through the food web and are reflected in top predators such as the monk seal. Our results suggest that long-term dynamics of monk seal populations may have been driven as much, if not more, by climate−ocean variability as by direct human activity. In recent years, direct human impacts on monk seals have been virtually eliminated from the NWHI. As such, previous and continued detailed monitoring of Hawaiian monk seal demographics offer a unique opportunity to document and understand how future anticipated global climate change will affect marine ecosystems in the central North Pacific.
KEY WORDS: Pacific Decadal Oscillation · Monachus schauinslandii · Climate change · Northwestern Hawaiian Islands · Population dynamics · Anthropogenic disturbance
Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherMar Ecol Prog Ser 469: [175][176][177][178][179][180][181][182][183][184][185][186][187][188][189] 2012 change intensify (Overland & Wang 2007, Hoegh-Guldberg & Bruno 2010. Large-scale physical changes will alter marine biotic communities in ways that are difficult to predict (Brander 2007). Thus, clarifying the links between climate variability and toppredator population dynamics and, moreover, monitoring those populations into the future will likely be crucial for understanding impacts as climate change fully manifests in the oceans. However, for this process to be most informative, separating direct anthropogenic impacts from other factors, namely climate variability, is critical (Van Houtan & Halley 2011). Achieving this is difficult because of simultaneous occurrences of these influences, the possibility of non-independent effects, and typically incomplete data on the nature and magnitude of both natural and direct anthropogenic perturbations.The Hawaiian monk seal Monachus schauinslandi is a long-lived, large-bodied predator with a range extending more than 2500 km througho...