The Affects of Tourism Revenues on Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Abstract

After the end of the Eastern Block, The Turkic republics tried to solve the problems with the help of Republic of Turkey which they felt near to them. With his international experiences Turkey became the leader of the Turkic republics. Tourism revenues which is in the current accounts of the balance of payments, contributes to the development of the country by encouring both the employment and the growth numbers. The main reason of this is that the revenues of the tourism is both the main source in the financement of the foreign deficit and the budget deficit. In this paper the revenues of tourism is analysed by cross country panel study for Azerbaijan, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Macedonia with Turkey (1995-2011). We acquired the data of this work from the web site of the IMF. Unit root test was made to testing stability of data which are taken. After that cointegration and causality tests were made to learn if a cointegral relationship was occurred between the revenues of tourism and economic growth or not. As a result of this study we done, the data level is not stable. Because of that reason, we took the difference of them. In the study, we have been identified causal relationship between the revenues of tourism and economic growth in Turkey and other countries and we have been identified causal relationship between economic growth and the revenues of tourism in Turkey and other countries.

Relationship between Economic Growth External Debt: Application to Turkey

“…In the long run analysis carried out by ARDL method, it is determined that 1% increase in fixed capital stock, labor force, external debt stock and human capital improves national income by %0,31, %0,27, %0,13 and %0,46, respectively, in 1970-2016 period. In the causality analysis, while one-way causality relationship is revealed from labor force and external debt stock to economic growth, no causality relationship can be identified from fixed capital stock and human capital to economic growth. The results obtained from this study are consistent with the findings of Adegbite, Ayadi and Ayadi (2008), Gül, Kamacı and Konya (2012), Daud, Ahmad and Azman-Saini (2013), Özer (2014), Ijirshar, Joseph and Godoo (2016), Kutlu and Yurttagüler (2016), Kamacı (2016) and Jilenga, Xu and Gondje-Dacka (2016). The results are also similar to Bilginoğlu and Aysu (2008) in terms of the relationship between external debt stock and economic growth, but they differ in terms of labor force and fixed capital stock.…”