The Disastrous Effects of Leaders in Denial: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis in Brazil

Cabral, Sandro; Pongeluppe, Leandro Simões; Ito, Nobuyasu

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3836147

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Since Bolsonaro was not affiliated with a political party in the 2020 election, his supporters may not have had a strong preference for candidates running in local races. Thus, Bolsonaro's messages could influence both the spread of the disease (Ajzenman, Cavalcanti and Da Mata, 2020; Cabral, Pongeluppe and Ito, 2021; Leone, 2021; Fernandes et al., 2020) and electoral abstention. For this reason, we include in our models the vote share that Bolsonaro received in the 2018 presidential election as a proxy for his support in the municipality.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Perceived costs and benefits are likely shaped by political messaging, especially by co‐partisan messengers, and may thus fall along political lines (Samuels and Zucco Jr., 2018). Bolsonaro's politicization and rejection of Covid‐19 may have led his supporters to perceive fewer health risks; scholars found evidence that Bolsonaro's communications reduced social distancing behavior and increased case and death rates in areas where he had more supporters (Ajzenman, Cavalcanti and Da Mata, 2020; Cabral, Pongeluppe and Ito, 2021; Leone, 2021; Fernandes et al., 2020). However, it is unclear how negative personal experience with the virus—a key determinant of the severity of risk perceptions—would affect participation in a polarized environment.…”

Section: Casementioning

confidence: 99%

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Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

Constantino

Cooperman

Moreira

2021

Social Science Quarterly

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We investigate the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior. Specifically, we assess the impact of Covid-19 incidence rates, and the impact of temporal and spatial proximity to the crisis, on voter turnout in the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections. Methods: We use Ordinary Least Squares and Spatial Durbin Error models to evaluate sub-national variation in municipallevel Covid-19 incidence and voter turnout. We include controls for political, economic, health, and state context. Results: Ceteris paribus, increasing deaths in the month leading up to the election from 0.01 to 1 per 1000 people is associated with a 5 percentage point decrease in turnout; higher cases and deaths earlier in the pandemic are generally associated with higher turnout. Covid-19 incidence rates in nearby municipalities affect local turnout in the same directions. Conclusion: Higher Covid-19 incidence near the time of the election decreases voter turnout, while incidence farther from the election increases voter turnout.Globalization and climate change have increased the frequency and extent of extreme weather, financial and economic crises, and disease outbreaks (Baer and Singer, 2016). These multidimensional crises simultaneously encompass society, politics, and the environment (Gills, 2010), often with profound repercussions for democracy. They can also act as "stress tests," revealing the capacity and willingness of elected officials to respond and the political psychology and behavior of voters. The Covid-19 pandemic-a health and economic crisis-has had profound effects on the material and physical security of citizens, on psychological factors such as anxiety and risk perceptions (Dryhurst et al., 2020), and on public opinion and trust in science and political institutions (Bol et al., 2020;Schraff, 2020;Agley, 2020). The myriad impacts of the pandemic are likely to affect voter turnout and democratic accountability (de Koeijer and Parkinson, 2020;Achen and Bartels, 2017).The dynamics and motivations of political behavior during a crisis are complex. Changes in the perceived costs and benefits of voting can either increase or decrease turnout (Aldrich, 1993), and vote shares can shift as voters punish (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012) or reward incumbents (Cole, Healy and Werker, 2012;Bechtel and Hainmueller, 2011). While an election offers an opportunity to hold elected officials 2210

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

Constantino

Cooperman

Moreira

2021

Social Science Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…COVID-19 revealed a lack of adequate policies, preparedness, and education necessary to combat a pandemic and control further outbreaks [42][43][44]. Further, the implementation of rapid pandemic control measures was at times delayed [45]. Our results indicate that the policies and actions implemented by healthcare facilities and public health agencies were insu cient and many physicians recommended a need to strengthen healthcare and political systems to better respond to pandemics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Knowledge and experience of physicians during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A global cross-sectional study

Mansour

Rallapalli

Baidwan

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Physicians are on the frontline of the COVID-19 pandemic with responsibility to manage the disease. The aim of this study is to investigate physicians’ knowledge, attitudes, and preventative practices regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-19 vaccinations, as well as explore physicians’ recommendations for future pandemics. A mixed-methods online survey was disseminated to physicians globally. The survey was distributed via social media from August 9–30, 2021. Data collected included sociodemographic characteristics, knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards COVID-19, concerns regarding vaccinations, and perspectives on policies implemented. Descriptive statistics were reported, and qualitative data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. A total of 399 physicians from 62 countries completed the survey, with similar participation from High Income Countries and Low- or Middle-Income Countries. Most physicians (87%) revealed a good level of knowledge while only half (54%) reported adhering to adequate preventative measures. More than half of participants (56%) indicated that the policies implemented to handle COVID-19 by their public health agencies were insufficient or disorganised. While most physicians reported increased mental stress (61%) and described their experience with COVID-19 using negative terminology (63%), the majority of physicians (87%) indicated they are willing to continue working in healthcare. Physicians globally possessed good knowledge of COVID-19 and vaccinations; yet improvements in ensuring compliance with preventative practices is warranted. Findings from this study have important implications. As recommended by physicians, efforts to manage pandemics should involve (1) strengthening health systems, (2) minimising adverse effects of infodemics, (3) delegating decision-making roles appropriately, and (4) acknowledging global responsibility.

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“…One study indicated a higher number of cases and deaths from Covid-19 in cities where President Jair Bolsonaro had emerged victorious in the 2018 elections, furthermore demonstrating a worsening of cases and deaths after speeches relativizing pandemic care and encouraging the use of unproven medications in cities where there was broad support for Bolsonaro compared to cities where there was little support for him (Cabral et al, 2021). In addition, studies developed in Brazil have shown on the one hand a mediation of conspiratorial beliefs between political orientation and vaccination intention (Galli & Modesto, 2021), and on the other hand, a direct relationship between political orientation and engagement in social isolation measures (Modesto et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“It’s true! I saw it on WhatsApp”: Social Media, Covid-19, and Political-Ideological Orientation in Brazil

2022

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The Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil was widely affected by politics and the population’s consumption of information is fundamental to understanding the situation. This study aimed at understanding the relationship between political-ideological markers, consumption of information, and preventive practices during the pandemic. We conducted an online survey with 1,328 Brazilians who answered a questionnaire about authoritarianism, conservatism, political orientation, trust in social media, and preventive practices during the pandemic The results indicate that right-wing and centrist individuals, with higher authoritarianism or higher conservatism scores, put significantly more trust in the information about Covid-19 conveyed through WhatsApp and less trust in the information conveyed through traditional media, in comparison with left-wing individuals or individuals with low scores for these factors. Additionally, these elements were closely associated with worse practices concerning the use of masks, practices of social distancing, and the intention of being vaccinated. The findings warn of the impacts of fake news in health practices during the pandemic.

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The Disastrous Effects of Leaders in Denial: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis in Brazil

Cited by 26 publications

References 21 publications

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

Knowledge and experience of physicians during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A global cross-sectional study

“It’s true! I saw it on WhatsApp”: Social Media, Covid-19, and Political-Ideological Orientation in Brazil

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