The Influence of Meteorological Factors on Wheat and Rice Yields in China

Abstract

In this study, our primary objective was to explore the effects of meteorological change on crop yield by analyzing conditions for midseason rice (Oryza sativa L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in China. We conducted a detailed exploration of the relationship between yield and meteorological factors at different growing stages; specifically, the crop yield of >2000 Chinese administrative counties from 1980 to 2012 and the day‐degree data from 2481 weather stations were carefully analyzed. We first investigated the tendencies and the fluctuation ratios per unit yield to identify the differences in Chinese crops according to cultivar and region and the causes of these differences. We then determined the exact relationships between yield and meteorological factors at different growth stages via data association analysis. We also found time and spatial distribution patterns for crop yield and then established the meteorological factors influencing each index through quantitative analysis. We found that the yields of rice and wheat have witnessed steady growth in China in recent decades, and the stability of rice production has outweighed that of wheat. China's rice yield in the northeastern region at the emergence stage is greatly influenced by temperature, whereas it is during the grain‐filling stage that China's wheat yield is significantly affected by temperature. By obtaining real‐time agricultural meteorological information, crop production can be effectively and timely predicted, and more refined and scientific field management can be achieved according to the degree of importance of meteorological factors during different periods to increase crop production.

Effect of Indian Ocean–Pacific SST Pattern in Autumn on Winter Wheat Climatic Yield in the North China Plain in the Following Year and a Possible Mechanism

“…Thus, precipitation and soil moisture play an important role in winter wheat production from emergence to the turning-green and jointing stages. Hence, our results demonstrate that water supply conditions during the vegetative growth phase are closely linked to winter wheat growth and yield, in agreement with previous work 5,17 .…”

“…Zhuang et al . 17 found that in northern China, higher temperatures during the seeding and emergence stages result in a reduced yield of winter wheat. The rate of yield decrease was about –40 kg ha −1 °C −1 .…”

“…In addition, Zhuang et al . 17 reported that the primary winter wheat growing region in North China is suffering from severe water shortages and irrigation deficiencies. Thus, drought plays an important role in NCP winter wheat yield.…”

“…Adding complexity to the situation, the same climatic factors during the various development phases of winter wheat have different effects on yield. For example, in the seeding and emergence stages in the NCP, winter wheat yield is expected to decrease as temperature increases, and solar radiation has a negative correlation with winter wheat yield during these periods 17–19 . However, in the tillering, over-winter and heading stages, a positive correlation between temperature and winter wheat yield has been found in the NCP 17 .…”

“…This period covers autumn, winter, and early spring, which is the dry season in the NCP. Thus, Chinese farmers often say that “rain in spring is as rare as oil” 17 . Many researchers have focused on how local climatic factors affect winter wheat yield in the NCP, but the factors that influence the local climate during the NCP winter wheat growing season have yet to be investigated.…”