The long‐term economic implications of Brexit for Scotland: An interregional analysis

Abstract

This paper offers a cautionary tale about the economic cost of European disintegration. Scotland provides an interesting twist on that story as somewhere that voted to remain part of the EU, but is now likely to be negatively affected, even though it is less directly exposed to EU trade than the UK. This occurs even if it were to achieve the softer Brexit with continued single market membership to which it aspires. The analysis includes potentially important lessons for the many nations and regions in which there exists pressures to move away from trade liberalization and towards protectionism.

How serious is a devolved data deficit? A Welsh perspective

“…Undoubtedly the better quality economic accounts available in Scotland has enabled greater levels of economic modeling work, and developed macroeconomic models for Scotland have seen numerous uses over the years. In the run up to the 2014 independence referendum the outputs of these economic models informed the respective economic arguments put forward by both sides (Lisenkova and Merette, 2013), and more recently such models have been used to estimate the economic implications of Brexit for Scotland (Figus et al, 2017). However even in the case of Scotland the paucity of some regional economic data has been recognized.…”

“…However even in the case of Scotland the paucity of some regional economic data has been recognized. Figus et al (2017) comment that:…”

“…However, even in the case of Scotland the paucity of some regional economic data has been recognised. Figus et al (2017) comment that: 'The need for greater coverage of Scottish trade should be an urgent priority for both the Scottish and UK Governments'.…”

UK analysts’ and policy-makers’ perspectives on Brexit: challenges, priorities and opportunities for subnational areas

“…Nevertheless, to the Welsh Leave (52.5%) voters, 'the EU was seen as the embodiment of the distant, unaccountable political elite', and they choose to vote against this (p. 828). In contrast, 62% of Scottish votes were to remain but share the economic concerns around the direct, indirect and induced impacts from leaving (Figus et al, 2018). The specific economic and trade-related issues for Northern Ireland are more complex and significant because of the border issue with the Republic of Ireland.…”

The impact of EU Eastern enlargement on urban growth and decline: New insights from Germany's Eastern border

“…If so, were there any differences between different types of border locations and what were the channels of this effect? Those questions are not only of historical and theoretical interest but also can contribute to very recent debates, as the UK's 2016 vote to leave the EU gave rise to a growing body of scientific papers, discussing the potential regional economic effects of the “Brexit” (Chen et al, ; Figus, Lisenkova, McGregor, Roy, & Swales, ; McCombie & Spreafico, ) as well as potential further EU dismembering processes (Capello, Caragliu, & Fratesi, ).…”