The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Nilsson, Måns; Nilsson, Lars J; Hildingsson, Roger; Stripple, Johannes; Eikeland, Per Ove

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.07.010

Cited by 80 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Backcasting is especially useful because it allows for a tractable methodology to generate scenarios that dramatically diverge from baseline trends. However, most backcasted scenarios use visions of the future that are limited to aggregate descriptions of technological outcomes, such as greenhouse gas emissions, rather than rich narratives that explore the coupled nature of social-technical-ecological systems [21,22]. Furthermore, standard models that are built on equations calibrated to current and historical patterns essentially build in conventional patterns of development for the long term.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contours of a Resilient Global Future

2013

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Humanity confronts a daunting double challenge in the 21st century: meeting widely-held aspirations for equitable human development while preserving the bio-physical integrity of Earth systems. Extant scientific attempts to quantify futures that address these sustainability challenges are often not comprehensive across environmental and social drivers of global change, or rely on quantification methods that largely exclude deep social, cultural, economic, and technological shifts, leading to a constrained set of possibilities. In search of a broader set of trajectories, we combine three previously separate streams of inquiry: scenario analysis, planetary boundaries, and targets for human development. Our analysis indicates there are plausible, diverse scenarios that remain within Earth's safe bio-physical operating space and achieve a variety of development targets. However, dramatic social and technological changes are required to avert the social-ecological risks of a conventional development trajectory. One identified narrative, which is predominant in the scenario literature, envisions marginal changes to the social and cultural drivers underlying conventional growth trajectories. As a result, it requires unprecedented levels of international cooperation, alignment of powerful conflicting interests, and political willpower to bend technological change in a sustainable direction. We posit that a more viable and robust scenario might lie in the coupling of transformative social-cultural and technological changes, which set the necessary conditions for a transition to a resilient global future. While clearly a first step, our analysis points to the need for more in-depth exploration of the mechanisms and determinant forces for such unconventional futures.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contours of a Resilient Global Future

2013

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“…There is also additional scope to refine the representation of how actors and institutions interact, drawing insights from the literature on political economy and governance (e.g. [112]). For example, expanding the representation of institutional decision making to explore the effect of policy continuity and political uncertainty on energy transitions [113], perhaps using an explicit government actor.…”

Section: Limitations and Future Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

Strachan

2017

Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions

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The speed at which established socioeconomic and technological systems can be adapted to alternatives that are compatible with a climate stabilised, 2°C world remains unknown. Quantitative models used for assessing this challenge typically make a number of arguably optimistic assumptions regarding human behaviour and decision making. This often restricts the insights produced to futures approximating a so-called first-best policy landscape. However, empirical studies of socio-technical change have shown that technological diffusion is often influenced by actors and institutions interacting under less ideal, second-best conditions. This paper quantifies these factors in a formal energy model as landscape and actor inertia and employs them for the first time in BLUE, a dynamic stochastic socio-technical simulation of technology diffusion, energy and emissions inspired by the multi-level perspective. Using the UK energy system as an example, the results illustrate how socio-technical inertia may significantly blunt future efforts to achieve climate targets. KeywordsSocio-technical change; transitions; energy systems; modelling; decarbonisation; climate policy; Highlights We present a quantitative socio-technical energy transitions model inspired by the Multi-Level Perspective  BLUE is a stochastic system dynamic model that features multiple actors with detailed behavioural parameters  The feasibility of UK climate targets is explored under landscape and actor inertia  The results show that actor inertia may significantly increase the difficulty of achieving climate targets  The results also show the importance of taking socio-technical perspectives on energy transitions

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“…One way of bridging this gap and bringing research into policy-making could be to modify the research process. According to Nilsson et al (2011), scenario studies are unrealistic as long as they ignore political conditions. Although scenario studies provide valuable information, they provide insufficient guidance on reaching sustainability goals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although scenario studies provide valuable information, they provide insufficient guidance on reaching sustainability goals. Greater attention to how to actually reach the desired future is needed, and this entails understanding relevant societal and political conditions (Nilsson et al, 2011). An analysis of current policy-making could illuminate the actual possibilities for realizing future scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research on the topic of backcasting has established the importance of connecting to the policy process in order to improve usefulness Nilsson et al, 2011;Robinson, 1990). Banister and Hickman (2013) describe how scenario studies, defining desirable futures and how to reach them, may bridge the implementation gap between research and the policy process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport

et al. 2015

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This paper combines backcasting and policy analysis to identify the opportunities for and barriers to the increased use of renewable energy and energy-efficient vehicles in an urban road transport system, namely, that of Stockholm, Sweden, in 2030. The combination of methods could bridge the implementation gap between scenario-based research and actual policy implementation and thus increase the chances of research being implemented in practice. In the case study, backcasting identifies a need for diverse fuels and vehicles and for immediate policy action. However, analysis of policy integration demonstrates that such action is unlikely given current policy structures. The fundamental lack of integration between energy and transport policy obstructs measures to increase the use of renewable fuels and more energy-efficient vehicles, which in turn obstructs the reduction of CO2 emissions from transport. The combination of backcasting and policy analysis is demonstrated to improve our understanding of the prerequisites for transitioning to a system based on renewable energy, and could thus be useful in further research.

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The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Cited by 80 publications

References 25 publications

Contours of a Resilient Global Future

Contours of a Resilient Global Future

Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia

Bridging the implementation gap: Combining backcasting and policy analysis to study renewable energy in urban road transport

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